Pattern Dazzling December

[NCSNOW]

Euro coming in a bit colder through hour

Doesnt have as good confluence in NE as GFS has. Close enough, where one should trend toward the other.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Doesnt have as good confluence in NE as GFS has. Close enough, where one should trend toward the other.

Yep. One frame it looks better, next frame it doesn’t. HP keeps swinging back and forth around 4 mb at a time. Really need this to get into NAM range to see what we have / don’t have to work with.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Getting there

 

[NCSNOW]

Grit hits nail on head with post above. Gotta set the table just right in NE on these CADs. Their benchmarks arent ours. Gotta get between 546 to 552 lines to get ice at surface in CAD. GFS is only op pushing ,pressing enough from the NE.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

12Z Euro was a big nod to the GFS for the CAD threat.

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro

GFS

 

[NCSNOW]

Notice the LP off NJ in GFS and NE of Maine in Euro. Affects position of HP

 

[LukeBarrette]

Table setter like we have been saying.

Get that snowpack up and wait for some energy to swing our way.

 

[griteater]

GFS and Euro are night and day different with the handling of the wave moving into the Central U.S. GFS dives western energy into the wave which weakens it. Euro keeps it consolidated as the western energy misses the Central U.S. wave

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

12Z Euro was a big nod to the GFS for the CAD threat.

Eh .. for Appalachians it remains the same everyone else gets cold rain .. per what climo tells us should happen .. unless this thing goes full Miller B like the gfs is trying it’s hardest to do, I wouldn’t bank on anyone else seeing frozen precip than the mountains.

 

[Rain Cold]

End of the GFS looks great! Merry Christmas!

It's one of the better long range patterns we've seen for cold. That said, we know with just about 100% certainty that it's way too suppressed at this lead. You see some kinks in the flow out west indicative of energy upstairs. It will get squashed with this look, but like I said, it's too suppressed. If this general pattern comes to fruition, there would be a chance for wintry weather here for sure.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Moral of the story. Models don’t know what the heck’s happening passed 200 hours

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro and Canadian suggest the upslope is in play on backside of the mid week event.

By the way the change is officially here at GSO. We have like one shot left to hit our avg High temp, maybe exceed by 1-2 degrees on Monday possibly. Thats it as we will hang out in the 40's for highs and lower than 40s for highs on multiple occasions through Christmas. Sitting at a cool 48 currently!

 

[Met1985]

Euro and Canadian suggest the upslope is in play on backside of the mid week event.

By the way the change is officially here at GSO. We have like one shot left to hit our avg High temp, maybe exceed by 1-2 degrees on Monday possibly. Thats it as we will hang out in the 40's for highs and lower than 40s for highs on multiple occasions through Christmas. Sitting at a cool 48 currently!

Yeah we've been missing our daily high here by 10 to 15 degrees this week. Sitting ar 46 currently.

 

[Met1985]

Moral of the story. Models don’t know what the heck’s happening passed 200 hours View attachment 125271

I'd say really anything 3 days out is fair game at this point.

 

[Webberweather53]

The 12z GFS pattern is pure weenie fuel.

As nice as that pattern looked on the GFS, the ECMWF just said hold my beer ?

 

[Webberweather53]

Sweet baby Jesus

 

[whatalife]

The Euro control has your storm…I think…?

 

[Hypsometric]

As nice as that pattern looked on the GFS, the ECMWF just said hold my beer ?

This is mouth wateringly good. Wow.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This is mouth wateringly good. Wow.

Let's hope we can get this look inside 240!