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Pattern Dazzling December

CMC kinda resembles the euro to me
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Myfrotho704_ said:
I notice the gfs/cmc is weakening our -NAO but now starting to show tall pacific ridges lol. We just can’t got both to coincide
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I mean the processes that produce the tall western ridge will often weaken the -NAO. Like I said earlier though, I do think the -NAO will have some staying power though it may fluctuate some on strength.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s showing a trend, and I use that word loosely when referring to the GFS, towards higher heights along the east coast and lower heights back west. Big change in the last 48 hours. Unfavorable but no one was really expecting this time period to produce. I think the only concern to be had is the kicking of the can. When does it stop?
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Bet the streak! W Coast trough is here, it’s not a mirage and most runs seem to come back to that after some waffling
 
griteater said:
Yep, CMC is on the Euro train. Looks tasty. GFS gets to where it needs to go late in the run
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What do you think about the prospects of severe weather as the pattern changes? I know from looking back there have been some winter severe weather outbreaks in the southeast as blocking builds in and leads to a colder pattern?
 
Chazwin said:
What do you think about the prospects of severe weather as the pattern changes? I know from looking back there have been some winter severe weather outbreaks in the southeast as blocking builds in and leads to a colder pattern?
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With respect to me commenting on severe weather, this quote comes to mind…

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt”
- Abe Lincoln
 
Euro pushing back cooler pattern outside of 240 hours now. EPS warmer than 12z (still not a horrible look). CFS warming trend each run. GFS/GEFS are king. I hate to say it but that’s what happening.


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0z from yesterday on 12/16 2m temps

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12z today on 12/16 2m temps
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0z today on 12/16 2m Temps
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I know many won’t like this post but it needs to be shown. A slow but steady warming trend. I chose this time because because this is when I believe that change was going to occur. I know many of you don’t want to believe it or accept the fact that this is a warming trend but it clearly is. First off, on the EURO and EPS the “pattern change” is getting delayed each run (things you don’t want to see). Also, the cold is getting less and less impressive each run (the 850s are also warming each run). This is obviously a bad trend for cold lovers, but assuring us that the GEFS could possibly be king.


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6z GFS is so terrible it's funny. It would indicate most of us wouldn't see freezing temps until at least day 14. And even that would be a quick hitting cool spell before the warmth comes back leading up to Christmas.

Edit: it does look to move towards a favorable pattern right at the end, which would be a few days before Christmas.
 
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BufordWX said:
Been watching my weather station back home today and I have to say that’s been a pretty persistent band of rain moving through north Georgia all day. Looks like it has been nearly continuous light to moderate rain there since about 1:15 PM

Already approaching 1.75” for the day and looks like a few more hours of rain are possible tonight. In addition to the 2.5” last week and there’s been a pretty decent burst of rainfall these past 7 days.
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I'm waking up to 3.55" in the gauge since yesterday. A major overperformer here.
 
The 0z EPS 850mb Mean is pretty much singing same tune as it was yesterday at 12z for My back yard. Its only about 12-15 hours latter with the arrival of below normal 850 temps from hour 240 all the way out to hr 360 which is as far as it goes. This isn't advertising Vodka cold at the surface, never has. Just shows the potential to run slightly below normal. As far as what can be offered at 500mb to whip up a storm, that's impossible to tell from 10 days out. Really about all one can ask for at this point, especially in light of last years December Roast Fest. See for yourself off pivotal. We would all love to have the Royal Flush pattern ( -NAO,+PNA etc). But right now the Scraps the -NAO is hopefully going to throw us, will be enough to cook something up, if not that then hopefully prevent another Torchmas Season.

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: EPS - Pivotal Weather

View EPS weather model forecast map image for 850 mb Temperature Anomaly [mean] in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
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