L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah that’s true. Didn’t we have a +NAO last January when it snowed 3 times? I believe we had a +PNA and +NAO
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah that’s true. Didn’t we have a +NAO last January when it snowed 3 times? I believe we had a +PNA and +NAO
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My concern has been the absence of big cold on our side of the globe, outside of a couple of model runs. That said, a nice tall western ridge can establish cross-polar flow and resolve that issue fairly efficiently. In the meantime, weaker cold is still cold and will more than suffice in helping to establish crucial snow cover to our north.
Gefs just caved to the EPS in one run with a western ridge (+PNA/-EPO) 
Hypsometric
Member
What was that about the GEFS being a good model last night? Right or wrong, the way this ensemble varies is not the way ensembles were intended to operate. Only one word can accurately summarize the GEFS: trash.
I mean this is a joke!
Night and day to what it was showing 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah that was me who said it was good. I was wrong. The eps has definitely been the most consistent model out of them all. Still time to change but hopefully this is a start to good things
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If the EPS is the more correct (and we still aren't sure) look then you can still expect the GEFS to ebb and flow a bit but it's changes generally can subside to less radical swings and narrow more closely to the EPS
SnowNiner
Member
Is it colder with more ridging out west, taping that cold pool?
griteater
Member
I present to you the Canadian Center for Ensemble Forecasting
I share that because the euro had snow in that very time frame last night on the control run.
Yeah this is beautiful 
packfan98
Moderator
A couple 12z GEFS members with good SE winter storms. Looks like this should be our best mean yet maybe?
ensembles coming in hot 
This is almost a 100% EPS cave, consistent Aleutian low-troughing/+PNA through much of the run 
Much more B.C ridging this euro run around day 7. Let’s see how it progresses 
Brick Tamland
Member
GFS has been honking for a while with potential. Bad thing is the storms that show up on the long range keep getting pushed back a couple of days.