• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

From my perspective we’re starting to see where our potentials are. 18-20 is our first shot at something. Most models are suppressed we also lack a big time table setter so marginal cold air possibly but definitely could be enough to get it done. Next is 23-26 where our cold air should theoretically be established where we will then look for overrunning or CAD set up of sorts. (Keep in mind there are fail potentials here especially with our second chance) but that’s what I’m seeing right now. After or during that round we have the potential for vodka cold plunging in. If anyone read Allan Hoffmanns write up earlier he talks about how analogs put the coldest anomalies over us at the beginning of January.
 
Just for kicks the Euro control was pretty active. Gulf coast, Atlantic coast, and a big storm further north. 2nd half of December looking like fun times ahead.
26A79EA0-433B-43AF-A30E-2D5A80B7FECF.png
However the EPS as a whole is just crazy cold. 10 day average with practically the whole country solidly below average.AD13E1A7-6909-443D-8726-A032B085D134.png
 
BufordWX said:
Just for kicks the Euro control was pretty active. Gulf coast, Atlantic coast, and a big storm further north. 2nd half of December looking like fun times ahead.
View attachment 125732
However the EPS as a whole is just crazy cold. 10 day average with practically the whole country solidly below average.View attachment 125733
Click to expand...
Coastal Carolinas (Jan 2018 vibes). I would like to see the precip and temp during this time.
 
Where PNA go?
gfs_z500_vort_namer_35.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
204Hours? In agreement with the CMC. Yeah, that does get my attention. (note the time stamp on the 500mB chart)
Click to expand...
but the CMC doesn’t have support from its ensembles either…. We all loved the 18z run of the GFS last night, but we also know that extreme of a solution is very unlikely. Anything past 5 days right now, attention has to given to ensembles
 
What I think I know this morning: Will change by 12z lol:

No upslope after table setter storm Thursday, swings front through. Or put it this way, not even close to what I thought would be possible/ was being advertised.
GFS OP is pure garbage/useless. So its up to the ensembles, Euro Op, Ukmet and Canadian op to try and get a clue.

Looks like next Mon/Tues is the 1st legit chance of frozen here. Can and Euro ops want to front end (ice would be best bet. Long way to go on this one as any frozen will be dictated by CAD Northeast HP/confluence etc.

Outside of that Cold/Dry/Suppress may end up being the theme rest of December. Cold will be there, its the moisture and timing some at the right time. But really who knows or what model can pin that down outside of 5 days.

Still feel great about the pattern. Really all you can ask for.
 
Surprised no one mention this, but the 00z EPS was a pretty nice improvement, improving the tilt of the ridge and having a faster start time of the colder pattern, all the ensembles took trends for the better last night 6730DDAA-E94B-4A1E-8F9E-0B8CCF3E43D7.gif
That pacific trough seems to be our saving grace, in the past they have heavily been associated with +PNA
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top