EPS still looks fine, but the end result still doesn't really get any real cold into the SE through the end of the run. I know the temp maps are not to be taken verbatim, but I like to use them to see general patterns of where the cold air is, where it's moving, and when. Even on the EPS, with a better pacific, the cold stays mostly locked up in the Northwest/Midwest. GEFS is the same with a worse pacific.
I could be wrong, but I'm starting to come to the opinion that this specific -NAO regime is not going to deliver the cold. We're going to need the pacific to open the gates of the cold out west before we have a real chance at a wintery event IMO. If we can get both, with the -NAO keeping the storm track south, that's great, but until the blues spill down the conus, I think it would be really difficult for us to get cold enough.
I have a lot of hope toward the end of the month, but a great pattern is really not visible yet in the models that I can see. Wonderfully early and happy it's only December. And again, if I can get a seasonal December and cold in January, that's an absolute win. So I wait.