-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Euro is looking worse. 
Another Seattle TPV… how are they doing this 
Initially yes but when everything gets kicked out .. we will get the cold hammer .. then we see if we can do anything with that cold
By the time everything gets kicked out, a new one will be moving back into the kick-out position, at least the way it looks to me.
a few more moves like this and somebody might be in business 
This is almost the exact progression as last January to the +PNA, AK ridge gets squished and pushed poleward and cuts off, flow speeds up under 
Once the pac block gets north of barrow we should be fine. It's the same progression as the last few ninas
The ridge axis is still too far west. The top rolls over and directs the flow back westward. The ULL NW of HI is no good. It needs to be farther east. All of this argues for lower heights in the west or maybe central US eventually. The block in NE Canada should squash the SE ridge, but the storm track is still not going to be favorable until you move the western ridge axis quite a bit east. There are ways to get there. But we keep wanting to get drawn back to maps that look like this, for some reason.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's where the Euro ended:
Very similar evolution to last year/January, basically how I mentioned it above, I like it
The week of Christmas, especially close to Christmas still holds tons of potential...Here's where the Euro ended:
Yep even with the fail factor in play we end up with this. Blocking forcing storm track south and a 1070 high pressure drilling in from the NW .. I will take this especially being shown on king euroHere's where the Euro ended:
Absolutely fine with failing on the 20 system if we get this look a few days later. I mean this is just tremendous this ain’t going to cut into that HIGH (and while I know there will be a lot of people who say oh nooo delayed and denied coming.. it’s just not the same here in this scenario as what people have alluded to before the progression of a pattern like this is something we’ve seen and it has support from exactly what we went through last year) 
A 1070? I know it's on the 10-day but that's a baller
late dec 2021 and next week… 
The differences between GEFS and GFS are interesting.. GFS op being more similar to the ECMWF op and the GEFS having much more blocking.
Main difference begins around 144-156 hrs. GEFS has a strong blocking high pressure connecting from the pacific Northwest thru the plains and into the southeast.. this keeps cutters 'at bay' and allows the blocking to become much more pronounced later in the run across the US, eventually forcing a very conducive storm track along the gulf coast.
GFS and ECMWF ops both have weaker blocking during that first period which allows a cutter to form in the lee of the rockies and push thru the midwest and into Canada, essentially preventing or delaying the blocking from becoming established.
One thing to note, however, is that regardless of this behavior, they all eventually have a strong blocking pattern across much of the US.
Main difference begins around 144-156 hrs. GEFS has a strong blocking high pressure connecting from the pacific Northwest thru the plains and into the southeast.. this keeps cutters 'at bay' and allows the blocking to become much more pronounced later in the run across the US, eventually forcing a very conducive storm track along the gulf coast.
GFS and ECMWF ops both have weaker blocking during that first period which allows a cutter to form in the lee of the rockies and push thru the midwest and into Canada, essentially preventing or delaying the blocking from becoming established.
One thing to note, however, is that regardless of this behavior, they all eventually have a strong blocking pattern across much of the US.
But let’s add a sprinkle more -NAO and a pinch of stronger -AO/-EPO in the mix so we can add some gasoline to explosion
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 1070mb sfc high over western Canada on today's 12z ECMWF run completely obliterates previous SLP records for December.
Just started a 144 hour MMFS run to see if it detects anything sneaky with the first wave (around hour 138-144). It's 4km so maybe can offer some hires insight in the given setup.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely a very noticeable trend on the ensembles today towards a deeper trough over the Pacific NW & SW Canada thru the middle of next week.
Likely would delay the arrival of the cold somewhat leading into the Winter Solstice, but end up getting even colder in the long-run (esp around Christmas & beyond) because the wave pattern is more amplified & pumping more cold air out of Siberia & the polar cap down into the CONUS + Canada.
Likely would delay the arrival of the cold somewhat leading into the Winter Solstice, but end up getting even colder in the long-run (esp around Christmas & beyond) because the wave pattern is more amplified & pumping more cold air out of Siberia & the polar cap down into the CONUS + Canada.
The only thing most of us get out of that setup is rain besides some of you who may get ice. Bad look.
packfan98
Moderator
There's a lot to like about this look. Ridge in the west, broad based trough in the east with the potential for a long tracking Miller A storm. Blocking up top too.
Euro was definitely going to smack upper SE region .. I agree NC probably did the best but that storm was developing South and east it was not going for a cut seeing as a 1070 mb high was crashing in on top of it
But for 240 hours .. yeah I’ll take it
Yeah that’s a big ice look for us dews were in the single digits lol
iGRXY
Member
Translation: we're doing a lot of table setting so far this winter, are we ever going to get to eat?
Comparison of EPS from yesterday's 12z run to today's 12z......all good moves here (well except less -NAO...boo)
Maybe NC area at most like I said if you like ice. LLJ already flowing good. Kentucky may do pretty well.
A sustained cross polar tap here on the EPS
iGRXY
Member
Solid signal around Day 10/11 through the 27th. I have been saying the last 10 day of December is what I like and anything before that is just gravy at this point.
Not going to lie I'm off next week and i wouldn't mind seeing 70s until about Thursday to have some cool weather for the holiday. Need to get out to the course before then.
That said with the weak -nao and the first shot of cold other than a warm up ahead of a reload I just can't see a lot of sustained warm even in a non classic look
That said with the weak -nao and the first shot of cold other than a warm up ahead of a reload I just can't see a lot of sustained warm even in a non classic look
I've seen Judah have some success with his in-house model here....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A sustained cross polar tap here on the EPS
We're really trying to go back to the old well of -EPO/+TNH that gave us success in the 2010s (& for part of the 1980s & 90s)
iGRXY
Member
Let’s run it back. New Years 2018. We had flurries flying as the ball dropped and most ofI've seen Judah have some success with his in-house model here....
the country was in a deep freeze.
NCSNOW
Member
Grit with the quote of the day:
"We keep setting the table but are we ever gonna get to eat":: LOL, my thoughts exactly. Hopefully this week of Christmas and week after Start Time doesn't get kicked down the road any futher.
"We keep setting the table but are we ever gonna get to eat":: LOL, my thoughts exactly. Hopefully this week of Christmas and week after Start Time doesn't get kicked down the road any futher.
models rushed the -NAO and its associated change but it’s happening, models rushed the pacific change but imho with the progression I still think It happens, models just being models, pattern changes are always rushed. Even last Dec-Jan’s progression was rushed.