James is a GOAT when it comes to severe. He's saved so many lives over the years that it's hard to calculate.
However, winter is not his strong suit.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
However, winter is not his strong suit.
Damn, it’s early
Still pretty different Vs TT
Hypsometric
Member
Odd! Well, I like wxbell better!!
My only other thought is that the TT map is just for the forecast hour 360 (so, 00z on Wednesday 12/21) and the wxbell map is a 24 hour average (00z Tuesday 12/20 to 00z Wednesday 12/21). This may just be the most time I've ever spent diagnosing a 360 hr model output lol.
While obviously silly to spend time worrying about this, I think this does highlight the importance of really paying attention to exactly what is being shown on a given map. I don't think either one of these maps are incorrect, but they do display similar data in a different way that can very easily be misconstrued.
2.9" in the gauge here, definitely an overperformer.
Sadly I have to agree with you at this point. Also, it's early as you mentioned, but we are approaching the front-end of prime climo with these looksEPS still looks fine, but the end result still doesn't really get any real cold into the SE through the end of the run. I know the temp maps are not to be taken verbatim, but I like to use them to see general patterns of where the cold air is, where it's moving, and when. Even on the EPS, with a better pacific, the cold stays mostly locked up in the Northwest/Midwest. GEFS is the same with a worse pacific.
I could be wrong, but I'm starting to come to the opinion that this specific -NAO regime is not going to deliver the cold. We're going to need the pacific to open the gates of the cold out west before we have a real chance at a wintery event IMO. If we can get both, with the -NAO keeping the storm track south, that's great, but until the blues spill down the conus, I think it would be really difficult for us to get cold enough.
I have a lot of hope toward the end of the month, but a great pattern is really not visible yet in the models that I can see. Wonderfully early and happy it's only December. And again, if I can get a seasonal December and cold in January, that's an absolute win. So I wait.
smast16
Member
No one should be broken hearted. This is par for the course. Cold LR, only to warm up and fall this ---- under 200 hrs.
#longlivethepactrough
severestorm
Member
LOL
the front is literally in the process of coming through in that frame.LOL
BAM----
BAMWX
@bamwxcom
Shown is the trend over the last 20 runs of the American and European GWHDD unit forecast. The absolute monumental bust of the arrival of any kind of notable cold air is one for the books...again. A lot of players on the field this year that supported cold too. #natgas #oott
BAMWX
@bamwxcom
A couple of things Alec.. 1. There are several reasons why I still want to forecast big cold and it can still very well happen 2. The major delays and lack of anything noteable to date has me very concerned the Pacific is going to have the final say..the warmer say.
BAMWX
@bamwxcom
Shown is the trend over the last 20 runs of the American and European GWHDD unit forecast. The absolute monumental bust of the arrival of any kind of notable cold air is one for the books...again. A lot of players on the field this year that supported cold too. #natgas #oott
BAMWX
@bamwxcom
A couple of things Alec.. 1. There are several reasons why I still want to forecast big cold and it can still very well happen 2. The major delays and lack of anything noteable to date has me very concerned the Pacific is going to have the final say..the warmer say.
I don’t think there has been any sort of bust on the arrival of cold air. Every reputable source has been targeting around the 15th or so, and the teleconnections have continued to support this.BAM----
BAMWX
@bamwxcom
Shown is the trend over the last 20 runs of the American and European GWHDD unit forecast. The absolute monumental bust of the arrival of any kind of notable cold air is one for the books...again. A lot of players on the field this year that supported cold too. #natgas #oott
BAMWX
@bamwxcom
A couple of things Alec.. 1. There are several reasons why I still want to forecast big cold and it can still very well happen 2. The major delays and lack of anything noteable to date has me very concerned the Pacific is going to have the final say..the warmer say.
Hypsometric
Member
I'm pretty surprised no one is talking about this look:
The control run was a suppressed track with the trailing wave. If we hold this general look, this one has to be watched if there is some trailing energy once the cold becomes established.
