Pattern Dazzling December

[Myfrotho704_]

that’s your classic overrunning look across the SE with a TPV In SE Canada and energy out west turning 500mb flow WSWly and cold air at the sfc, a pretty icy look, lots of noise from the EPS around this time as well with small snow means but decent amount of members with wintry precip

 

[griteater]

Question for you grit.. are you concerned that it’s possible that big trough gets delayed some and that low off the California coast could pull it back and suddenly reinforce a -PNA regime? Or is that blocking over top helping to progress the flow to where low pressure will dominate underneath all across the US ?

Not grit, but IMO with that strong jet behind it there's no way it's going to get hung in the southwest. What's even better is directly behind this a split flow is setting up - with a west-based -NAO out in front of it....if we can just reel this setup in it's going to get interesting before long.

Yeah agree, the Cali wave should kick on out, and once it setups up shop over the NE and off the NE coast, that would be the time for a potential winter storm chance. I think the bigger question is what happens down the line. I would like to see the Atlantic side anomaly centers be more dominant (like CMC Ens - 1st image) instead of the Pacific side anomaly centers being dominant (like EPS - 2nd image.....GEFS is like this as well). But at any rate, first step is to get the initial cool/cold plunge in here

 

[ATLwxfan]

For NGA 12z GFS gets into upper 30’s for lows but nothing too exciting. A couple days with mid 40’s high temps. The ridge really wants to fight off any significant intrusion of cold.

I mean it could be worse though.

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[Myfrotho704_]

For NGA 12z GFS gets into upper 30’s for lows but nothing too exciting. A couple days with mid 40’s high temps. The ridge really wants to fight off any significant intrusion of cold.

I mean it could be worse though.

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Question is why are you using the long range GFS as a base for temps when ensembles are in use for that to account for spreads

 

[Myfrotho704_]

it’s the fact this is trending better under day 10. let me say this the least weeniest way… we’re gonna pop a winter storm soon if we hold this look, trending to a low bombing out around Atlantic Canada = confluence. and the western energy keeping energy rollin in that suppressed height field.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

it’s the fact this is trending better under day 10. let me say this the least weeniest way… we’re gonna pop a winter storm soon if we hold this look, trending to a low bombing out around Atlantic Canada = confluence. and the western energy keeping energy rollin in that suppressed height field. View attachment 125065

Not only a pattern that can produce snow but ice is very much in play as well with something like this. Plenty of low level cold available here.

 

[griteater]

Ed doesn't post much, but he is one of the best out there with Strat discussion. No hype / high knowledge

Ed with another post today on the stratosphere. Again, this is a no hype / high knowledge guy with respect to stratosphere discussion. A SSW would likely open the door for an extended blocking regime if one were to occur

 

[FallsLake]

18z GFS looks to show a better push of cold air out of Canada:
~day 7 (nice 1062 high-----Last run had it at 1046):

 

[griteater]

GFS is spitting out some massive -EPO ridging on some of these runs

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC looked good and was setting up to drop the hammer out of the Arctic

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

You love to see that jet stream buckle. That’s where the magic happens ?? ?

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It’s a shame there’s no cold air around in this pattern

 

[ATLwxfan]

Question is why are you using the long range GFS as a base for temps when ensembles are in use for that to account for spreads

Fair question. GEFS was better but keeps the core of the cold to the northwest. Seasonable and reasonable.


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[Ollie Williams]

Incoming on the GFS

 

[Ron Burgundy]

View attachment 125071
It’s a shame there’s no cold air around in this pattern

Lmao @ the ATL heat island

 

[CaryWx]

Ed with another post today on the stratosphere. Again, this is a no hype / high knowledge guy with respect to stratosphere discussion. A SSW would likely open the door for an extended blocking regime if one were to occur

grit, Don't these things (SSW) take a couple weeks to have an effect for us locally in the SE?

 

[Mitch West]

sheesh

 

[FallsLake]

Lets hope whatever storm we get in the future is not this:
freezing rain totals on the 18z GFS ~day 15:

 

[Chazwin]

Lets hope whatever storm we get in the future is not this:
freezing rain totals on the 18z GFS ~day 15:
View attachment 125074

Obviously that’s way too far out there to worry about specifics, but that’s the timeframe that I’ve had my eye on. Also hate to say but the NC Piedmont and SC upstate are definitely due for one of these

 

[Broken024]

Torch