Pattern Dazzling December

[EthanLovesWeather]

I’ve just heard the the Euro/EPS Have a bad reputation for developing +PNA’s that don’t verify. I understand your point though


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This is exactly right. In my personal opinion the models will continue to falsely hint at a major cold air intrusion for mid December…and then mid to late December…and then late December…and so on. There is simply NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR to work with over our part of the Northern Hemisphere. Most of the cold has been sloshed to parts of Asia and Siberia because of anomalous heights across the North Pacific AND North Atlantic, cutting off a stream of expansive deep cold to North America. Conventionally, the NAO is good for snow and cold across the south and east. NOT THIS TIME. What defines success out of the NAO is it’s ability to Push and redirect cold air south. When our source region is inadequate and the FOX ISLAND, Alaska high remains more than stubborn, we can expect what cold that does exist on our side of the NH to be redirected and consistently pushed west and southwest to the -pna trough extending from eastern Alaska, through the west Canadian coast, and down to California. Until the North Pacific waters cool and the high pressure mass over Alaska’s Islands dissipates we can expect the NAO currently in place to NOT mean much for cold and snow in the Eastern US!

 

[LukeBarrette]

The issue is though, Is that it’s looked like this at hour 240 for the last couple of days. Keeps pushing back.


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I’ve been critical but this seems like the closest it’s been. I’m starting to truly believe this big time snowstorm in the in the northern plains coming up will set the stage.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is exactly right. In my personal opinion the models will continue to falsely hint at a major cold air intrusion for mid December…and then mid to late December…and then late December…and so on. There is simply NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR to work with over our part of the Northern Hemisphere. Most of the cold has been sloshed to parts of Asia and Siberia because of anomalous heights across the North Pacific AND North Atlantic, cutting off a stream of expansive deep cold to North America. Conventionally, the NAO is good for snow and cold across the south and east. NOT THIS TIME. What defines success out of the NAO is it’s ability to Push and redirect cold air south. When our source region is inadequate and the FOX ISLAND, Alaska high remains more than stubborn, we can expect what cold that does exist on our side of the NH to be redirected and consistently pushed west and southwest to the -pna trough extending from eastern Alaska, through the west Canadian coast, and down to California. Until the North Pacific waters cool and the high pressure mass over Alaska’s Islands dissipates we can expect the NAO currently in place to NOT mean much for cold and snow in the Eastern US!

A -EPO from west pacific tropical forcing would take care of all those problems

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Beginning of the setup is
At day 6-7 now, if we hold this up thru Thursday this might be a legit change

 

[Hypsometric]

Euro has certainly been putting out some eye candy the past few runs.

 

[Mitch West]

The issue is though, Is that it’s looked like this at hour 240 for the last couple of days. Keeps pushing back.


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The change always had a "deadline" of around mid month, which is the last day of the Euro. Anything before that was always going to be bonus in my opinion. Now if we get to the end of this weekend & we still see the same cold air mass just arriving across the Central US at HR 240, then we have to begin to question many more things on what we thought was going to happen.

 

[Arcc]

Euro has certainly been putting out some eye candy the past few runs.

View attachment 124943

About as classic a look preluding a Deep South snow as you get. Positive tilt S/W dives SE as the Aleutian low builds in, pumping the west coast ridge. The PV lobe over the Hudson always a concern for shearing, but it’s reality for winter in the south. Gotta live on the knife’s edge to get snow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS wasn’t as good as I expected, kept lower heights stuck in the west

 

[whatalife]

?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

EPS wasn’t as good as I expected, kept lower heights stuck in the west View attachment 124944View attachment 124945

These models man. I was jus thinking in my head after the GEFS was so legit that the EPS would suck. But I told myself no way because the EPS has been so consistent. This sucks.


