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Pattern Dazzling December

Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s hard to ignore, GEFS/GFS trending to phasing TPV/energy the right way to allow a bomb off the eastern US which means more CAA on the backside of it View attachment 125219
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The GFS and the CMC both wreck the -NAO after the table setter which is ugly. What I would expect to see is closer to the ICON here with the blocked flow maintaining itself with these slow bowling balls trekking east underneath, but who knows. Model chaos, and it will continue

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As much as I’d like to get excited about that run we do have to realize the snow pack isn’t there up north and we’re talking first CAD event of the season .. id temper expectations right now and assume climatological regions in the NW piedmont and Appalachian’s should start paying close attention. For everyone else we monitor closely for future trends.
 
griteater said:
The GFS and the CMC both wreck the -NAO after the table setter which is ugly. What I would expect to see is closer to the ICON here with the blocked flow maintaining itself with these slow bowling balls trekking east underneath, but who knows. Model chaos, and it will continue

View attachment 125226
Click to expand...
Sometimes a -EPO puts strain on a -NAO because Arctic energy is trying to plow through the blocking to dive down, but yeah not the best OP runs tonight honestly
 
griteater said:
The GFS and the CMC both wreck the -NAO after the table setter which is ugly. What I would expect to see is closer to the ICON here with the blocked flow maintaining itself with these slow bowling balls trekking east underneath, but who knows. Model chaos, and it will continue

View attachment 125226
Click to expand...
No kidding went from A to F real quick .. have to believe that’s a little fluky but we watch. 4FAD10EE-1466-4942-AD74-711F4F3439BA.jpeg9A7E4AB2-43A6-4DAD-B960-4EE98260C2A0.jpeg
 
griteater said:
Early Jan 2018 is the one that stands out to me. There were some places like Greenville, NC that recorded it's coldest 12 day stretch or so of any winter period ever, dating back to the late 1800's. People were skating on ponds and creeks. Hard to imagine we will ever see those kinds of things again, but who knows. I made sure to take pictures / videos during that stretch of stuff frozen everywhere
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AB6D9385-43C7-4146-98FE-9AF4A00DBFE0.jpeg68812F19-0577-4875-83ED-18FFEA44C4DE.jpeg
Was a great stretch of cold! (‘18) in Greenville!
 
Sleet saves the day. What an Big Ticket Storm if GFS was correct at 6z. Starts here late wed. New low forms off SC coast by Thursday evening and crawls NE, buries the Mid Atlantic (2 feet DC) and brings the goods to our upslope region Friday into Sunday morning.

All about that NE HP placement.

zr_acc.us_ma.png
 
I hope this ZR map from Dec 2018 is generally correct. I got about 0.1" of glaze in NE Charlotte after a big IP fest, but I remember hearing from one of my colleagues who lives in SE charlotte that they mainly got ZR and very little sleet. Really bad ice storm down in SE Mecklenburg Co to Rock Hill or so. Looks like that band of significant ZR went all the way up I-85 to the Triad.


December 8-10 2018 NC Ice Storm Map.jpg
 
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