Cary_Snow95
Member
Energy in the SW is interesting
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Great Lakes low disappeared lol .. this run could get interesting around Christmas or just thereafter ..
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This pattern has legit big dog potential around-just after Christmas.
The overall window in/around the Holidays-last week of Dec has certainly felt about right to me from a large-scale perspective & certainly fits in general with the prototypical La Nina winter evolution, as well as the analogs that have been discussed for a few weeks now (e.g. Dec 2010)
Big arctic cold front comes down in the days prior, firmly establishing a nice, deep-layer cold air mass & suppressing the baroclinic zone to the coastal SE & E Coast, where a trailing wave can take advantage + throw moisture back into the cold air. -NAO downstream slows the wave down & encourages it to cyclonically break/amplify underneath >> strengthening any would-be winter storm, while the +PNA helps suppress the storm track down into the southeastern US.
Today's 12z EPS & 12z GEFS means show a classic Miller A/coastal cyclone snowstorm look in the Carolinas, w/ the mean trough anchored in/around the TN Valley, west-based -NAO, & +PNA. Heck, we even have the ridge north of Alaska like the composite does.
Color me impressed.
Another intriguing climatological tendency I've noticed in reanalyzing storms like this, in the absence of a strong (often El Nino-induced subtropical jet) to increase available eddy potential energy (& strengthen + tuck in the low even closer to the coast >> allowing warm noses aloft to change snow to rain for those in Piedmont & Coastal Plain), these Nina Miller A storms tend to be historically kinder to folks around RDU & points east in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC.
The overall window in/around the Holidays-last week of Dec has certainly felt about right to me from a large-scale perspective & certainly fits in general with the prototypical La Nina winter evolution, as well as the analogs that have been discussed for a few weeks now (e.g. Dec 2010)
Big arctic cold front comes down in the days prior, firmly establishing a nice, deep-layer cold air mass & suppressing the baroclinic zone to the coastal SE & E Coast, where a trailing wave can take advantage + throw moisture back into the cold air. -NAO downstream slows the wave down & encourages it to cyclonically break/amplify underneath >> strengthening any would-be winter storm, while the +PNA helps suppress the storm track down into the southeastern US.
Today's 12z EPS & 12z GEFS means show a classic Miller A/coastal cyclone snowstorm look in the Carolinas, w/ the mean trough anchored in/around the TN Valley, west-based -NAO, & +PNA. Heck, we even have the ridge north of Alaska like the composite does.
Color me impressed.
Another intriguing climatological tendency I've noticed in reanalyzing storms like this, in the absence of a strong (often El Nino-induced subtropical jet) to increase available eddy potential energy (& strengthen + tuck in the low even closer to the coast >> allowing warm noses aloft to change snow to rain for those in Piedmont & Coastal Plain), these Nina Miller A storms tend to be historically kinder to folks around RDU & points east in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Western ridge flies up around 200 hours
JLL1973
Member
it doesnt look like a white christmas for anyone across the southeast but man its going to be cold
Way too early to say, see my post above
per some here, this isn’t extreme cold 
Hi
Holy balls 
This friggin GFS run is COLD
This look though
Pipe bursting, nose bleeding, pants splattering COLD! 
Christmas Day. High temperatures. 
We’re really gonna need to watch for any sort of weak wave moving along the Gulf Coast during this timeframe. With that type of airmass moving into place, it wouldn’t take much to produce a light overrunning event with high ratios.
Ron Burgundy
Member
We’re gonna need a new colorThis friggin GFS run is COLD
SASQUATCH
Mobile, AL: Snow Capital of the South
Member
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I honestly believe it ran out of colors.
Definitely looks intriguing. Hate to be that guy who brings up January 88, but I’m old and nostalgic. Is this in any of the analogs? I believe it also had a strong -EPO with cross polar flow, although probably not as much -NAO. It featured a very weak low with mostly baroclinic lift along the arctic front if I remember correctly.This pattern has legit big dog potential around-just after Christmas.
The overall window in/around the Holidays-last week of Dec has certainly felt about right to me from a large-scale perspective & certainly fits in general with the prototypical La Nina winter evolution, as well as the analogs that have been discussed for a few weeks now (e.g. Dec 2010)
Big arctic cold front comes down in the days prior, firmly establishing a nice, deep-layer cold air mass & suppressing the baroclinic zone to the coastal SE & E Coast, where a trailing wave can take advantage + throw moisture back into the cold air. -NAO downstream slows the wave down & encourages it to cyclonically break/amplify underneath >> strengthening any would-be winter storm, while the +PNA helps suppress the storm track down into the southeastern US.
Today's 12z EPS & 12z GEFS means show a classic Miller A/coastal cyclone snowstorm look in the Carolinas, w/ the mean trough anchored in/around the TN Valley, west-based -NAO, & +PNA. Heck, we even have the ridge north of Alaska like the composite does.
Color me impressed.
Another intriguing climatological tendency I've noticed in reanalyzing storms like this, in the absence of a strong (often El Nino-induced subtropical jet) to increase available eddy potential energy (& strengthen + tuck in the low even closer to the coast >> allowing warm noses aloft to change snow to rain for those in Piedmont & Coastal Plain), these Nina Miller A storms tend to be historically kinder to folks around RDU & points east in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC.
Thinking we could see some clipper action with that surge of cold air
January 1988 actually had a +NAO and +AO. Just managed to time up the coldest weather of a mild winter at the right time
bigstick10
Member
Now this is what I am talking about, Thanks
That or just some weak short wave… it wouldn’t take much to produce some overrunning.
EthanLovesWeather
Member
- Joined
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Can you show the PNA graph that looked a lot better from a couple days ago for reference and comparison to this one??
Thank you so much. I appreciate it.
Gulp. Woof. Bark.
Ah the old March 1980 replay
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Who do we have to pay for this to happen?
GEFS says let's do this
Member 10 costs a lot
I’m fairly certain that you and I both would get our sub zero lows after that.
GEFS 18z are very very active. I would not be sleeping on a white Christmas potential. If we can get the proper phasing out of this good things can happen even before the post Christmas potential. The fact that we’re getting some impressive cold laid out more west to east opens up the door to quick hitting snow events as well with energy diving around our stagnant and powerfully blocked PV .. nuclear potential IMO if these trends continue and hold.
Socar2001
Member
Is that freezing rain or heavy snow along the coast?
GEFS trend loop of last 5 runs for Dec 22
I like how we are trending to a stronger NAO block. Honestly, I can't remember a time of model watching where we've thrown this amount of cold air up under a block, so all bets are off in terms what comes down the line (if this look holds on the modeling of course).
I like how we are trending to a stronger NAO block. Honestly, I can't remember a time of model watching where we've thrown this amount of cold air up under a block, so all bets are off in terms what comes down the line (if this look holds on the modeling of course).
NWMSGuy
Member
What has seemed like days and days of rain here in North Ms, this shot was a very welcoming sight for the drive home.
Taken North of Coldwater, MS on I55.
Taken North of Coldwater, MS on I55.
JHS
Member
Probably the same here, for the 1st time since Jan 1985.
Heck of a storm wave signal here on the GEFS right around Christmas with low heights / cold temperatures.
