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Pattern Dazzling December

Myfrotho704_ said:
This gefs run is way colder and moves the cold in way quicker then any other run. thanks to a way more +PNA. these means gonna be insane and temp spreads about to be below 0 in some spots View attachment 126182View attachment 126183
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Yep and if you’re lucky to get snow that’s going to support single to below zero temps with this type of arctic blast.. crazy we’re talking about this in late December .. usually we’re still sun bathing right now
 
NICE GEFS signal around the 23rd.. very nice
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gfs-ens_mslpa_us_37.png
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Myfrotho704_ said:
thing you like to see . This View attachment 126180
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Day 8-10, close but maxes needs to be adjusted east, eastern WA/western MT. -dPVA should come in just south for the money shot looking west. Not going to work, IMO, especially the way the isohypses hook back west above 55N.
 
We have gotten a few runs with some decent looks and potential storms, but definitely no slam dunk, can't miss systems. However, the bigger question is how the pattern sets up after the initial cold blast around 23rd. Looks like the eastern trough will continue to push east and we will need another pattern reload/reset. The runs today have seemed to speed up the trough progression which may limit our initial chances at a winter system. There are some good signs with the Pac jet and Aleutian Low with favorable teleconnections too.

No matter what the models show or what we want to happen, the weather is going to do what it's going to do. We are just making a hobby out of it. Have fun with it!
 
ILMRoss said:
really don't like how large of a jolt that was, ensembles are aircraft carriers, takes a lot to jolt them like that. family of euro runs has left me much more pessimistic this afternoon
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in retrospect i think this take was a bit knee jerky, but euro family still left an alkaline taste in my mouth. How I see the field:

- the s/w's in the 4-7 day period can still trend towards more consolidation/ampiness, i'm interested, but time is ticking.

- the cold dump coming in 10 days out, and the vortex tied with it, are preposterous. someone will get a wicked storm, depending on the tilt. where does that vortex go? as euro demonstrates, still a lot of places on the table. i think the euro op from this afternoon would generally just delay the cold a few days, but tbh who wants their package to be delayed a few days?

- period after the vortex dump is super intriguing. i try soooo hard to not make dec 1989 references... i think it is wilmington weenie behavior. but the setup, some mega-high getting set in the plains with a big trough in the vicinity, is close.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Most of this will fall on the lighter side of the totals I put up, but here’s my thoughts View attachment 126194
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A+ I really like Escarpment area looks professional. It was freezing fog/drizzle all day in Blowing Rock. I'll have obs in the morning I think for areas in NC tomorrow morning is how quick the precip moves in and Wednesday night on cad.
 
bouncycorn said:
That one has potential.. biggest question will be whether or not we can manage to get cold enough air for winter weather, either at the surface in the form of ZR or otherwise in the form of SN.. the upper air setup almost looks like a classic ZR storm across the southeast.
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This is what I was saying earlier about seeing ice as a big threat for someone on these runs.
 
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