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Pattern Dazzling December

SnowNiner said:
Catching up on the runs today, really nice to see the ridging retrograde west more and hook up with the Alaskan ridge. I agree, the missing element seems to still be too much dominance by the western trough. The cold spills east, but it's not "releasing the hounds". What do we need to look for, what changes do we need to have for the Atlantic trough to become the dominate one?
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Some thoughts here for what we might need to see to get the Atlantic side sector more dominant: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/dazzling-december.1145/page-50#post-602726

Standard -EPO favors max cold to our west, but not all AK ridging is the same of course. It depends on the specific details for how all the waves break and the ridge / trough orientation etc. No way to dissect that now. Having a good -NAO to go with AK ridging should do the trick though
 
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Next Friday into Saturday the flakes will be flying and sticking in the Mtns, especially western facing slopes. GFS is out in left field still. But Euro ens & ops, as well as the Canadian ens and Ops are being consistent with striping down a few inches. I see a way it could end up a little more or decrease. So if you want to same day trip in order to walk on some white Ground to get in the Christmas spirit without having to book a flight out to the Rockies, heres your shot.
 
NCSNOW said:
Next Friday into Saturday the flakes will be flying and sticking in the Mtns, especially western facing slopes. GFS is out in left field still. But Euro ens & ops, as well as the Canadian ens and Ops are being consistent with striping down a few inches. I see a way it could end up a little more or decrease. So if you want to same day trip in order to walk on some white Ground to get in the Christmas spirit without having to book a flight out to the Rockies, heres your shot.
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I sure do hope so. I hit 61° yesterday at the house I'm building in Boone. It sits at 4200ft. Only got a dusting so far this year. Hopefully we can get some consistency in the models in the next few runs.
 
The best maps to show are still out at 240, though the changes to this are underway before then. The Euro has the best look with blocking persisting in the east and pretty good ridging out west. And it has that ULL off the west coast that is somewhat disconnected, keeping heights from being too low in the SW. Nice connection to the Arctic here.

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The CMC is pretty good too. Ridging out west is a little more diffuse and the ULL off the west coast is rather sloppy.

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The GFS at 0z is pretty awful. Instead of a ULL out west, you have a nice trough running back west. Without a stout west -NAO, which we don't have, it won't be easy to get all that cold here on a sustained basis.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_41.png

The 6z GFS is better. But again, there is a full trough extending off the west coast, keeping heights low out there. I don't care for that.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_40.png

In any event, lots of options still on the table. But I like that the Euro and CMC have been somewhat consistent getting legit cold here at some point.
 
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Folks if you think about it, we are really right on track. I know there was a time where most of us sort rushed this change by 4-5 days, but we have now got the cooldown consistently under day 10 now, which is the mid month timeframe we always talked on. Now we wait to see what it means for late December. But i really think somewhere in the Southern plains, Mississippi valley area up through the Ohio valley really score first.
 
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