• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

243

Pants are gone
For some people here
 
LukeBarrette said:
243

Pants are gone
For some people here
Click to expand...
I’ve said it a couple times in the last week or so, but this is the time frame to watch between the 18-22nd. All the teleconnections look favorable and I believe there will be a sufficient snow pack in place to the north. Don’t get caught up in specifics like this one look yet…a lot of folks could be in play at this time
 
This first wave is interesting but I think you want it to set the stage for the 2nd potential around the 20th. That's where I think we have a legit at something. As others alluded, that large chunk of TPV diving southeast is about 1 run away from a phase in the 50/50 area and bombing off. That is a huge deal. Tons of confluence and CAD potential. That's extremely interesting to see where this goes and the GEFS signaling that stout of a CAD is also interesting.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve said it a couple times in the last week or so, but this is the time frame to watch between the 18-22nd. All the teleconnections look favorable and I believe there will be a sufficient snow pack in place to the north. Don’t get caught up in specifics like this one look yet…a lot of folks could be in play at this time
Click to expand...
Exactly. Looks like a wedge is at play here in NC. Either building, stubborn, or retreating.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve said it a couple times in the last week or so, but this is the time frame to watch between the 18-22nd. All the teleconnections look favorable and I believe there will be a sufficient snow pack in place to the north. Don’t get caught up in specifics like this one look yet…a lot of folks could be in play at this time
Click to expand...
Yep right now everyone should ignore surface features for the second wave. We are trying to get the Atlantic set for a suppressed second wave with good confluence over New England. If you can check those two items and have energy approaching with that in place, the odds are high for widespread wintry weather across the south. And we are so far out, the energy coming in the next wave will likely dramatically change as well anyways from how it’s modeled now.
 
Chazwin said:
I gotta say, I’ve never really payed a lot of attention to the CFS but it’s been fairly consistent on this pattern change and has been fairly good on the timing of it for the last several weeks
Click to expand...

I agree. It’s most likely overdone but still nice to see


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hypsometric said:
More and more of another piece of tpv diving south (which is what is disrupting the ridging west of Greenland). Does this trend continue? Can it actually interact with the storm system next week?

View attachment 125248
Click to expand...

Hypsometric said:
Hah, yeah we aren't done with this story yet.

View attachment 125258
Click to expand...
This is a great observation from Hypso on the trend loop. In a split flow regime, the most important piece (IMO) is the strong low / trough over / off New England as this is the feature, when properly located, acts to keep waves tracking into the S Plains from climbing north as Hypso mentioned. I've never been a big fan of the term 50/50 low because that term is very NE Blizzard - centric (low at 50N / 50W off Newfoundland). For us in the south, we typically want to see that low farther to the S/SW, but there are all kinds of configurations that low can take on. Also, a lot of times, there are shortwaves that track thru the Great Lakes and feed into this low that end up being critical for the maintenance of the low and associated timing with the approaching southern stream wave.

Last point - a big west-based -NAO block helps with the formation of these big lows underneath the block, but it's not the only way to get the job done as the other main way is to have a big ridge go up in W Canada as shown in Hypso's trend loop
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top