LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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You know what they say, gotta hear the branches cracking to get the goods.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
The cyclone next week screams "big deal" for basically the western 2/3s of the country, how it evolves probably hides the skeleton key of how favorable the holidays will be for the SE/MA.
Love Robert, was blessed to catch the tail end of his posting history on American. Appreciate his insight. However I think he can be a little too hype-y lately, feel like I've read a lot of "thing are about to get very interesting wink wink nudge nudge" type posts from him with patterns that end up disappointing. Not a knock on his expertise, rather just a disclaimer on this type of post.WxSouth
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The weather is warm across the South today and next few days, from Texas across the heart of the south to the eastern Carolinas, but cold air damming in Virginia, western Carolinas continues to thwart the warm...but even there it will warm up next couple of days. Clouds and periods of rain dominate though, many more systems are slated over the next week.
So, the weather now is gloomy, rather boring across a big chunk of the region. Normal December weather, except this long cloudy stretch is a bit much to take
What is showing up though is, atleast in my estimation, going to be spectacular. All the signals continue to be there for a cascade of sequential Meteorological events that will thrust the central and eastern US into hard core Winter Weather over the next few weeks. A blocking ridge will build toward Alaska (this got us cold several times in October and November). A strong block around Greenland is developing as we speak and will maintain for several weeks--another cold signal for the Southeast. It's rare to get both simultaneously. I believe things are going to get very interesting down South in the next few weeks.
WxSouth
Consulting agency
I don't think your second sentence is necessarily wrong, I'll maintain that the main benefit of -NAOs, to me, is how it slows things down, mucks things up, and creates storm tracks that are more apt to take advantage of any cold air.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I know some folks have been losing their minds over this, but this is not exactly a super warm looking pattern next week, w/ the mean 500mb ridge near Baffin Bay. You always run the risk of getting cold air damming when your ridge is that far north & there's a trough axis over the south-central Plains.
I guess some people may have to find out/be reminded the hard way that -NAO/-PNA is usually riddled w/ CAD, ready to sneak up on you inside the medium range and spoil big warm-ups east of the Apps.
I guess some people may have to find out/be reminded the hard way that -NAO/-PNA is usually riddled w/ CAD, ready to sneak up on you inside the medium range and spoil big warm-ups east of the Apps.
SnowNiner
Member
It got cold last January, and it worked well to get us several threats. But that pattern in January was ridiculously progressive. So many vorts would come down the pipe along the rockies and just flatten, could not deepen and most of the threats in MBY were wiffs. That's the problem with PNA only patterns..... and it shows it's much more nuanced then just having one teleconnection on our side.
But I tend to agree in principle that the last 2 years, -NAOs have not done us any favors in regard to getting us cold. Sadly in the SE, we really need a blend of both the pacific and the atlantic co-operating IMO.
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Then there's Larry the cable guy!
A turn toward a colder, snowier forecast for the lower 48 states.
You could tell if you read my remarks yesterday (about the general delay in a pattern change) that I was more than a little concerned by the lack of numerical model response to the return of Arctic air into the USA. Well, lo and behold, the 0z and 6z forecast series mostly made me smile. Of course, the GFS guidance continues to live in its own chaotic, overkill warmth world. But looked at collectively, the presence of high-latitude blocking signals and an active southern branch storm track is quite apparent in much of the nation.
It is easy to see the architect for the shift to a more definitive winter weather pattern. A storm complex in between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands will pump up ridging into Alaska and western Canada, while at the same time eject energy into California by Sunday. The resultant low pressure will be immense, intense, and proceed to buckle the jet stream in North America by the time it reaches the Quebec Eastern Townships around December 17. besides setting up severe weather threats in Dixie and the Ohio valley, the broad, cold cyclone will bring the snow line further south.
When all is said and done, we have that high-latitude compound blocking ridge scenario (Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland) and active southern branch storm track (Baja California, Texas, along or off of East Coast) working in combination to give locations to the right of the Continental Divide a shot at significant cold, ice and/or snow. Using the analogs to this pattern suggests an abrupt January 9 - 21 Thaw below the Canadian border, then a return to winter mayhem in the U.S. in the last third of next month.
