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Pattern Dazzling December

This is how you like a good winter storm to progress in the SE … a while of pattern recognition and model waffling .. as you get closer with time the pattern seems more absolute.. snow mean begins showing up but nothing aggressive.. a possible fail in modeling (slight panic) .. progressing snow means on all global model ensemble means .. then a slow uptick in these as we get closer. Let’s cross our fingers we can cash in this December boys and girls.
 
So I'm experimenting a bit with putting in graphical form the number of ensemble members that show a winter storm over 2 day periods

Here is the area that I used for determining whether the member was a winter storm hit (sorry for those to the west, etc). I simply viewed the precip type maps that showed all of the ensemble members, and I kept a tally of each winter storm hit (snow or ice) in this blue zone.

FtlV4vU.png



Here is what I came up with for the 12z model runs - GEFS / CMCE / EPS. So, we can see from this run that the most hits showed up for Dec 22-23. The total number of hits for Dec 22-23 was 27 of the 100 ensemble members across all 3 models (i.e. 27% of the members showed a winter storm for Dec 22-23).

iiwWXYc.png



A few things:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total


This is the type of ensemble member precip type output that I reviewed for determining the numbers (this image is from the new 18z GEFS - I see some have already been posted)

sdUsGvW.png
 
griteater said:
So I'm experimenting a bit with putting in graphical form the number of ensemble members that show a winter storm over 2 day periods

Here is the area that I used for determining whether the member was a winter storm hit (sorry for those to the west, etc). I simply viewed the precip type maps that showed all of the ensemble members, and I kept a tally of each winter storm hit (snow or ice) in this blue zone.

FtlV4vU.png



Here is what I came up with for the 12z model runs - GEFS / CMCE / EPS. So, we can see from this run that the most hits showed up for Dec 22-23. The total number of hits for Dec 22-23 was 27 of the 100 ensemble members across all 3 models (i.e. 27% of the members showed a winter storm for Dec 22-23).

iiwWXYc.png



A few things:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total


This is the type of ensemble member precip type output that I reviewed for determining the numbers (this image is from the new 18z GEFS - I see some have already been posted)

sdUsGvW.png
Click to expand...
Great info there… thanks
 
ILMRoss said:
bro i have seen a lot of gfs runs in my day keeping tabs on wilmington and i have never seen that town be in play for three coastals on one single run lmao

edit:
tired: man it would be shame if richmond got creamed while i was visiting my folks in wilmington

wired: i gotta get to wilmington as soon as possible no way im missing this

if there's a 1989 redux i levitate into heaven
Click to expand...
I’m spending Christmas in San Antonio with my sisters family so if you ask the 12z or 18z, I win either way.
 
Arcc said:
I think something else needs to be said, if the modeled snow pack on the GEFS verifies, we are gonna be looking at blistering cold. The models won’t resolve that at this range.
Click to expand...
Closest comparison I dug up for that big ridge ball above Alaska was Jan-Feb 1970 (Jan 1970 was on Fro’s CPC analog list)

1670895689513.png

1670895740298.png
 
A lot of hyperbole today in the comment sections. Some ready to wave off this pattern change until another 10 days to everyone excited about the 18z. Again and again be very weary of the op models. The ensembles are the way to go. It's obvious the op models ain't got a clue in my opinion. Id temper any doubt or high expectations of this upcoming pattern change.
 
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