Pattern Dazzling December

[Tarheel1]

Sending it yalls way! Finally gonna feel like Christmas!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Tar Heel inspired me to look at my TWC forecast for Roanoke (which is just the GFS forecast). Looks great haha

 

[Myfrotho704_]

To top off the weenieness, the GEFS at the end of the run had another jet extension with another bout of Aleutian low ? remember how persistent it was last January ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

this is one of the best 10 day modeled patterns I’ve ever seen

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not much change with the 18z EPS to me, basically the same

 

[griteater]

Look Mama, we made it

 

[griteater]

18z GEFS Mean AO gets down to -4.6

 

[NCSNOW]

The GEFS literally has it all. -EPO/-NAO/-AO/+PNA, a strong subtropical jet, nice 50-50 low, with a wave hanging back over the SW US

The Holy Grail Pattern

 

[Oconeexman]

The Holy Grail Pattern

We could literally have a board wide from Texas to Virginia and up toward Iowa snowstorm and or multiple snows within a week in this set up. It really doesn't get any better. Not saying we can't find a way to screw it up but man I can't recall a more promising month ahead.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Oconeexman]

View attachment 125680

I mean could it get even better??

 

[Ollie Williams]

I mean could it get even better??

Yeah, center the lowest heights in SE Canada. Then we can get rid of the Great Lakes Low on some of the models

 

[Oconeexman]

Yeah, center the lowest heights in SE Canada. Then we can get rid of the Great Lakes Low on some of the models

Well considering the last decade it's about as good as it gets or as good as we've seen imo.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Well considering the last decade it's about as good as it gets or as good as we've seen imo.

Great Lakes' lows, or troughs centered over the great lakes, typically regress eastward with time. If this look verifies, our highest chances of a Miller-A storm would actually be around New Year as opposed to Christmas week.

 

[griteater]

If I'm keeping it 100 (lol), it was nice to see the GEFS trend a little east with the TPV that drops down above the Great Lakes and into SE Canada, but remember, the GEFS is the farthest east with this feature as was discussed. The CMCE and EPS were farther west with it. Both of those eventually push it east, but we would likely get into wintry threats quicker with the GEFS solution as it offers more ability to keep storms from climbing north. If you are in western areas of the forum, it's less of an issue for you.

Anyway, let's see where we go this evening. Here's a comparison of the big 3 ensembles with the placement of that TPV as it drops down - 18z GEFS / 12z CMCE / 12z EPS

 

[stephend122080]

Nice look on the 18z EPS next weekend.

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[NickyBGuarantee]

ICON 00z taking a step in a better direction out west getting rid of the deeper low pressure off the coast

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

ICON 00z taking a step in a better direction out west getting rid of the deeper low pressure off the coast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Hypsometric]

Mean trough axis has shifted dramatically further east on the ICON over the past few runs.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah this is improving, hockey stick

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The only thing that would save us from a period of SER torch next year would be something like this .. but obviously this is just something fun to look at not something with backing being this far out .. would be one hell of a SSWE

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Some comparisons from ICON and GFS at 18z ..ridging leaking up into northern Alaska on the ICON along with what looks like some stronger western -NAO

 

[Myfrotho704_]

One more to show how much we improved on the icon, at day 7

 

[Myfrotho704_]

less ridging in between the 2 troughs so far this run, but not enough to worry yet

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Worse

 

[Ollie Williams]

Worse View attachment 125694

I'm not at all upset. It looks just like 12z, which was a great run. 18z did weird things with the TPV getting stuck in Alaska. By no means bad IMO.

 

[HKY1994]

The energy in the southwest is getting kicked out this run, won’t be surprised to see a winter storm this run instead of suppression………scratch that still getting sheared out


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[Snowfan]

GFS trying to do something.

 

[Met1985]

Remember to lean on the ensembles... We will still get some subtle differences with each run because of the deep blocking taken place. Don't fret over one run.

 

[stephend122080]

Got a wave in the Gulf at 162, let's see where this goes

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[Snowfan]

Got a wave in the Gulf at 162, let's see where this goes

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It's too suppressed.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Too much suppression may be good at this range although I would like to see an actual depiction of a system

 

[iGRXY]

Suppressed wave at hr 168 is great.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still pretty good progression so far, interesting with the way the energy is getting held back in AK lol, looks Feb 2014ish lol

 

[LukeBarrette]

Still pretty good progression so far, interesting with the way the energy is getting held back in AK lol, looks Feb 2014ish lol View attachment 125695View attachment 125696

What a funky looking feature

 

[Snowfan]

CMC OP is complete garbage.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is a disaster

 

[LukeBarrette]

Yucky ridge

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Complete drop of the strong west based -NAO .. something the ensembles have stayed consistent on having.. tossing still not that bad of a run but that feature has held strong on ensembles and gfs has been bad with it for a while now