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

End of the Canadian was about to drop the -EPO hammer. I wish it went out another 100 hours so I could save it to my spank bank

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This doesn’t look like a lack of cold air, this looks like a ---- Ton of spread

 

[tennessee storm]

About as classic a look preluding a Deep South snow as you get. Positive tilt S/W dives SE as the Aleutian low builds in, pumping the west coast ridge. The PV lobe over the Hudson always a concern for shearing, but it’s reality for winter in the south. Gotta live on the knife’s edge to get snow.

Eye candy n is that severe threat been showing

 

[Rain Cold]

End of the Canadian was about to drop the -EPO hammer. I wish it went out another 100 hours so I could save it to my spank bank View attachment 124946

Dueling omega blocks. That's new ?

 

[Chazwin]

EPS wasn’t as good as I expected, kept lower heights stuck in the west View attachment 124944View attachment 124945

I’m not too concerned with that as smoothed put mean. The individual members still strongly support the good pattern. Also I just had a chance to look up the updated teleconnections today and they continue the consistency they’ve been showing for the last week or so. Strongly
-NAO relaxing somewhat from about the 15th on but still holding negative. The PNA reaching neutral, maybe just slightly positive around the same time. -AO holding and the MJO hanging out in the COD to low amp 8-2…. Hard to complain about that. The other thing is that is important to remember is that much of the south can get cold enough for winter weather even with the coldest in Asia… it’s happened quite a bit. Canada is staying cold and there’s been nothing to flood things up there with mild Pacific air like we saw for much of December 2020.

 

[Rain Cold]

?

The GEFS and the GEPS cave to the EPS and the EPS caves to the GEFS and the GEPS. What a mess!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Must be a complex pattern. Lots of moving parts and the models are having a hard time nailing things down.

 

[Rain Cold]

This is exactly right. In my personal opinion the models will continue to falsely hint at a major cold air intrusion for mid December…and then mid to late December…and then late December…and so on. There is simply NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR to work with over our part of the Northern Hemisphere. Most of the cold has been sloshed to parts of Asia and Siberia because of anomalous heights across the North Pacific AND North Atlantic, cutting off a stream of expansive deep cold to North America. Conventionally, the NAO is good for snow and cold across the south and east. NOT THIS TIME. What defines success out of the NAO is it’s ability to Push and redirect cold air south. When our source region is inadequate and the FOX ISLAND, Alaska high remains more than stubborn, we can expect what cold that does exist on our side of the NH to be redirected and consistently pushed west and southwest to the -pna trough extending from eastern Alaska, through the west Canadian coast, and down to California. Until the North Pacific waters cool and the high pressure mass over Alaska’s Islands dissipates we can expect the NAO currently in place to NOT mean much for cold and snow in the Eastern US!

The Euro gets there. Like I said earlier, establish the EPO ridging and you'll get an efficient buildup of cold air in Canada. And we don't need all of it to come from Siberia. It's dark up there in the Arctic. Cold will build up if you block the Pacific. Would like to see troughs quit setting up along and off the west coast, though. It's becoming quite annoying.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I’m not too concerned with that as smoothed put mean. The individual members still strongly support the good pattern. Also I just had a chance to look up the updated teleconnections today and they continue the consistency they’ve been showing for the last week or so. Strongly
-NAO relaxing somewhat from about the 15th on but still holding negative. The PNA reaching neutral, maybe just slightly positive around the same time. -AO holding and the MJO hanging out in the COD to low amp 8-2…. Hard to complain about that. The other thing is that is important to remember is that much of the south can get cold enough for winter weather even with the coldest in Asia… it’s happened quite a bit. Canada is staying cold and there’s been nothing to flood things up there with mild Pacific air like we saw for much of December 2020.

If the NAO switches to positive wouldn’t it take 2 weeks to effect the pattern?


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[Rain Cold]

If the NAO switches to positive wouldn’t it take 2 weeks to effect the pattern?


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No. Warm is instantaneous. Cold has the lag time. Don't you know how this works yet?! ?