I like the fact that the ridge north of AK doesn't cut off. Hopefully it doesn't roll over. Anyway, looks good. Should have some energy to work with in the STJ with that look. Hopefully, it can remain suppressed.CMC Ens goes to this
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
Let’s not get too excited. Remember there’s a good reason our snow climo isn’t above but a few inches a year .. cause it’s just damn hard to get snow in the south. There’s always more fail routes then there are success routes. I certainly like where the trends are going though in terms of some sort of winter weather in an area in the south east or mid Atlantic.
Id go as much to say that the south has an even better chance at seeing severe weather before we see a chance at the winter weather stuff. We will see
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Agreed. As Webb noted earlier the pattern we are going into improves our odds, but there’s plenty of times where the perfect pattern doesn’t translate to winter storms
iGRXY
Member
Difference is whether or not the perfect pattern has any type of staying power. As of today and again this is as of today it looks like it does. You keep this pattern for 3-4 weeks and somebody will score. It may not be us in the Carolinas, could very easily be mid south, the deep south and Mississippi valley, heck you get too much blocking and drop too much cold air and the gulf coast or coastal regions of the SE will score. Right now I think the odds are somebody, not everybody, will see some type of winter storm within the next 3-4 weeks. Just not sure on who and we won't know that until there's something to actually track. That's really my point. Not guaranteeing snow for everybody lol.
griteater
Member
12z Euro: 850mb temp anomaly change from previous run for day 8-9
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
12z EURO much better with the cold shot
Met1985
Member
12z Euro looked really good from about hour 168 onwards and you can see at the end of the run much colder air working down from Canada. Again im taking the mid to long range op runs with a grain of salt but the recent ensemble runs support this.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
What do y’all think of this?
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You can clearly see what the GFS and CMC ensembles are seeing in the longer range on the Euro as the big PV gyre heads toward the Aleutians.
That doesn’t look like a west based -NAO, did he have a 500mb map ?What do y’all think of this?
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griteater
Member
Trends today nudged in the direction of less SE ridging, but it's always lurking in La Nina....small differences in the height pattern go a long way and there will be plenty of back and forth moves going forward with the model runs
I would be curious to see how that would look if you throw the very -AO into the mix. A number of those dates were at time when the AO was positive to neutral. Right now the AO is almost to -3 and looks to stay below -1.5 for the foreseeable future. Also one would have to throw the MJO into the mix. It’s going into a mode that favors muted SERWhat do y’all think of this?
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Does the monster low in the Plains early next week, shuffle up the pattern and make it more favorable?? Looks like a storm of that caliber, may have been what the models were missing and or making for the wild run to run swings?
You need a little ridge to take suppression off the table for a good storm in the SE. It’s a razor fine line!