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Pattern Dazzling December

Chazwin said:
The other thing that I’ll point is that often when the cold air dives down hard like January 1994 for example, anything trying to come out of the southern stream get squashed to the southern Gulf or sheared out completely. Honestly,the January 1988 storm is a great example of how you want a cold airmass to come in.
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Yes sir you are exactly right. To me personally give me temps from 20 to 30 degrees with plenty of moisture. Anything colder and it's hard to get a system through that strong of a high pressure.
 
griteater said:
I would guess that @Jimmy Hypocracy likes this....stealing the PV and cold air from Asia, cross polar style

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Somebody said it well the other day, the coldest air on the planet is always on the other side of the planet99% of the time, every winter! I’ve NEVER seen it on our side! This is gonna be fun ride!
 
Robert West said:
I don't honestly think anything is going to work in the Southeast during that 20th-21st timeframe. Just seems like a transition period time to me between the last airmass & the big one dropping down.
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Hate to be that guy but I remember the time period from the 18th to the 23rd to be cold and stormy. Now all of the sudden we just saying cold and dry.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Hate to be that guy but I remember the time period from the 18th to the 23rd to be cold and stormy. Now all of the sudden we just saying cold and dry.
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Well there was always the risk of a ridge flex in that timeframe, it really started showing up a few days ago. I think at first we sorta thought the pattern change would move in & stay in up to Christmas. But i think we cool down this weekend, then briefly warm back up then the jury is still out on the true Arctic air a day or so before Christmas. But who knows.
 
I think the 12z EPS run is really going to be telling. If it sticks to its guns or trends better like the GEFS that would be encouraging, if it starts to tilt towards the ops and the GEPS that would be pretty concerning. The critical period is not way out in la la land, it's actually between D4-D7.

Folks can talk about delaying it all they want, but how many pattern changes have been delayed then denied, not delayed not denied? There will always be more wrinkles to add the farther out in time this goes, and dropping the tpv in the PNW is not something I'd like to have to iron out later.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I’m fairly certain the euro has some bias towards holding energy back .. I don’t think it’s going to completely dump out there like the euro shows. Ensembles ensembles ensembles ..
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The bias to hold energy back is something that the Euro has always had. Even here it doesn’t make sense to dump everything in the west… the Pacific trough is still there and strong and should keep the energy from diving down hard like that.
 
Still with the euro we end here.. blocking strong -AO/-EPO .. we’re going to get cold I’m not worried about a delayed and denied .. if you’re expecting snow in the south then maybe you’re denied but when you live down here you can never expect snow no matter how good bad or ugly the pattern is .. cold though is coming IMO 2DDE7AB3-C9FE-4286-B1F2-7ED6ACEFE3B1.jpeg
 
EPS is nowhere near as bad as the euro, but so far is a little worse, cold footprint remains similar however. There’s something interesting tho, the euro-EPS have a stronger -NAO block, is it possible that it’s hurting the eastward movement of the TPV, because it’s retrograding west while the TPV is trying to move east, if I can recall, webb and others mentioned how that played a hurtful role in February 2021c because the block actually contributed to slowing the trough down and hurting the eastward propagation in Feb 2021B7FFD910-5903-44CB-AA9B-AC7D21668D1F.pngEBB3244A-75E6-4820-9E7C-89E48F345F2C.png
 
That’s the thing with operationals they do the best they can but they are only 1 singular solution based off of one set of current conditions. Ensembles take many slight variations in initial conditions and see how everything plays out then. While they sr whither resolution they are still just like if you would pick one of the ensemble members and decide to show that as the solution.
 
NCSNOW said:
Todays high is gonna top out at 43
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Yes… I’m gonna top out about 48 which is several degrees lower than forecast. My average is still 55 and will drop to 54 next week…I mentioned that because only one day of the next ten is forecasted to be at or above average and that is Thursday, but I have a feeling that wedge is gonna be stubborn. Friday is forecasted to be 54 and then after that I’m in the 40s everyday. I don’t where some folks are saying the pattern change is delayed because it’s here… it’s just taking different stages like the EPS has been showing for a couple weeks
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS is nowhere near as bad as the euro, but so far is a little worse, cold footprint remains similar however. There’s something interesting tho, the euro-EPS have a stronger -NAO block, is it possible that it’s hurting the eastward movement of the TPV, because it’s retrograding west while the TPV is trying to move east, if I can recall, webb and others mentioned how that played a hurtful role in February 2021c because the block actually contributed to slowing the trough down and hurting the eastward propagation in Feb 2021View attachment 126100View attachment 126101
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That would make sense because obviously the NAO block does slow the flow down some. However we still see a strong Aleutian low and Pacific trough that does continue to push everything east… something we didn’t have in February 2021. Maybe this delays the coldest air by 24-48 hours, but it should also allow it to become better entrenched once in place
 
Chazwin said:
That would make sense because obviously the NAO block does slow the flow down some. However we still see a strong Aleutian low and Pacific trough that does continue to push everything east… something we didn’t have in February 2021. Maybe this delays the coldest air by 24-48 hours, but it should also allow it to become better entrenched once in place
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If anything this would help slide the TPV further southeast because it's being pinched from the north and west
 
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