+6
45You and 44 others
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Larry Cosgrove
toroSsepdn58uf50c3i5a1ict46u6llh1f1t8im01aug93tc706m83109hil ·A turn toward a colder, snowier forecast for the lower 48 states.
You could tell if you read my remarks yesterday (about the general delay in a pattern change) that I was more than a little concerned by the lack of numerical model response to the return of Arctic air into the USA. Well, lo and behold, the 0z and 6z forecast series mostly made me smile. Of course, the GFS guidance continues to live in its own chaotic, overkill warmth world. But looked at collectively, the presence of high-latitude blocking signals and an active southern branch storm track is quite apparent in much of the nation.
It is easy to see the architect for the shift to a more definitive winter weather pattern. A storm complex in between Hawaii and the Aleutian Islands will pump up ridging into Alaska and western Canada, while at the same time eject energy into California by Sunday. The resultant low pressure will be immense, intense, and proceed to buckle the jet stream in North America by the time it reaches the Quebec Eastern Townships around December 17. besides setting up severe weather threats in Dixie and the Ohio valley, the broad, cold cyclone will bring the snow line further south.
When all is said and done, we have that high-latitude compound blocking ridge scenario (Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland) and active southern branch storm track (Baja California, Texas, along or off of East Coast) working in combination to give locations to the right of the Continental Divide a shot at significant cold, ice and/or snow. Using the analogs to this pattern suggests an abrupt January 9 - 21 Thaw below the Canadian border, then a return to winter mayhem in the U.S. in the last third of next month.
+6
45You and 44 others
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Nah that ridiculously annoying Aluetian ridge that's been a thorn in our side for years popped a -PNA.
TPV has snuck it’s way back under the block 
In this house, we dont take the GFS seriously:
Hypsometric
Member
?
This tall pacific ridge is entering day 5-6… 
SASQUATCH
2-Time Defending SouthernWX Fantasy Football Champ
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All this needs is an appendectomy.
The changes are comical (check out NE) so significant and big for cold WEDGES 
AJ1013
Member
12z is quite sexy. Big snowstorm for Arizona. Almost cold enough for snow in Tucson.
Hypsometric
Member
Here comes the pinwheel with tons of Arctic air and possibly a storm along the front later in the run. Let's see where it goes.
packfan98
Moderator
So different than last year where we had such a progressive pattern. The blocking pattern really pushes around key features and the physics in the models depicts various different scenarios from run-to-run. No matter how it turns out, the potential is there for a major, slow moving storm. Fun times.
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Is it just me or this isn’t a very good look?? -PNA is quite present in this run .
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iGRXY
Member
The ole 1045-1050 Highs sliding down into the US.
Broken024
Member
Hypsometric
Member
Looks like we start dropping energy in the southwest way out in la la land. Looks to me like a potential for a long duration overrunning event or a phasing situation depending on which way things went.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
This is really a good snapshot of what has been the prevailing pattern the past 20 years; with 2009-10 being a notable exception.
The pacific has really been in control with primarily a trough in the west (-PNA) over that time period and we just don't see prolonged troughs in the East anymore like we did in the 70s-90s. It has become so hard to get cold East of the Apps as it seems were almost always on the fringe. But even Western NC, like Boone for example, doesn't get nearly the cold and snow they used to. Hopefully we'll see cyclical pattern changes that lead to more positive PNA and negative NAO in the near future.
The pacific has really been in control with primarily a trough in the west (-PNA) over that time period and we just don't see prolonged troughs in the East anymore like we did in the 70s-90s. It has become so hard to get cold East of the Apps as it seems were almost always on the fringe. But even Western NC, like Boone for example, doesn't get nearly the cold and snow they used to. Hopefully we'll see cyclical pattern changes that lead to more positive PNA and negative NAO in the near future.