EPS snowfall for Columbia SC?
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Hypsometric
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I’ll play along. Can you do Anderson SC?
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
What’s coooler than cool? Ice cold.
RAH vague at this point, which is understandable:
"Friday onward: Model solutions begin to diverge Fri and Sat. The
upper low will continue its slow east-northeastward migration over
the upper Great Lakes Fri and Sat, where it will either sit through
the weekend, or it will lift northward and get absorbed into a
southward sinking low over central Canada. Forecast uncertainty
increases through the weekend, thus confidence is low. Will keep the
weather largely dry through the weekend, however the 12Z GFS does
show some precipitation over the region Sun. Temperatures should
gradually decrease from near average to below average Fri to Sun."
"Friday onward: Model solutions begin to diverge Fri and Sat. The
upper low will continue its slow east-northeastward migration over
the upper Great Lakes Fri and Sat, where it will either sit through
the weekend, or it will lift northward and get absorbed into a
southward sinking low over central Canada. Forecast uncertainty
increases through the weekend, thus confidence is low. Will keep the
weather largely dry through the weekend, however the 12Z GFS does
show some precipitation over the region Sun. Temperatures should
gradually decrease from near average to below average Fri to Sun."
Icon looks much much better 
That's such a subtle difference in the grand scheme, it makes my stomach hurt
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18z NAM temps for mid-afternoon on Wednesday. Again, no wintery precip but this is still winter weather folks.
I feel we are starting to play with the theoretical limits on how good a pattern can be on some of these runs.
This is that dreaded reference to the 'lakes low' we don't want to see folks.
Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC has gone from “not buying the pattern change” in this morning’s AFD to “kinda sorta maybe buying the pattern change a little” in the afternoon AFD. That’s about all you’ll ever get from them at this range (which I get):
Finally, we`ll be keeping an eye on next weekend where the latest
run of the GFS is now resolving a rain/snow system surging
through the Southeast. It is still very early in the forecast for
resolving wintry details and it still remains an outlier when
compared to other models which have the system pushing through a
couple days later, and further south, resolving all rain. However,
this system could be the first shot for some wintry precip for
the forecast area since last winter but chances for now are low.
Thiem
Finally, we`ll be keeping an eye on next weekend where the latest
run of the GFS is now resolving a rain/snow system surging
through the Southeast. It is still very early in the forecast for
resolving wintry details and it still remains an outlier when
compared to other models which have the system pushing through a
couple days later, and further south, resolving all rain. However,
this system could be the first shot for some wintry precip for
the forecast area since last winter but chances for now are low.
Thiem
I thought there were exceptions to that rule, whereas that low could be cut off and help funnel cold air southeastward.
I'll leave it to the experts but thinking only if it reacts like the ICON 18z depicts. Typically a parked LP over the GL is not good for us.
It also gives you an idea of how good the CAD could be when we end up with better snowpack in the northeast
More western driving this GFS run so far 
Maybe not for y’all, but it’s great for us in the Deep South.
I remember a couple years back, this came up and Webb came in with some info that the Lakes low hasn’t really made a considerable difference in past set ups
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Not even close! This is an actual system from the plains, the GLL is a different entity! Good try tho!
it’s more of a deep vortex over the Great Lakes, it’s a good thing in this instance since it’s broad and suppressing the height field keeping storm tracks south, only problem is cold can be a issue with it sometimes but it’s a setup that can produce
Storm looks suppressed this time. On GFS
Snowlove33
Member
@ArccSo are you saying us folks south of I-20 in the Deep South has a shot?
Late this week has been trending colder 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Stronger cold push on 18z
mydoortotheworld
Member
Obligatory “suppression at this stage of the game is good”?
I would think so. Especially being 7-8 days out.
Yeah this is good to see. There is a mixture out there right now with how the models and model ensembles are handling that. UKMet here drops the low out west (no good)
NoSnowATL
Member
Absolutely. It will like always will depend on timing and wave location, but the chance is definitely there.
Sounds right. Origin makes sense as typically we've just seen them parked up there and not moving...guess coming from Canada originally and not from points west and southwest
dsaur
Member
I love this kind of set up in winter because it gives everyone a good chance at decent precip. Pretty much straight west to east with a heavy band sandwiched in between light precip areas, and sagging south. Everyone gets the train as it sags. Hate a winter storm were the front is severely leaning from the far sw to the ne, and if it's slow moving, it's agony. Huntsville gets creamed, then Atl and kids are already sledding, and I'm waiting on precip to start...still. And finally when it's about all over and Atl has it's 6 inches, and the kids are tired of sledding, and the energy has shifted to the atlantic, a straggler band of rear guard energy comes bustling thru on howling winds and drops a quick inch in it's hurry. Energy like this today... sagging, slowly... giving all a chance is what I always want in winter with cold air in place.
Regardless of how this run turns out, this is a really good look on the GFS with ridging in SW Canada, troughing in SE Canada, and ridging over Greenland.....with high pressure streaming into N Dakota > Iowa at the sfc
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Miller B incoming ? Lots of cold rooted with this look 
GFS incoming. 1040mb high above the lakes with CAD
Shreveport slammer inside 180hr ? 
50/50 low hanging on. Nowhere for that high pressure to go 
The power of blocking50/50 low hanging on. Nowhere for that high pressure to go
Pants party from Dubuque to Decatur ? 
This is my type of CAD setup ??