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Pattern Dazzling December

griteater said:
After the initial Arctic boundary storm that drops down mid-late next week, the Euro is plowing the closed low over the Great Lakes / NE up into the blocking Greenland ridge and breaking it down (less +PNA ridge contributes as well) - 1st loop

The GFS has a much better looking evolution where the closed low rolls up under the blocking ridge that retrogrades into Hudson Bay - 2nd loop

This slows things down and you can see how the next wave then starts to dig more sharpely thru the Rockies on the GFS (better) vs. the Plains on the Euro

This is a key piece to watch for with respect to follow-up storm potential which would be loaded with wintry potential if this could hit right given the influx of deep south cold air.

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This is what has me excited, is the follow up. EPS shows it nicely, well honestly every ensemble does
 
BHS1975 said:
Looks like the 3k Nam nailed the warm front today. Seems to be very good with warm noses.
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And it’s always been that way. It seems to be right with projected warm noses more than 80% of the time
 
griteater said:
After the initial Arctic boundary storm that drops down mid-late next week, the Euro is plowing the closed low over the Great Lakes / NE up into the blocking Greenland ridge and breaking it down (less +PNA ridge contributes as well) - 1st loop

The GFS has a much better looking evolution where the closed low rolls up under the blocking ridge that retrogrades into Hudson Bay - 2nd loop

This slows things down and you can see how the next wave then starts to dig more sharpely thru the Rockies on the GFS (better) vs. the Plains on the Euro

This is a key piece to watch for with respect to follow-up storm potential which would be loaded with wintry potential if this could hit right given the influx of deep south cold air.

i5xckdJ.gif


6wxCTTb.gif
Click to expand...
To me, the EURO has a much more likely scenario than the GFS but it IS known to hang energy back in the west too long, so there is some doubt about the end game here as you would expect this far out. The key is going to be the western ridging and how strong it verifies for most of us in the SE but the NE will score bigly either way. If you want snow anywhere outside of the mountains, we need the western heights to strengthen quite a bit
 
Hey Everybody, just in case you might not know it, if you want quote a post from this thread but respond to it in the Whamby thread (like, how much for Philly?), here's how you do it:

1) Select the +Quote at the bottom
2) Open the desired thread (eg. Whamby)
3) Below the text box, select Insert Quotes
4) Type comments
5) Select Post Reply

This enables you to get an imby question answered (or make whatever comment you want) without it getting deleted or moved.

We'll want to keep this thread as uncluttered as possible, particularly during interesting patterns and storm threats.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Looks like another shot of some more -NAO blocking possible in January.
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Yep, lots of signal for blocking. If we keep attacking the SPV, it's likely we'll have more fun to track this winter.

Welcome aboard, btw!
 
Rain Cold said:
Hey Everybody, just in case you might not know it, if you want quote a post from this thread but respond to it in the Whamby thread (like, how much for Philly?), here's how you do it:

1) Select the +Quote at the bottom
2) Open the desired thread (eg. Whamby)
3) Below the text box, select Insert Quotes
4) Type comments
5) Select Post Reply

This enables you to get an imby question answered (or make whatever comment you want) without it getting deleted or moved.

We'll want to keep this thread as uncluttered as possible, particularly during interesting patterns and storm threats.
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Sometimes I accidentally hit the quote botton without realizing
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Also more stress on the stratospheric vortex at the 10mb level.
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Yep, EPS drops another bout of high pressure into east Asia by day 10-11 (+EAMT) which extends the pac jet even more and pushes lower heights into the Bering sea-Alaska. This draws a Bering Sea/Alaskan vortex, which ultimately attacks the stratospheric polar vortex. EPS hinting at return of urals high end of the run. There’s a reason why 2021 had the SSWE, because this exact setup (Bering sea vortex) put constant strain on it weeks prior. Not really any signs of jet retraction in the future either as the weakening MJO wave traverses east and we continue to speed up the pac jet. Basically we’re gonna go for a strat attack the next couple of weeks ?30D70BBB-3FDA-49C9-9F29-D406E256905B.gifD42C25EA-0D13-4948-9F73-90861E0885BA.gif
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, EPS drops another bout of high pressure into east Asia by day 10-11 (+EAMT) which extends the pac jet even more and pushes lower heights into the Bering sea-Alaska. This draws a Bering Sea/Alaskan vortex, which ultimately attacks the stratospheric polar vortex. EPS hinting at return of urals high end of the run. There’s a reason why 2021 had the SSWE, because this exact setup (Bering sea vortex) put constant strain on it weeks prior. Not really any signs of jet retraction in the future either as the weakening MJO wave traverses east and we continue to speed up the pac jet. View attachment 126743View attachment 126744
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Great explanation Fro, thanks!

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, EPS drops another bout of high pressure into east Asia by day 10-11 (+EAMT) which extends the pac jet even more and pushes lower heights into the Bering sea-Alaska. This draws a Bering Sea/Alaskan vortex, which ultimately attacks the stratospheric polar vortex. EPS hinting at return of urals high end of the run. There’s a reason why 2021 had the SSWE, because this exact setup (Bering sea vortex) put constant strain on it weeks prior. Not really any signs of jet retraction in the future either as the weakening MJO wave traverses east and we continue to speed up the pac jet. Basically we’re gonna go for a strat attack the next couple of weeks ?View attachment 126743View attachment 126744
Click to expand...
Not impossible we keep the normal to below going through 1/20 or so before we pull the dreaded nina retrogression and the SER says hello
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, EPS drops another bout of high pressure into east Asia by day 10-11 (+EAMT) which extends the pac jet even more and pushes lower heights into the Bering sea-Alaska. This draws a Bering Sea/Alaskan vortex, which ultimately attacks the stratospheric polar vortex. EPS hinting at return of urals high end of the run. There’s a reason why 2021 had the SSWE, because this exact setup (Bering sea vortex) put constant strain on it weeks prior. Not really any signs of jet retraction in the future either as the weakening MJO wave traverses east and we continue to speed up the pac jet. Basically we’re gonna go for a strat attack the next couple of weeks ?View attachment 126743View attachment 126744
Click to expand...

Looking at the end of the EPS run. Pretty much all the members have decent oriented western ridge. Some members are muted to the south, but it’s there with almost zero showing a west coast trough. Some on the other hand have heights beyond 590dm.
 
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