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Pattern Dazzling December

NickyBGuarantee said:
At first glance it looks not great but this is air that’s still plenty cold enough to support some winter weather with the suppressed storm track and blocking over top .. and the gfs is certainly playing with that idea right now .. cold enough for a thumping of snow with a dynamic system. Still gfs is a bad model so this is just eye candy but I won’t budge on believing anything it says until CMC but more importantly the euro agrees with it
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Oh yeah I agree. Currently there are caveats we can take away from the gfs but I trust it very little especially when the ensembles have not had its back. Obviously the nice little wound up low giving the deep south snow is fun to look at.
 
The 00z GFS looks very similar to that storm we tracked last year. Marginal temps that are reliant on the SE Canada Vortex. By the way, the GFS loves to pull the setup of overamplifying a low coming from the plains a LOT. I bet if I search through the archive thread, I could find several more.

Wintry - Winter 2021/2022 Model Archive

12z GFS 11/25 Nice Overrunning event! https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-thread-name.1009/page-7#post-483194
southernwx.com
 
Ollie Williams said:
The 00z GFS looks very similar to that storm we tracked last year. Marginal temps that are reliant on the SE Canada Vortex.

Wintry - Winter 2021/2022 Model Archive

12z GFS 11/25 Nice Overrunning event! https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-thread-name.1009/page-7#post-483194
southernwx.com
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Yeah except it goes a lot further south than the one last year if I remember correctly. I’m surprised the snow is that far south.
 
Stevo24 said:
Yeah except it goes a lot further south than the one last year if I remember correctly. I’m surprised the snow is that far south.
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Try the 00z CMC 1/11/2022 run. This one was even closer.

Wintry - Winter 2021/2022 Model Archive

12z GFS 11/25 Nice Overrunning event! https://southernwx.com/community/threads/december-thread-name.1009/page-7#post-483194
southernwx.com
 
I think if you loop the 0z GFS, the Midwest bomb on Monday and Tuesday, stalls and goes towards the Rockies and ejects East to become the SE winter storm a few days later! Crazy, crazy run! ⛄️
 
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CMC during the gfs fantasy storm. These models are a joke


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I think it’s fair to mention that we could be dealing with a bit of a warm up for a couple days before Christmas. All 3 major ensembles are hinting at it. They do have cold air moving back in on Christmas day! Will be interesting to see what happens. Surprising the EPS is the coolest. As long as the 0z gfs doesn’t happen
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I've looked at a lot of old winter storms from the past, and I can say with confidence that I've never seen one take this progression / path at 500mb that is shown on this 00z GFS run. The wave tracks from N California to Nebraska, makes a loopty-loop, extending back into Wyoming, then dives SE to Charleston. Highly unlikely to happen that way, but as the country song goes, "there's a first time for everything"

Anyway, as @ILMRoss alluded to earlier today, all of the models are struggling with this wacky, blocky pattern, not just the GFS. There's no better time than now to lean on the ensemble means...and even those aren't staying consistent

JfXlZh1.gif
 
griteater said:
I've looked at a lot of old winter storms from the past, and I can say with confidence that I've never seen one take this progression / path at 500mb that is shown on this 00z GFS run. The wave tracks from N California to Nebraska, makes a loopty-loop, extending back into Wyoming, then dives SE to Charleston. Highly unlikely to happen that way, but as the country song goes, "there's a first time for everything"

Anyway, as @ILMRoss alluded to earlier today, all of the models are struggling with this wacky, blocky pattern, not just the GFS. There's no better time than now to lean on the ensemble means...and even those aren't staying consistent

JfXlZh1.gif
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This is what I posted earlier. You can see it go back towards the Rockies, even on the surface maps!! Very bizarre
 
If worried about a warm up after this cold shot, read the CPC long range forecast discussion from earlier today. It notes the GFS is basically not very usable currently because it's improperly handling storms in relation to the -NAO/blocking pattern. That is causing it to have wildly varying results from run to run as it gets further into the extended. CPC said they aren't even using it in their longer range forecasts right now and instead are using the Euro/EPS.
 
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