Pattern Dazzling December

[SD]

Where’s all the good weenie runs we were expecting with this great patten?

Sometimes it can be a cold pattern and not snow, sometimes it can snow in a warm pattern, Sometimes model runs don't show snow for their run but it snows in that 10-16 day time frame, Sometimes models show a foot of snow at 36 hours and it rains.

 

[NCSNOW]

Canadian plasters upslope with a foot of snow on backside , GFS Nada.

Ukmet and Canadian ops are just above freezing, HP placement is diff so far compared to gfs.

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[FallsLake]

^^Yep, RDU shows near a half inch of freezing rain, but that occurs with temps of 31/32 degrees. So the accretion would be very limited. Maybe (right now) something to look for in the NW Piedmont/Foothills. Need that CAD to build in stronger with some cold/dry air in the upcoming model runs.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Might not produce but that sure looks pretty on paper for the ENC folk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS was much colder surprisingly

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Now what I could see is us seeing some backside snow showers or just flurries as this is looking more and more Miller B ish .. that could be the saving Grace .. I would love to just see flakes fall in December!

 

[CaryWx]

Really need to see where the 12z euro is on this thing. Stronger or backing off?

 

[Chazwin]

GEFS was much colder surprisingly

I’m away from my computer and can’t look at the individual members. Does appear to have strong support for a colder solution or is just a couple members skewing things?

 

[Webberweather53]

Gimme

 

[AJ1013]

Snow down to the valley floor in Downtown Tucson is looking more and more likely with every run. GFS and Euro have me picking up about an inch ?. Mountains going to get buried. 2ft+ possible in Summerhaven and the ski resort 1hr from Tucson!

IT’S HAPPENING!

 

[Hypsometric]

More and more of another piece of tpv diving south (which is what is disrupting the ridging west of Greenland). Does this trend continue? Can it actually interact with the storm system next week?

View attachment 125248

Hah, yeah we aren't done with this story yet.

 

[Chazwin]

Now what I could see is us seeing some backside snow showers or just flurries as this is looking more and more Miller B ish .. that could be the saving Grace .. I would love to just see flakes fall in December!

I could see that. Lots of energy flying around on the backside as the colder airmass comes in. We’ve certainly seen that some over the years. I’m with you about having a hard time seeing much outside of the foothills and nw Piedmont though… just not enough snow cover to the north yet. Now a few days later, that might be a different story

 

[CaryWx]

Hah, yeah we aren't done with this story yet.

View attachment 125258

I'm seeing weaker trend over eastern seaboard unless I'm missing something here.

 

[Hypsometric]

I'm seeing weaker trend over eastern seaboard unless I'm missing something here.

The wave is getting sheared in multiple directions. But we are in the middle of a HUGE model shift. There's a vortex diving like mad out of Canada and it's one/two more runs away from phasing in with our next week storm (if the trend continues), which could set off a bomb near Newfoundland and really set the stage for a suppressed follow up wave.

 

[CaryWx]

Thanks for clarifying

 

[griteater]

The wave is getting sheared in multiple directions. But we in the middle of a HUGE model shift. There's a vortex diving like mad out of Canada and it's one/two more runs away from phasing in with our next week storm (if the trend continues), which could set off a bomb near Newfoundland and really set the stage for a suppressed follow up wave.

View attachment 125259

It’s already there at hr234 on the GFS ?

 

[Mitch West]

incoming!!

 

[CaryWx]

It’s already there at hr234 on the GFS ?View attachment 125260

The next wave is in okie/north Texas I see

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Round 2 incoming…