whatalife
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
I have cousins who grew up in Panama City. They had 3” during the March 1993… completely shut the city down
iGRXY
Member
When Canada is warm, we are cold. The coldest anomalies in the world are flooding the US. This is an extremely exciting pattern that I think we could score not only once, but have multiple chances. Energy is flooding the US as well so our chances are really exciting going forward.
Yeah I really like the look got plenty of stout HP swinging down from NW Canada with plenty energy in the SW. Wouldn't take much to give a lot in the south a White Christmas possibly.
I really like that 18-23rd timeframe. The teleconnections suggest the possibility of something there. MJO is moving through very low amp phase 1-2, Relaxed -NAO, neutral PNA.
When Canada is warm, we are cold. The coldest anomalies in the world are flooding the US. This is an extremely exciting pattern that I think we could score not only once, but have multiple chances. Energy is flooding the US as well so our chances are really exciting going forward.
Canadian Ensemble go full on weenie pattern past 300hrs.
I think the models will start showing some storms during that time period this week. The latest GFS run looked better in the long range. Lots of potential just need some adjustments.
griteater
Member
If oscillation indexes are your thang (* raises hand), here are the NAO and EPO from 12z GFS (not posting the PNA lol)
I just noticed looking at my local point forecast that what was supposed to be a complete blow torch for the next 4 or 5 days is now just limited to today and tomorrow and it looks like the warmest we mid 60s vs the mid 70s that was showing earlier. After that CAD takes over…like Webb said, certainly should be expected with the -NAO
Finally working the beginning stages (cold air) of this pattern change inside day 10
The GFS op would feature above normal to near normal temps for the SE, with slightly below way out at range. Best we would do would probably be a chilly rain or two. Its consistency, however, is garbage.
Verbatim, the Canadian probably features suppression at 240, but I like how it evolves the pattern. It's how you get cold in the east. Is it right? Who knows, but it's been more consistent of late than the GFS and more closely resembles the Euro. Both models have a ULL off the NW US coast, which is good.
I typically am reluctant to dismiss model runs i don't like and hug model runs I do like. But I am just not a believer in the upgraded GFS out at range right now. Given the uncertainty there and the fact that the Euro and CMC kind of agree and have maybe been more consistent, I would lean in their direction.
Verbatim, the Canadian probably features suppression at 240, but I like how it evolves the pattern. It's how you get cold in the east. Is it right? Who knows, but it's been more consistent of late than the GFS and more closely resembles the Euro. Both models have a ULL off the NW US coast, which is good.
I typically am reluctant to dismiss model runs i don't like and hug model runs I do like. But I am just not a believer in the upgraded GFS out at range right now. Given the uncertainty there and the fact that the Euro and CMC kind of agree and have maybe been more consistent, I would lean in their direction.
griteater
Member
Northern Annular Mode is essentially the AO, but through both the troposphere and stratosphere. Here it is showing negative values thru both layers. This chart is from the 00z run of the GFS, but looking at the 12z run maps, I suspect we would see a similar look as this one....i.e. both the troposphere and stratosphere are showing weakness with the AO which is good to see...and hope it continues
For reference, the stratosphere is Pressure levels from 1 to ~150 hPa (mb)...troposphere is from ~150 hPa to 1000 hPa
For reference, the stratosphere is Pressure levels from 1 to ~150 hPa (mb)...troposphere is from ~150 hPa to 1000 hPa
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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Not sure if anyone else agrees but for the last week or so the op CMC has been the most consistent model. It doesn’t have massive changes from run to run like op gfs has been having.
iGRXY
Member
The OP GFS doesn't even agree with its own Ensembles which has also been extremely inconsistent, but looks much closer to the Canadian and EURO and their ensembles.
People forget that you've got to look at your ensembles to see if it supports the OP.
Hypsometric
Member
GFS/GEFS have definitely been trending towards a more disrupted strat PV. Could portend an extended blocky period and hopefully additional reinforcements come in the way of the MJO also.Northern Annular Mode is essentially the AO, but through both the troposphere and stratosphere. Here it is showing negative values thru both layers. This chart is from the 00z run of the GFS, but looking at the 12z run maps, I suspect we would see a similar look as this one....i.e. both the troposphere and stratosphere are showing weakness with the AO which is good to see...and hope it continues
For reference, the stratosphere is Pressure levels from 1 to ~150 hPa (mb)...troposphere is from ~150 hPa to 1000 hPa
With the potential coming up, it makes me really not like living on the beach in SE NC
SE ridge still on ?
Eh I wouldn’t say that. Depends on what you are looking at and when. If its the Mean in the short range <120 hrs yes, if >240 that is a good way to get really disappointed if you buy in completely to the Ensembles and discount the OP.
griteater
Member
Nice trend loop. Others may have commented on this, but we are actually getting a tiny piece of the original TPV over Canada sucked in underneath the initial block. The ICON seems to have the best looking evolution in terms of what happens next
On the 1st image, you can see the tear drop here just east of Hudson Bay at day 3...that's the small piece of the Canada TPV. The small wave over Nebraska will combine with it (and the remnant low off NEngland), as seen on the 2nd image at day 5. Then on the 3rd image at day 7, the low is wound up in the Canadian Maritimes....but what the ICON does the best compared to the other models is it brings a piece of the western wave out quicker, and that would eventually start the domino effect where the flow gets backed up severely, cold air sinks south, and we get the very nice looking west based -NAO block from S Greenland to Hudson Bay as low pressure then winds up over New England and off the coast. CMC isn't far off from this, but it keeps the Pac wave more consolidated and doesn't send it east as early.
