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Pattern Dazzling December

Loganelliott99 said:
Definitely a warming trend around the 20th on the GEFS.
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I'd hardly call 2 data sets a "trend". This doesn't even mention how the skill of the GFS at this range right now doesn't seem very consistent. If you have an eye out at H5 or even that big blob of cold air you'd know there's at least consistency in a cold air push which should be the focus, not 6 degrees of cooling hours 11 days out.
 
00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through. I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow. Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it....
 
GFS next Friday afternoon has warmed significantly while the Icon has remained fairly steady. How they can be so different is crazy.

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Met1985 said:
00z op gfs looks a lot like the 18z. No real push in cold air. It's delayed a bit and just kind of bleeds through. I wouldn't even call it a cold front but a zonal flow. Again the ensembles have not been supporting this. If the Euro is right with blowing the front through then something is very wrong with the gfs. The freaking update broke it....
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At first glance it looks not great but this is air that’s still plenty cold enough to support some winter weather with the suppressed storm track and blocking over top .. and the gfs is certainly playing with that idea right now .. cold enough for a thumping of snow with a dynamic system. Still gfs is a bad model so this is just eye candy but I won’t budge on believing anything it says until CMC but more importantly the euro agrees with it
 
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