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Pattern Dazzling December

Ollie Williams said:
Here was the pattern surrounding Christmas '83 when compared to the LR EPS. Some noticeable similarities between the strong -NAO and +PNA. However, this pattern has a -NAO, but less of a SE Canada Vortex.
View attachment 126059View attachment 126061
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I remember 77 & 83 very well extremely cold most of the continental US. This is why I still believe it's not a zero sum game in our patterns.
There's absolutely been patterns that get the lower 48 cold at the same time.
Clearly doesn't happen often but has happened a few times in my 50 plus years.
It's all about timing...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Notice the faster the cutoff ridge occurs on the trend/faster it disconnects from the higher heights in the GOA, the quicker the TPV moves out. That’s key since the cutoff ridge has flow sped up underneath, then the pac trough does it’s job pumping heights out west
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griteater said:
If we were going in a bad direction, you would think the ensemble mean would be either going in a worse direction or holding the line....but it's improving here on Dec 20th. I especially like the slight improvement with the -NAO placement. This is the GEFS Mean, last 5 runs

8WKsm5C.gif
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I do not disagree that the evolution of the GEFS did end up improved. I still believe we are on the razors edge of the energy digging too much and delaying the whole thing, but the 12z GEFS was an improvement and I amateurishly jumped the gun thinking it would be worse (see GEPS).

I am more than happy to be the sacrificial board idiot and eat crow in the snow on Christmas ☃️. In fact, I think I deserve this treatment and it's only fair I be punished with an embarrassing amount of cold and snow ;).
 
gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh222_trend (2).gifGreat look for sure, but wouldn't this be a nod towards the OP? Stronger looking push of cold, but the push ticked further West. Like others have mentioned, last thing we want (Speaking for areas in the Southeast) is for this to dig to aggressively into the Southern plains. Everything gets delayed, then we wait an eternity for the cold to bleed East. Just seems like the latest GEFS was a nod towards a dump further West, which we don't want to much of.
 
Hypsometric said:
I do not disagree that the evolution of the GEFS did end up improved. I still believe we are on the razors edge of the energy digging too much and delaying the whole thing, but the 12z GEFS was an improvement and I amateurishly jumped the gun thinking it would be worse (see GEPS).

I am more than happy to be the sacrificial board idiot and eat crow in the snow on Christmas ☃️. In fact, I think I deserve this treatment and it's only fair I be punished with an embarrassing amount of cold and snow ;).
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There's a lot going on here (not surprisingly). One one hand, the CMCE is slower to kick the SW Canada TPV east compared to the GEFS, but it ends up moving faster east so they essentially catch up. But also, the GEFS does later have that look of a heavy Arctic plunge into TX (like the GFS Op)....with CMCE moving the cold more west to east into the Ohio Valley
 
Robert West said:
View attachment 126071Great look for sure, but wouldn't this be a nod towards the OP? Stronger looking push of cold, but the push ticked further West. Like others have mentioned, last thing we want (Speaking for areas in the Southeast) is for this to dig to aggressively into the Southern plains. Everything gets delayed, then we wait an eternity for the cold to bleed East. Just seems like the latest GEFS was a nod towards a dump further West, which we don't want to much of.
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nit-picking at the mb contours but they still dive a little deeper south east unless I'm mistaken
 
Robert West said:
View attachment 126071Great look for sure, but wouldn't this be a nod towards the OP? Stronger looking push of cold, but the push ticked further West. Like others have mentioned, last thing we want (Speaking for areas in the Southeast) is for this to dig to aggressively into the Southern plains. Everything gets delayed, then we wait an eternity for the cold to bleed East. Just seems like the latest GEFS was a nod towards a dump further West, which we don't want to much of.
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If You look the cold air is more expansive and the colder air fans out more and better. Better for the cold air to slide across than dive down. If this trough dives down we can kiss any snow bye-bye.
 
Hypsometric said:
I do not disagree that the evolution of the GEFS did end up improved. I still believe we are on the razors edge of the energy digging too much and delaying the whole thing, but the 12z GEFS was an improvement and I amateurishly jumped the gun thinking it would be worse (see GEPS).

I am more than happy to be the sacrificial board idiot and eat crow in the snow on Christmas ☃️. In fact, I think I deserve this treatment and it's only fair I be punished with an embarrassing amount of cold and snow ;).
Click to expand...
Model watching will make you question your whole life lol.
 
Met1985 said:
If You look the cold air is more expansive and the colder air fans out more and better. Better for the cold air to slide across than dive down. If this trough dives down we can kiss any snow bye-bye.
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The other thing that I’ll point is that often when the cold air dives down hard like January 1994 for example, anything trying to come out of the southern stream get squashed to the southern Gulf or sheared out completely. Honestly,the January 1988 storm is a great example of how you want a cold airmass to come in.
 
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