Pattern Dazzling December

[BullCityWx]

The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isnt advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, thats impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, espeacilly in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.

www.pivotalweather.com

the control run had some snow 24 hours out from the last frame of the euro.

 

[tennessee storm]

Yeah. Liking the severe possibility especially further west. Midsouth regions

MEG. Nws Memphis already hunting on severe weather possible with that big system early next week

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isn't advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential to run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, that's impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, especially in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal. We would all love to have the Royal Flush pattern ( -NAO,+PNA etc). But right now the Scraps the -NAO is hopefully going to throw us, will be enough to cook something up, if not that then hopefully prevent another Torchmas Season.

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.

www.pivotalweather.com

Keep delaying it 12 hours and we are back to square one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Chazwin]

The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isn't advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential to run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, that's impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, especially in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal. We would all love to have the Royal Flush pattern ( -NAO,+PNA etc). But right now the Scraps the -NAO is hopefully going to throw us, will be enough to cook something up, if not that then hopefully prevent another Torchmas Season.

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.

www.pivotalweather.com

Yeah… I don’t really get caught up on temperature maps 9-10 days out as to me that’s just too much of a detail. I’m focused on the overall pattern at 500mb because that’s what is going to control everything else. Again the EPS remains steady as she goes, but of course as a stated before, it will ultimately be more of a blend of what we’re seeing from the two suites. This would give us a pattern starting around the 15-16th that favors mostly slightly below average temperatures for us… not Vodka cold, but cold enough for many if an individual storm were to come along.

 

[NCSNOW]

Keep delaying it 12 hours and we are back to square one.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The Canadian ens says same thing. Its actually 12 hours faster. So the date is 12/14-12/15. Id circle 12/15. Funny that's almost 2 weeks post the NAO indices starting into the neg territory. Always hears its a 2 week lag. So if we haven't dipped the 850 mean into below normal by 12/14-12/15. Then you can Have the roost in here and Crow us down lol. Or Crow me down. I'm a + PNA fan before a -NAO fan, if I get to choose just one. Grit and Others are -NAO fans between the two. We all like both. But we can score good and often with just the -NAO if it sets up right. End of day, thats all that matters.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS was all round better last night in the pacific with more western ridging throughout most of the run

 

[Chazwin]

The Canadian ens says same thing. Its actually 12 hours faster. So the date is 12/14-12/15. Id circle 12/15. Funny that's almost 2 weeks post the NAO indices starting into the neg territory. Always hears its a 2 week lag. So if we haven't dipped the 850 mean into below normal by 12/14-12/15. Then you can Have the roost in here and Crow us down lol. Or Crow me down. I'm a + PNA fan before a -NAO fan, if I get to choose just one. Grit and Others are -NAO fans between the two. We all like both. But we can score good and often with just the -NAO if it sets up right. End of day, thats all that matters.

That lag time is such a great point, and it’s definitely something we’ve seen many times over the years.

 

[SD]

EPS was all round better last night in the pacific with more western ridging throughout most of the run
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Trying to load up a Miller B or overrunning system here

 

[Chazwin]

Trying to load up a Miller B or overrunning system here

Very close to the basic Miller B winter weather look for NC Piedmont/Foothills and SC Upstate than Webb has posted before.

 

[LukeBarrette]

EPS was all round better last night in the pacific with more western ridging throughout most of the run
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View attachment 124876View attachment 124877View attachment 124878

Lmk when we see this get within 7 days, then it’s time to get interested. All we’ve seen for the last week is the same type of pattern but it only shows up past 9 or so days.

 

[WXinCanton]

I'm waking up to 3.55" in the gauge since yesterday. A major overperformer here.

3.05 IMBY. Much needed and should help

 

[Arcc]

Looking through the EPS members ~280-310hrs, definitely some good agreement on a stout western ridge. A good number of those members would be pretty cold based on 500mb.

 

[Arcc]

Yeah… I don’t really get caught up on temperature maps 9-10 days out as to me that’s just too much of a detail. I’m focused on the overall pattern at 500mb because that’s what is going to control everything else. Again the EPS remains steady as she goes, but of course as a stated before, it will ultimately be more of a blend of what we’re seeing from the two suites. This would give us a pattern starting around the 15-16th that favors mostly slightly below average temperatures for us… not Vodka cold, but cold enough for many if an individual storm were to come along.

Trying to look for vodka cold on an 10-15 day mean is where most people get off track. Too much smoothing 95% of the time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Intense -NAO has Commenced

 

[EmersonGA]

I'm waking up to 3.55" in the gauge since yesterday. A major overperformer here.

"Only" 1.95 here. Over 5" in a matter of days makes up fast for the long dry we had.

 

[SnowNiner]

EPS was all round better last night in the pacific with more western ridging throughout most of the run
View attachment 124879
View attachment 124876View attachment 124877View attachment 124878

EPS still looks fine, but the end result still doesn't really get any real cold into the SE through the end of the run. I know the temp maps are not to be taken verbatim, but I like to use them to see general patterns of where the cold air is, where it's moving, and when. Even on the EPS, with a better pacific, the cold stays mostly locked up in the Northwest/Midwest. GEFS is the same with a worse pacific.

I could be wrong, but I'm starting to come to the opinion that this specific -NAO regime is not going to deliver the cold. We're going to need the pacific to open the gates of the cold out west before we have a real chance at a wintery event IMO. If we can get both, with the -NAO keeping the storm track south, that's great, but until the blues spill down the conus, I think it would be really difficult for us to get cold enough.

I have a lot of hope toward the end of the month, but a great pattern is really not visible yet in the models that I can see. Wonderfully early and happy it's only December. And again, if I can get a seasonal December and cold in January, that's an absolute win. So I wait.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS still looks fine, but the end result still doesn't really get any real cold into the SE through the end of the run. I know the temp maps are not to be taken verbatim, but I like to use them to see general patterns of where the cold air is, where it's moving, and when. Even on the EPS, with a better pacific, the cold stays mostly locked up in the Northwest/Midwest. GEFS is the same with a worse pacific.

I could be wrong, but I'm starting to come to the opinion that this specific -NAO regime is not going to deliver the cold. We're going to need the pacific to open the gates of the cold out west before we have a real chance at a wintery event IMO. If we can get both, with the -NAO keeping the storm track south, that's great, but until the blues spill down the conus, I think it would be really difficult for us to get cold enough.

I have a lot of hope toward the end of the month, but a great pattern is really not visible yet in the models that I can see. Wonderfully early and happy it's only December. And again, if I can get a seasonal December and cold in January, that's an absolute win. So I wait.

Interesting, weatherbell looks different

 

[bigstick10]

This is funny from James Spann

Ya think maybe???

"We do note global models are showing signals for colder weather for the Deep South over the latter half of December"…

 

[Chazwin]

Interesting, weatherbell looks different View attachment 124881

This is one of the reasons I don’t pay attention to temperature maps at this lead. It’s like surface maps… depending on who you’re using to get them it can look different based on that company’s programming. We’ve all seen some the crazy outputs that TT has put out there

 

[Hypsometric]

Interesting, weatherbell looks different View attachment 124881

One map is in Celsius and the other is in Fahrenheit....