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Pattern Dazzling December

Even in the southeast we don't need every three letter index on our side to get a storm.

Yeah that’s true. Didn’t we have a +NAO last January when it snowed 3 times? I believe we had a +PNA and +NAO


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Not enough cold air to tap, though. But it's too far out for details. Waiting on the Euro...
My concern has been the absence of big cold on our side of the globe, outside of a couple of model runs. That said, a nice tall western ridge can establish cross-polar flow and resolve that issue fairly efficiently. In the meantime, weaker cold is still cold and will more than suffice in helping to establish crucial snow cover to our north.
 
Gefs just caved to the EPS in one run with a western ridge (+PNA/-EPO) View attachment 124913
What was that about the GEFS being a good model last night? Right or wrong, the way this ensemble varies is not the way ensembles were intended to operate. Only one word can accurately summarize the GEFS: trash.

I mean this is a joke!

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh240_trend (1).gif
 
What was that about the GEFS being a good model last night? Right or wrong, the way this ensemble varies is not the way ensembles were intended to operate. Only one word can accurately summarize the GEFS: trash.

I mean this is a joke!

View attachment 124914

Yeah that was me who said it was good. I was wrong. The eps has definitely been the most consistent model out of them all. Still time to change but hopefully this is a start to good things


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