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Pattern Dazzling December

Loganelliott99 said:
If the NAO switches to positive wouldn’t it take 2 weeks to effect the pattern?


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Yes it would, but just a note on that is that while that -NAO relaxes around the 15th, it doesn’t ever go away… in fact it starts to tail deeper negative at the end of the graph. It nothing unusual for -NAOs that hang around for bit to fluctuate in strength. In fact it’s during those times of relaxing that you often see storms. That’s one of the reasons that I think the 18th-23rd timeframe should be watched. The combination teleconnections really do favor a winter storm in the southeast
 
Rain Cold said:
The Euro gets there. Like I said earlier, establish the EPO ridging and you'll get an efficient buildup of cold air in Canada. And we don't need all of it to come from Siberia. It's dark up there in the Arctic. Cold will build up if you block the Pacific. Would like to see troughs quit setting up along and off the west coast, though. It's becoming quite annoying.

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Honestly the very positive tilt shortwaves diving into the SW doesn’t look bad to me as long they stay progressive.

I haven’t looked deeply at the new runs, but my guess with the EPS is just a progressive pattern with short waves diving down the ridge into the south west and then the ridge flexing before the next wave beats it back some. If we are lucky maybe we will get two or three cycles of this setup with the PV lobe staying close to the Hudson.
 
And the 8-14. I don't really even care anymore. It doesn't snow here in Dec anyway. I do get tired of torching the whole holiday season from Thanksgiving to Christmas though every year. This garbage pattern can't last all winter so it has to flip and likely in time for peak climo in January20221206_170548.jpg.
 
Not bitterly cold but nasty,,,One of the most stout wedges I have seen in a long time in ATL NEWARD.
 

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Do y’all think this a better run so far?
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Not crazy. But favors the EPS before the crappy 12z run
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80/72 here today with walk to wall sunshine. Dew in the low to mid-60’s. Much warmer than normal is par for the course now I guess. I do appreciate the sunshine though. This time of year is annoyingly dark even way down here in Miami. If we had proper winter weather I wouldn’t mind but 80F with pre-5:30pm sunsets is infuriating. Downside to the sunshine is that because of the low sun angle the ------- thing is always in your eyes.
 
I'm going to Tucson for a week on Monday. It looks abnormally cold which is rather annoying since I plan on playing lots of golf while I'm there. However, if I get a snowstorm out of it all will be forgiven. EPS gives about a 20% chance of accumulating snow next Tuesday there.

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AJ1013 said:
80/72 here today with walk to wall sunshine. Dew in the low to mid-60’s. Much warmer than normal is par for the course now I guess. I do appreciate the sunshine though. This time of year is annoyingly dark even way down here in Miami. If we had proper winter weather I wouldn’t mind but 80F with pre-5:30pm sunsets is infuriating. Downside to the sunshine is that because of the low sun angle the ------- thing is always in your eyes.
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Wow. I didn't realize the sun angle was that low in the tropics !
 
Snowlover87 said:
Wow. I didn't realize the sun angle was that low in the tropics !
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"Low" is obviously relative but the peak here today is 41* or something. For a kid born and raised in the tropics it's low. And since I work as a golf instructor it's irritating having to stare into the sun all day.

This is at solar noon today
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