Oh my 
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
also worth mentioning that despite me being a cheerleader i'll acknowledge models will be handicapped a little next few weeks with shorter wavelengths and a more amplified pattern. idk where to find those model verification charts but i would bet you'll see a dip from here onward as the models grapple with a weirder than average pattern. so i think the complaint of "man what the hell these models are way too wishy washy" is more relevant than usual
Just ice for the escarpment, but pretty insane trend here 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
When the ICON is even trending this way at this lead time, that’s a warning bell for me.
iGRXY
Member
Yeah, The NEGA, Upstate, and Foothills need to watch this extremely closely. Globals honking like this in the day 6-7 range with plenty of time to continue with more CAD is really interesting.
At this range, you can easily knock off 5 degrees in that CAD. We saw that with the ICON in the first storm last January
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Curious if that holds the next few runs. As you allude to, the ICON has a pretty nasty warm bias, and if even this model is hinting at CAD-induced ZR/IP, that's definitely a red flag.
NCSNOW
Member
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Yep all the ops are not so good on cad, even euro. The warmest is always ICOn and usually Can Op catches on 1st, sane with RGEM verse NAM. CAN OP to its credit was sniffing this out past couple days, not to the depth GFS is .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z GFS thus far looks even better than the 6z
Looking like basic climo NW piedmont and Appalachian’s as expected
Looks like it backed off.
Not bad for the norther NC Piedmont northwards. This was actually a better run for RDU and eastward:
Brick Tamland
Member
And here we go with this time period showing up on the models again. I think this one has real legs with how much it's been showing on the models off and on for the past couple of weeks.
Getting ready for that 33-36 degree rain were the NAMs suck us in the the long-medium range only to warm up last minute. We see these close calls every year and they always fall short
3 run trend. Like Nicky said, about what you would expect. 
Would expect a continued backing off of this .. no snow pack to the north and our cut off is near Chicago .. I’ll take NW piedmont and predominantly Appalachian mountains for 600 please!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Would expect a continued backing off of this .. no snow pack to the north and our cut off is near Chicago .. I’ll take NW piedmont and predominantly Appalachian mountains for 600 please!
Tend to agree. Your traditional CAD areas are most likely at this point.
Tend to agree. Your traditional CAD areas are most likely at this point.