L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I would think suppression. I heard some people talk about this pattern supporting suppression
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
I would think suppression. I heard some people talk about this pattern supporting suppression
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Wave just flattens out. Messy to begin with. Just GFS being the GFS
Hmmmm that looks and sounds like something in the past did a few days before in modeling in a similar pattern.
Baby steps, but we continue to tick better.
It's nice to see at least a storm signal during that time frame. Coupled with the teleconnections I think that's the time to watch. Especially for areas east of the mountains.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I would like to mention how GFS has always had suppression bias, just keep that in mind
Yep. Of course, we would all like to see a monster storm show on the models, but at this range it's all fantasy (in the details). As you said, it's just good to see enough cold air around for some future possibility. So going off that, I like the amount/direction of dry cold air coming out of Canada.
Dew points ~day 10:
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS trending cooler and cooler
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packfan98
Moderator
Good technical read:
Ron Burgundy
Member
Don’t worry - we have Glenn Burns!
griteater
Member
Broad based view of the winter storm potential showing up here from the averaged 12z GFS Ensemble members for Dec 17-19
Pretty much lines up with what I was just looking at on the GEFS temp and precip maps. Looks like the GEFS is picking up on another overrunning type deal around 300hrs. Definitely favors the mid-south.Broad based view of the winter storm potential showing up here from the averaged 12z GFS Ensemble members for Dec 17-19
Sexy 
It keeps going… ,look at that Alaskan ridge ! Holy ---- 
griteater
Member
That’s copy and paste to last January but with a -NAO block… goodnessCMC Ens goes to this
griteater
Member
Days 9-13 on Fro's GEFS run. More Aleutian Low, better tilt of high pressure ridge thru AK, Cross Polar flow, less troughing thru Cali, more TPV in northern Canada
It looks like that vortex in SE Canada was to far south on that run. I’m not too worried, the important thing in that time is the overall pattern and teleconnections supporting something
Playing around with late January 2014 with a -NAO. Goodness indeed.
iGRXY
Member
AT this point I think it's not a matter of if, but when we get a legit winter storm here in the south. Now granted nothing is guaranteed in life, but this basically house money at this point if the progression of the pattern continues like it is doing so far. We would have cold air to the west, confluence/CAD and cold air to the north. wave after wave of energy rolling through, blocking over top to shift the storm track south. I think this time next week (maybe sooner) we will have a storm to track. Now whether that's Ice or snow remains to be seen, but I think the odds are through the roof right now.