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Pattern Dazzling December

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Wave just flattens out. Messy to begin with. Just GFS being the GFS View attachment 125123
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It's nice to see at least a storm signal during that time frame. Coupled with the teleconnections I think that's the time to watch. Especially for areas east of the mountains.
 
SNOWMANN said:
It's nice to see at least a storm signal during that time frame. Coupled with the teleconnections I think that's the time to watch. Especially for areas east of the mountains.
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Yep. Of course, we would all like to see a monster storm show on the models, but at this range it's all fantasy (in the details). As you said, it's just good to see enough cold air around for some future possibility. So going off that, I like the amount/direction of dry cold air coming out of Canada.

Dew points ~day 10:
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Broad based view of the winter storm potential showing up here from the averaged 12z GFS Ensemble members for Dec 17-19

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griteater said:
Broad based view of the winter storm potential showing up here from the averaged 12z GFS Ensemble members for Dec 17-19

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Pretty much lines up with what I was just looking at on the GEFS temp and precip maps. Looks like the GEFS is picking up on another overrunning type deal around 300hrs. Definitely favors the mid-south.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I would think suppression. I heard some people talk about this pattern supporting suppression


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It looks like that vortex in SE Canada was to far south on that run. I’m not too worried, the important thing in that time is the overall pattern and teleconnections supporting something
 
AT this point I think it's not a matter of if, but when we get a legit winter storm here in the south. Now granted nothing is guaranteed in life, but this basically house money at this point if the progression of the pattern continues like it is doing so far. We would have cold air to the west, confluence/CAD and cold air to the north. wave after wave of energy rolling through, blocking over top to shift the storm track south. I think this time next week (maybe sooner) we will have a storm to track. Now whether that's Ice or snow remains to be seen, but I think the odds are through the roof right now.
 
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