Pattern Dazzling December

[Myfrotho704_]

Forget wintry outputs right now, the first and foremost thing you need before we even think about wintry is cold. 18z GEFS is by far the coldest run yet for the 15-18th period. Let’s worry about cold first, need the cold to get the snow or ice, step at a time.

 

[Chazwin]

If this model is so bad, why is it still used. Why not just get rid of it.

In fairness many of this have been asking this question for as long as there have been message boards. In all seriousness though, it does have some benefit… typically it does very well in the 3-5 day range. It just seem very bipolar the further out in time you go.

Edit: case in point… now look at the 18z GEFS. Nothing like the operational as it’s by far and away the coldest run yet.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is how to get really really cold air across the SE or near the SE. Alaskan ridge at this point has built a big reservoir of cold air across NA, absolutely beautiful pacific pattern developing with a trough in the pacific flexing the ridge (cutoff in the pacific is similar to jan 2014/Feb 2015), evolution around AK reminiscent of some big pacific patterns the last decade

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I know we don’t care about individual members on the gefs and we’re certainly not at the stage of looking for wintry solutions right now as jay said we want the cold first cause that’s the only way you get good winter precip down here. But I have to say it certainly looked like an uptick in those wintry solutions 240+ (icy as well) or at least close set ups .. I like where we are heading

 

[Myfrotho704_]

if we get 2 incredible pacific patterns 2 winters in a row then that’s insane. It’s like 13-14 and 14-15

 

[Itryatgolf]

This gives me February 2021 flashbacks View attachment 125088

if we get 2 incredible pacific patterns 2 winters in a row then that’s insane. It’s like 13-14 and 14-15 View attachment 125185View attachment 125186View attachment 125187

Imo, it will be difficult to top 13-14 winter. -epo for most of the winter. I would like to see a few southern sliders so we can have some opportunity at winter?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

The GEFS was literally so good all the way to the end of the run


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

pattern change is entering the off runs of the EPS !!

 

[Arcc]

if we get 2 incredible pacific patterns 2 winters in a row then that’s insane. It’s like 13-14 and 14-15 View attachment 125185View attachment 125186View attachment 125187

To get so much agreement among members that heights north of Alaska are +1.5 sigma at hour 360+ is absolutely nuts. Massive -EPO on the horizon.

Edit: Sorry wrong image.

 

[griteater]

To get so much agreement among members that heights north of Alaska are +1.5 sigma at hour 360+ is absolutely nuts. Massive -EPO on the horizon.

The EPO chart from the Euro run caught my eye here

I think expressing interest / excitement about the upcoming pattern is totally warranted (of which, I personally am definitely interested). At the same time, it won't take much to screw things up....change the ridge tilt in AK, have less -NAO support, have a bit more troughing out west and a bit more SE ridge. Anyway, just throwing that out there. It's tough to get everything to come together. Not directing any of this to you Arcc or anyone else. Just saying there certainly are no guarantees

 

[BullCityWx]

not posted in a while...checkin in from nortwest alabama...like our chances in the next 3 weeks especily further west u go

Man it sure was warm down here around Winfield today though. Like a spring day.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

if we get 2 incredible pacific patterns 2 winters in a row then that’s insane. It’s like 13-14 and 14-15 View attachment 125185View attachment 125186View attachment 125187

2014 was stupid cold for a stretch. That’s the pinnacle for modern cold goobers. Those mornings where you wake up and it’s 6 degrees and the sky just looks different. Cold haze. Then you wake up the next morning and it’s 8 degrees. Everybody talks about how they hate dry cold but I don’t. Those mornings hit different.

 

[griteater]

2014 was stupid cold for a stretch. That’s the pinnacle for modern cold goobers. Those mornings where you wake up and it’s 6 degrees and the sky just looks different. Cold haze. Then you wake up the next morning and it’s 8 degrees. Everybody talks about how they hate dry cold but I don’t. Those mornings hit different.

Early Jan 2018 is the one that stands out to me. There were some places like Greenville, NC that recorded it's coldest 12 day stretch or so of any winter period ever, dating back to the late 1800's. People were skating on ponds and creeks. Hard to imagine we will ever see those kinds of things again, but who knows. I made sure to take pictures / videos during that stretch of stuff frozen everywhere

 

[Arcc]

The EPO chart from the Euro run caught my eye here

I think expressing interest / excitement about the upcoming pattern is totally warranted (of which, I personally am definitely interested). At the same time, it won't take much to screw things up....change the ridge tilt in AK, have less -NAO support, have a bit more troughing out west and a bit more SE ridge. Anyway, just throwing that out there. It's tough to get everything to come together. Not directing any of this to you Arcc or anyone else. Just saying there certainly are no guarantees

Absolutely, 100% agree. The -EPO alone has failed us many times. That said it’s good to have the offensive line on the field, if the QB(the PNA) and the wide outs(the shortwaves) act right maybe we we get a few TDs.

 

[Itryatgolf]

2014 was stupid cold for a stretch. That’s the pinnacle for modern cold goobers. Those mornings where you wake up and it’s 6 degrees and the sky just looks different. Cold haze. Then you wake up the next morning and it’s 8 degrees. Everybody talks about how they hate dry cold but I don’t. Those mornings hit different.

I know most want cold and snow/ice/sleet, but to have that we have to have the right pattern setup to allow that to occur. It's difficult getting the right set of ingredients to allow that to be realized. We in the south

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Early Jan 2018 is the one that stands out to me. There were some places like Greenville, NC that recorded it's coldest 12 day stretch or so of any winter period ever, dating back to the late 1800's. People were skating on ponds and creeks. Hard to imagine we will ever see those kinds of things again, but who knows. I made sure to take pictures / videos during that stretch of stuff frozen everywhere

That was a good one too Grit. The golf ponds were frozen over around here as well. This is the cold I’m here for.

 

[Itryatgolf]

Early Jan 2018 is the one that stands out to me. There were some places like Greenville, NC that recorded it's coldest 12 day stretch or so of any winter period ever, dating back to the late 1800's. People were skating on ponds and creeks. Hard to imagine we will ever see those kinds of things again, but who knows. I made sure to take pictures / videos during that stretch of stuff frozen everywhere

I remember that coldwave because highs were in the teens and my cars battery went dead as a door knob and had to immediately go to auto zone to get new battery?

 

[Arcc]

2014 was stupid cold for a stretch. That’s the pinnacle for modern cold goobers. Those mornings where you wake up and it’s 6 degrees and the sky just looks different. Cold haze. Then you wake up the next morning and it’s 8 degrees. Everybody talks about how they hate dry cold but I don’t. Those mornings hit different.

January 28th is etched in my memory forever, even over the 10 inches of snow in December 2017. I may not ever see four inches of snow on the ground at -3F in Clay County, AL ever again.

 

[Avalanche]

Early Jan 2018 is the one that stands out to me. There were some places like Greenville, NC that recorded it's coldest 12 day stretch or so of any winter period ever, dating back to the late 1800's. People were skating on ponds and creeks. Hard to imagine we will ever see those kinds of things again, but who knows. I made sure to take pictures / videos during that stretch of stuff frozen everywhere

Was this the same Jan that had a big snow for the western Triangle that came from the SSE?

 

[Itryatgolf]

That was a good one too Grit. The golf ponds were frozen over around here as well. This is the cold I’m here for. View attachment 125198

Polar vortex dropped into great lakes back then