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Pattern Dazzling December

Webberweather53 said:
Sweet baby Jesus

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No kidding! Id say this is one of the best looks we've seen in years.
 
GSP is running +2 for the month with the worst behind us. The blowtorch of the last couple days +9 and +15.4 hit the average hard. But the next few days look seasonal, maybe slightly above due to overnight lows in the 40s. If the long range comes to fruition we may have to at least entertain the idea that our 12 year streak of above average December could possibly end.
 
We know this will change, but this general pattern is loaded with phasing potential. I think the vortex under the block has the potential to slide further east due to the trends discussed above with the precursor storm and TPV interactions (a positive) and be stronger, and if we can keep the energy diving down the ridge and take a suppressed track a big dog, phased Miller A bomb is absolutely one possible outcome.

ecmwf_z500_vort_namer_fh216-240.gif
 
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Hypsometric said:
We know this will change, but this general pattern is loaded with phasing potential. I think the vortex under the block has the potential to slide further east due to the trends discussed above with the precursor storm and TPV interactions (a positive) and be stronger, and if we can keep the energy diving down the ridge and take a suppressed track a big dog, phased Miller A bomb is absolutely one possible outcome.

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That's a nice split flow with a lot of cold air lurking nearby in Canada. I'm not sure I want to see the top of that ridge out west roll over like that, as it will direct the trough back towards the west. You'd get a nice phase over the Plains in that case.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_65.png
 
Rain Cold said:
That's a nice split flow with a lot of cold air lurking nearby in Canada. I'm not sure I want to see the top of that ridge out west roll over like that, as it will direct the trough back towards the west. You'd get a nice phase over the Plains in that case.

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I agree. I think (hope) this could be fixed if the vortex gets pulled further east. We know one thing for darn sure - we don't want the pattern to be *perfect* at D10 because there's no way we could hold that until verification haha.
 
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