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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Unless that western ridge keeps sliding east. Then it will go negative out to sea and we can all enjoy watching a fish storm turn to a Boston banger. ? womp
Looks like models are converging honestly, GEFS took a step to the CMC/CMCE/EPS while the CMCE/CMC and last nights EPS took a step to the GEFS 
Still lots of discrepancies on the GEFS members on how December 20-22 plays out .. this is the time period where things get funky in the model .. going to be some good members
NCSNOW
Member
Yesterdays High: 43
Todays : 41 as light rain, starts currently 41 and DP 34; should knock back into the 30s
Pattern change is here
Todays : 41 as light rain, starts currently 41 and DP 34; should knock back into the 30s
Pattern change is here
iGRXY
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Well, here's where the GFS ends up by hr 384. This makes me hopeful that we can get a reload and more winter weather threats on the table before the end of the year.
GEFS has the angle of cold looking much better as well, Vs dipping it in texas, it’s more west to east
ATLwxfan
Member
Nice combo of suppression and back end moisture to frustrate the weenies. It’ll be cold though!
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
No such thing. We always need the cold air FIRST and I'll take it every time. Mother Nature is not giving us a "cold now or cold later" trade off.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Starting to look drier and drier but we have time to trend it back or angle it enough to pull some sort of system. It'll either be bitter and mostly dry or we'll be able to pull something. Been noticing overall runs drying up as well.
GEFS days 7-10. Cold moving east up under an improving looking west-based block. We're trying to get where we need to go
Oconeexman
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When's the last time we had that good of a west based -nao that strong?GEFS days 7-10. Cold moving east up under an improving looking west-based block. We're trying to get where we need to go
I love where we are at right now. People don’t realize how much just a few minor tweaks can open the door to a big time winter system in this type of pattern and we have 240 hours to tweak it in our favor. Regardless of the winter weather the cold is coming.GEFS days 7-10. Cold moving east up under an improving looking west-based block. We're trying to get where we need to go
This one has been waffling back and forth so far this month, but the potential is there for it to setup nicely
Previous good ones in the recent past:
March 2018: VA got hit good with multiple storms, but the Pac pattern was poor for us south of there
Jan 2016: there was a good one right before the big Mid-Atlantic blizzard
Dec-Jan 2010/2011: really good ones that reloaded
I’ve got an old Facebook post from this day in 2010 and apparently it was 4 degrees at sugar mountain at the time. Map checks out ? 
The looks coming up is almost a blockier version of jan-Feb 2014, but the cutoff subtropical strength ridge over the Arctic is what separates this one coming 
Oconeexman
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Rex block with a 50/50..thats the best we could ask for honestly
CMC Ens 5-day mean for Dec 22-27. Run 2 days ago vs. today's run
That looks really good. I might be wrong on this, but for SE snowstorms, I seem to remember an old post that Allan made one time that showed that it is ideal to have the negative anomaly center over TN. Regardless, the image above looks quite chilly!
iGRXY
Member
Brutal. It's nice to see better placement and deeper cold as we work in. Still have to get down the home stretch, but we are usually trending in the opposite direction.CMC Ens 5-day mean for Dec 22-27. Run 2 days ago vs. today's run
As an aside, I know it's not possible, but I wish all of these vendors who like to use the same color scale would also use the same numerical scale. Like, green for provider A is -.001F and green on provider B is -538 C.
12z euro has a little slug of precipitation with the Saturday system. 850’s at the time suggest it would be a close call on precip type if anything can fall 
iGRXY
Member
Mhmmm
Euro is getting closer and closer to interacting the TPV-pac trough the right way, when that happens a piece of the TPV is sent towards us, a western ridge pops, and the other part gets sucked in the pacific trough, which feeds it, love to see that euro trend.
iGRXY
Member
Just a beautiful block over Alaska and the -NAO is almost textbook.
accu35
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I wouldn’t be surprised if there would be a little sleet mixed in if precipitation were heavier
iGRXY
Member
Watching to see if we can dig the TPV and get something going here. Heights are lower further southwest so lets see where it goes..
Let’s ------- go guys. Western ridge going up each run, bye bye western dump 
---- the western trough, get that ---- outa here ! 
iGRXY
Member
Nothing like a good ole death star sitting right above you
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Slight changes this run
Causal 495 TPV over NY 
This looks like it will allow shortwave amplitude into the southeast via the gulf w/o just jutting up the coast?
Nothing like a good ole death star sitting right above you
Can’t draw it up better than this. Beautiful position of the +PNA blowing up out west.. piece of additional energy following behind our arctic airmass dump and TPV.. oh and there’s nowhere for these pieces to go under that western based -NAO … yeah that could work.
Neat bonus feature: a ridiculously anomalous -EPO
Neat bonus feature: a ridiculously anomalous -EPO