Both huge events for NGA
That's the no phaser no warm nose ne ga/upstate sc special
Not really a negative PNA. A negative PNA is characterized by the difference between highest heights over the eastern pacific. So really, you look at the difference in heights between the US, and the lower heights east of Hawaii. The lower heights are still there, there just slightly weaker than 18z.
GFS now shows a -PNA.
+NAO, +AO, and -PNA
So a low can move due north directly into a block… geez this model is awful after 5 days.
If I remember correctly from last January, your model appeared to have a bias to suppress systems. Is this the case and if so has there been updates to it?
It's the GFS doing GFS things. I don't buy it for a minute.What even is this? ??View attachment 125982
what a wild meteorological depiction, with both a bombing low and maxed out high pressure anomalies that stretch from seattle to bermuda, how weird. -nao opens the door for weird things to happen, and we will continue to see complete head-scratcher scenarios spit out after 200hr. dont laugh too hard though... one of those scenarios will eventually gain a foothold.
model depictions like this are a feature of the -nao, not a bug of the gfs. expect the unexpected.What even is this? ??
Even still, I’ve been following weather models for 20 years and I’ve never seen anything like that. We’ve all laughed at the GFS when it wants to plow a low into a well established CAD, but this is an entirely new one
In the newest version of the MMFS-R, the bias has not been noticed. The version you're referring to was 2 versions ago and the current version's scores are vastly superior to that one.
Ok… good info. I just remembered that with the 2nd of last January’s storms, it was keeping all the precip east of I-95 until about
I've done a ton of work on the model since last winter and have invested a good bit of money in the infrastructure.. there's even a 1km local resolution now, generally centered in North Ga/Alabama (but can be moved around as needed).
what i'll respond with though is, how many times over the last 20 years have we seen such robust arctic blocking?
Great point about the lack of blocking in the last 2 decades and models not sure what to do with it. It’s just so strange to see a solution that wild and completely outside of what we typically see.what i'll respond with though is, how many times over the last 20 years have we seen such robust arctic blocking?
as for the actual meteorology of it- massive trough tilting negative- this is about as fantasy megastorm look as you can get. the surface cyclone only got capped at 984mb because the rest of the ambient pressure was so high lol. to your point- this would be absolutely wild if it happened and this is not a serious solution. what i'm saying is, this pattern is likely going to produce something very weird and very perplexing and we may be viewing it with scrutiny because of how weird it is until it is 48 hours away.
True True.. Im optimistic the ensembles are right this time.
