Pattern Dazzling December

[bouncycorn]

MMFS has Precip reaching north during the 17th-18th system but as all rain.

 

[Arcc]

Not gonna work with the last one. Getting too much return flow.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Not gonna work with the last one. Getting too much return flow.

Not sure why anyone cares at that point we are 300 hours out and we just saw multiple chances before that. Let’s just be happy at that!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

2018 Charleston bomb cyclone redux? @Meteorologist1999 gonna like this run

 

[Arcc]

GFS gonna throw another southern slider. Lost most of our cold air feed on this run, but it goes to show what to expect when the western ridge takes hold.

 

[buckinbronco]

GEFS definitely has a taller western ridge than 18z thru 180

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This ain’t even that far out anymore… the vibes to jan 2018 is serious

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Holy signal. FYI this is the first hit not what the gfs showed .. which comes 25/26

 

[LukeBarrette]

Holy signal. FYI this is the first hit not what the gfs showed .. which comes 25/26 View attachment 126503

Get this system to still be looking good at 120 out and we got our first storm thread of the winter.

 

[Arcc]

It’s voodoo but it’s hilarious. The GFS rotates the big block around the arctic before combining it with a new Scandinavian block and then starts rebuilding the GOA ridge.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

first system is starting to become a legit possibility, favoring the MA/NE due to tilt right now but we could easily trend this better or trend to some light snow

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

first system is starting to become a legit possibility, favoring the MA/NE due to tilt right now but we could easily trend this better or trend to some light snow View attachment 126507View attachment 126505View attachment 126504

I mean with the strength of this thing/ baraclinic zone .. we may not get the full force of it (although still possible) but we certainly could get an impressive clipper/ Ana front activity with this

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Mean highs are in the mid-upper 20s across the NC Piedmont on the 23rd ??

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Mean highs are in the mid-upper 20s across the NC Piedmont on the 23rd ??View attachment 126510View attachment 126511View attachment 126512

Quite the table setter ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Mean lows in the mid-upper teens, and these are means, THAT FAR OUT, bet there some single digit and below zero members, this is extreme stuff

 

[Arcc]

Well if Goofus is correct (haha) in sixteen days, we are about to start this whole cycle again.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

@griteater I would love to see another one of your updated graphics on tonight’s 00z models and the chance for a storm in that girded area you had. Would be extremely intriguing to see where it lies after tonight.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The wave after the day 10 system on the EPS looks really interesting. I don't have much hope for snow with the Arctic front, because it's really a cold-chasing moisture setup. However, it may end up working for the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic people. After that, the wave dives into Atlantic Canada, and an s/w digs behind it due to the +PNA. There are many similarities between the EPS and the composite for NC's Major & Historic snowstorms.

View attachment 126392View attachment 126394

View attachment 126392
Let’s see what the GEFS does here but it’s matching up nicely with the pacific

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 126392
Let’s see what the GEFS does here but it’s matching up nicely with the pacific
View attachment 126518

Looks like the mean trough axis is a bit to east, but nothing of concern that far out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You absolutely love to see it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Uhhhh ?

 

[Arcc]

Uhhhh ?View attachment 126527

Yeah, wow.

 

[jrips27]

I’m intrigued

 

[Arcc]

Well. That is something.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More digging and we’re in business

 

[jrips27]

 

[jrips27]

Mountain smoke-job verbatim

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Absolutely frigid euro run holy ----

 

[SD]

This euro run ? 971 off of NJ 1050 coming into the US

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Bigstick go freezestick

 

[SD]

Euro is probably going to leave us wishing it went to 384 with the vortex getting into 50/50 position and the shortwave moving into WA at 222

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is probably going to leave us wishing it went to 384 with the vortex getting into 50/50 position and the shortwave moving into WA at 222View attachment 126539

I was doubting the system before Christmas associated with the TPV, but man it’s starting to become rather close on some models and some ensembles on the gefs look good with it.

 

[SD]

I was doubting the system before Christmas associated with the TPV, but man it’s starting to become rather close on some models and some ensembles on the gefs look good with it.

I'll gladly eat the crow but I think for the majority of us that's primarily rain but it's certainly going in the right direction tend wise

 

[SD]

As long as the block near Davis strait holds the line the stuff near AK and NW Canada has to move through the flow. Storms chances would be well above normal climo for the week between Christmas and new years

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS looking good

 

[Arcc]

This may be greatest look I’ve ever seen.

 

[tennessee storm]

This may be greatest look I’ve ever seen.

View attachment 126546

View attachment 126547

If cold n dry weather is your cup of tea …. Yeah

 

[Tarheel1]

6z GFS is mostly dry across the SE, no snow at all, and not nearly as cold as last nights crazy model runs, through the 25th so far! Not nearly as cold up here either! Model mayhem!

 

[Chazwin]

6z GFS is mostly dry across the SE, no snow at all, and not nearly as cold as last nights crazy model runs, through the 25th so far! Not nearly as cold up here either! Model mayhem!

It’s still got a low in the lower teens on Christmas Eve in KCLT.

 

[FallsLake]

6z GFS is mostly dry across the SE, no snow at all, and not nearly as cold as last nights crazy model runs, through the 25th so far! Not nearly as cold up here either! Model mayhem!

Yep, verbatim it would still be an interesting run. But definitely not like last nights run.

On any normal year we would be going crazy about this (6z GFS at 12z on the 26th):