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Pattern Dazzling December

00z CFS ensemble mean 500 mb
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Miller B's can produce but CAD situations are nothing to be really excited about for my part of the mountains. The CAD is very close but blocked by the range of mountains that are over 4000ft just to our east. 33F and rain is the name of the game for CAD for us.

A nice Miller A with cold air in place would be awesome but damn. These models are going to have a hard time for a few more "minutes".
 
ILMRoss said:
CAD folks.. intepret this how you wish

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Responding to your post from yesterday afternoon. As we all know the overnight runs now show a colder solution for CAD areas. That may still not work out for a lot of us, but the real point is we can't believe any model details out past day 7 (or even less). --> A suggestion to everybody; we should create a thread that only focuses on model runs and forecast that are less than day 7.
 
I think the GFS is a bit extreme but the thing about raging -NAOs is they have the effect of spiking the punch bowl, it opens the door for extreme solutions. nice to have a thing to look at.
FallsLake said:
Responding to your post from yesterday afternoon. As we all know the overnight runs now show a colder solution for CAD areas. That may still not work out for a lot of us, but the real point is we can't believe any model details out past day 7 (or even less). --> A suggestion to everybody; we should create a thread that only focuses on model runs and forecast that are less than day 7.
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I have and continue to maintain a sunnier view of models; they aren't perfect but both the long range accuracy, as well as the ability of ensembles to generally illuminate the range of possibilities at hand, are remarkable in my opinion. Shifts like this are perfectly reasonable to me.
 
ILMRoss said:
I think the GFS is a bit extreme but the thing about raging -NAOs is they have the effect of spiking the punch bowl, it opens the door for extreme solutions. nice to have a thing to look at.

I have and continue to maintain a sunnier view of models; they aren't perfect but both the long range accuracy, as well as the ability of ensembles to generally illuminate the range of possibilities at hand, are remarkable in my opinion. Shifts like this are perfectly reasonable to me.
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Yeah, I guess folks here take that into account. It's just the rollercoaster of changes that have been depicted over the last couple of weeks have been maddening. If we had a hard cutoff of (say) 7 days, then have good folks like you provide some analysis, forecast perspective might be a little less chaotic. But it's all good...
 
CaryWx said:
Way out there so almost noise range but if that is an anchored or building HP (1033) and not retreating could be a winner. My guess is it's transient though. We'll see.
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Yeah it’s so far out there that it’s meaningless, but you still love to see it shown regardless.
 
ILMRoss said:
I think the GFS is a bit extreme but the thing about raging -NAOs is they have the effect of spiking the punch bowl, it opens the door for extreme solutions. nice to have a thing to look at.

I have and continue to maintain a sunnier view of models; they aren't perfect but both the long range accuracy, as well as the ability of ensembles to generally illuminate the range of possibilities at hand, are remarkable in my opinion. Shifts like this are perfectly reasonable to me.
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The gfs had traditionally been awful at picking up on CAD set ups and specifics. Maybe this updated version will be really good for CAD???
 
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