Pattern Dazzling December

[MichaelJ]

With such a strong -NAO and a block developing, it is only a matter of time before the cold hits here in the SE. This pattern is really reminiscent of 1989 where we had a very cold and icy December. Problem is what happened after Jan 1 of 1990 after that cold December. Moral of the story is hopefully we get some winter precip in December lest Jan-Mar turns out very mild like it did that winter

 

[Usmeagle2005]

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TorchView attachment 125075

This has a December 1989 feel to it, literally the exact timeframe.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I wouldn’t worry about that to much atm, thats a look that would sneak cold down, but we’re probably gonna see a -EPO event in a couple weeks when tropical forcing returns back in that favor (WPAC). having that TPV on our side is gonna be our supply for the time being. Only thing I would worry about is before the -EPO event we end up getting a +EPO like what yesterdays CMCE/GFS runs showed, do not want to do that otherwise we block pacific air like 2021

Im starting to like long range forecasting

 

[Chazwin]

With such a strong -NAO and a block developing, it is only a matter of time before the cold hits here in the SE. This pattern is really reminiscent of 1989 where we had a very cold and icy December. Problem is what happened after Jan 1 of 1990 after that cold December. Moral of the story is hopefully we get some winter precip in December lest Jan-Mar turns out very mild like it did that winter

There’s some similarities between what’s showing for 10 days out or so to what how December ‘89 started out. The first winter storm for the Carolinas that year came in on December 8-9 ( something about those dates) and it was big ice/sleet storm for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate that finished as snow and a big snowstorm for the mountains then up into VA and the Mid-Atlantic. The NC/SC Shrine Bowl Game was played in CLT that year at old Memorial Stadium in snow and sleet.

 

[SD]

Good to see the eps spread tighten up in the extended. I like the gfs progression on how it gets there and it's similar to the euro but I'd like the see the faster Canadian verify

 

[AJ1013]

Summerhaven, a mountain town about an hours drive from Tucson, at 8,000ft, is now forecast to get 12-24” of snow with the winter storm moving in next Monday. Definitely will be driving out that way. Euro has a few flakes in Tucson (2,500ft) after a bunch of cold rain. GFS says no snow in Tucson, lowest snow level around 4,000ft

 

[Mitch West]

It's all beginning to connect folks.

 

[AJ1013]

I haven't seen snow since March 29th. Too long. Here's a photo from that day in Summerhaven, AZ. Was extra cool since it was a thundersnow event.

 

[Arcc]

We were due a stupid weenie run from the GFS and there it is.

 

[Chazwin]

We were due a stupid weenie run from the GFS and there it is.

View attachment 125078

That how you get pipe busting cold in the southeast

 

[BullCityWx]

There’s some similarities between what’s showing for 10 days out or so to what how December ‘89 started out. The first winter storm for the Carolinas that year came in on December 8-9 ( something about those dates) and it was big ice/sleet storm for the NC Piedmont and SC Upstate that finished as snow and a big snowstorm for the mountains then up into VA and the Mid-Atlantic. The NC/SC Shrine Bowl Game was played in CLT that year at old Memorial Stadium in snow and sleet.

Wow, I somehow didn’t know that about the 89 shrine bowl.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Lmk what y’all think of my write up on Twitter about the upcoming pattern. Trying to make things as easily understandable for the general public who doesn’t have a ton of meteorology knowledge

 

[SnowNiner]

Yeah agree, the Cali wave should kick on out, and once it setups up shop over the NE and off the NE coast, that would be the time for a potential winter storm chance. I think the bigger question is what happens down the line. I would like to see the Atlantic side anomaly centers be more dominant (like CMC Ens - 1st image) instead of the Pacific side anomaly centers being dominant (like EPS - 2nd image.....GEFS is like this as well). But at any rate, first step is to get the initial cool/cold plunge in here

Catching up on the runs today, really nice to see the ridging retrograde west more and hook up with the Alaskan ridge. I agree, the missing element seems to still be too much dominance by the western trough. The cold spills east, but it's not "releasing the hounds". What do we need to look for, what changes do we need to have for the Atlantic trough to become the dominate one?

 

[Chazwin]

Wow, I somehow didn’t know that about the 89 shrine bowl.

That was my freshman year of high school and got to work the chain gang for it. It was awesome

 

[Itryatgolf]

I mentioned this yesterday, and if the wpo and epo turn negative, it's GOING to get cold somewhere. Hopefully with a nice southern slider would be ok with me??

 

[Itryatgolf]

I don't blame people who are apprehensive because the models have been less than stellar, but we want a pacific that favors cold weather for us. No sugar coating that one.

 

[Brent]

This gives me February 2021 flashbacks

 

[Snowman63]

This gives me February 2021 flashbacks View attachment 125088

Yep, Memphis set a record (10 days) for the number of consecutive days not getting above freezing.

 

[griteater]

grit, Don't these things (SSW) take a couple weeks to have an effect for us locally in the SE?

The traditional top-down SSW does take time from Strat PV weakening > SSW > Upper Strat warming downwelling into the troposphere. The ideal case would be where we have ongoing tropospheric blocking (like we do now) such that if we do get a SSW, the downwelling process wouldn't be necessary. Bottom line is that it's difficult (thought not impossible) to get an extended period of quality -AO/-NAO blocking without a weak strat PV and/or SSW

 

[Itryatgolf]

The traditional top-down SSW does take time from Strat PV weakening > SSW > Upper Strat warming downwelling into the troposphere. The ideal case would be where we have ongoing tropospheric blocking (like we do now) such that if we do get a SSW, the downwelling process wouldn't be necessary. Bottom line is that it's difficult (thought not impossible) to get an extended period of quality -AO/-NAO blocking without a weak strat PV and/or SSW

I would take an extended -ao/nao if we cant realize a SSW. Dr. Simon Lee isn't sold on a SSW as of yet.