The control run was a suppressed track with the trailing wave. If we hold this general look, this one has to be watched if there is some trailing energy once the cold becomes established.
Control run had that storm followed by an end of run event that was gathering in Texas that would've probably arrived two days before christmas.
bigstick10
Member
NE Ga Wx
Member
So far mby was sitting at a total of 3.45" when I left for work. This has been a cold rain with temps hovering around 42. Looks like its just about over and warming up a slowly
I like that little lobe continuing to drop down .. funny the inconsistency
This was the CMC at 240, probably the best look from all the Ops for that period. A weaker lobe of the PV is trapped in central and eastern Canada and the northern and northeastern US under the blocking over the top.
Here's the Euro. Not far off from the Canadian. The EPOish ridge is more eastward and you have a pretty strong block over the top. The big cold is trapped on the other side of the globe, but the air over here would be chilly nonetheless (once the storm in the upper midwest moves east), particularly with what the CMC is showing. I'm not sure how the Euro would evolve from here. There are plenty of options, but the low pressure shown over/near the Aleutians is definitely better than the ridging that has been there forever.
Now, here's the 6z GFS at 384. Absolutely horrible map that needs no further commentary.
And here's the 0z GFS at 384. That's a mic-drop called-the-shot homerun. Why oh why can't this be at hour 48?
Here's the 0z GFS at 240. Trough west, ridge east. Terrible. But we know where that evolves to, as shown above.
And the 6z GFS at 240. Similar to 0z, though some of the blocking features are different. This map is also terrible and we see above that it evolves to a totally different direction.
My big takeaway is that we only have one run (maybe two if you count the awesomely reliable 240 CMC) with legit big cold on our side of the world. Until that changes, even if the ensembles show great 500 mb patterns, it's going to be hard to snow for most of the south and southeast.
I'm hopeful that good things out in time work inside D10 at some point and then better things start finding more consistency out at range. If we're still in this same spot one week to ten days from now, we'll need to put the guarantee stamp back up in the attic and look for the white flag.
Here's the Euro. Not far off from the Canadian. The EPOish ridge is more eastward and you have a pretty strong block over the top. The big cold is trapped on the other side of the globe, but the air over here would be chilly nonetheless (once the storm in the upper midwest moves east), particularly with what the CMC is showing. I'm not sure how the Euro would evolve from here. There are plenty of options, but the low pressure shown over/near the Aleutians is definitely better than the ridging that has been there forever.
Now, here's the 6z GFS at 384. Absolutely horrible map that needs no further commentary.
And here's the 0z GFS at 384. That's a mic-drop called-the-shot homerun. Why oh why can't this be at hour 48?
Here's the 0z GFS at 240. Trough west, ridge east. Terrible. But we know where that evolves to, as shown above.
And the 6z GFS at 240. Similar to 0z, though some of the blocking features are different. This map is also terrible and we see above that it evolves to a totally different direction.
My big takeaway is that we only have one run (maybe two if you count the awesomely reliable 240 CMC) with legit big cold on our side of the world. Until that changes, even if the ensembles show great 500 mb patterns, it's going to be hard to snow for most of the south and southeast.
I'm hopeful that good things out in time work inside D10 at some point and then better things start finding more consistency out at range. If we're still in this same spot one week to ten days from now, we'll need to put the guarantee stamp back up in the attic and look for the white flag.
Hypsometric
Member
I am 100% in agreement with you, with only this caveat: I think we are just starting to get inside D10 range so we haven't had many opportunities for op runs to show these favorable setups until just now. The op euro has shown similar looks for the past 2 or 3 runs, so there is some consistency (by D10 standards) there.
We are just at the very infant stages of getting a real peek at what the actual pattern may look like that we've been tracking for some time, and honestly having the op CMC and Euro showing these looks are pretty encouraging (to me). We all know major twists and turns are coming, and all we can do is sit back and see where things go.
I'd keep your stamp nearby
