Euro Control Run
Dang that setup is close to absolutely blistering cold.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Dang that setup is close to absolutely blistering cold.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
REPORT: GFS isn’t that bad
I’m not posting it
That is all
Thanks
I’m not posting it
That is all
Thanks
I guess it must have been bad since I haven't seen anything about it
Then it must be fantastic.
SnowNiner
Member
Euro Control Run
Lol, I don't think I've ever seen a -NAO block retrograde completely into an -EPO and +PNA ridge, leaving a +NAO in its place.
The 18z GFS is bad. Toss.
ATLwxfan
Member
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
It isn't persistent with the previous pattern. Just a different worse kind of bad?Pattern persistence…keep?
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I honestly think the euro is going to cave. The euro/eps has burned us in giving us several times. They are both so consistent on showing complete opposite outcomes. Will be interesting
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If the Euro caves to the GFS, we panic.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Do not be shocked. It happens more often than you think. Warning you now.
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Are you going to ignore verification scores?
At the end of the day just never trust the gfs whether is shows cold or warm/ bad or good.. it’s really just something to look at to see if it can align with the other models but I don’t put a bunch of stock in it especially since it was upgraded with worse verification scores.
Occasionally it has happened with individual storms in an established pattern, but not with the overall wide scale pattern. The development of the blocking and -NAO has followed right along with the Euro/EPS combo
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I’ve just heard the the Euro/EPS Have a bad reputation for developing +PNA’s that don’t verify. I understand your point though
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griteater
Member
Some thoughts on the pattern going forward, what the heck...
I don't see any reason not to be optimistic of the prospects for wintry weather (i.e. a better than average pattern) for the period Dec 20 to Jan 10 when considering the expected upcoming +EAsia Mtn Torque episodes plus the MJO combining with the La Nina signal and progressing from Indonesia to WPac to SAmerica. I think any slow down of the MJO in the Indian Ocean is just a blip, as this isn't a slow moving MJO that initiates in the Indian Ocean and slowly moves east. Rather, this is more of a weak MJO signal that is cycling, and it doesn't impart a significant signal on the pattern until it combines with the ongoing La Nina convection in the Maritime Continent.
The NAO is a wildcard in my mind. On one hand, we are going to be losing some of the lower stratosphere support for -NAO in the near term (-NAO is 7 times more likely when the lower stratosphere is in a weak state). On the other hand, the aforementioned +EAsia Mtn Torque and MJO progression would favor renewed blocking per historical cases. A pattern of solid western ridging combined with a heavy -NAO would move this pattern to a 5 (excellent).
Post Jan 10, I think we could see a relaxation in wintry prospects.
Those are my thoughts. As always, any long range forecasts / ideas are no better than an educated best guess.
One last thing: every single winter storm / every single cold pattern that has come to fruition has 'faced' mounds of doubters and haters on weather boards and in the cyber world. That's just the way it is. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't
I don't see any reason not to be optimistic of the prospects for wintry weather (i.e. a better than average pattern) for the period Dec 20 to Jan 10 when considering the expected upcoming +EAsia Mtn Torque episodes plus the MJO combining with the La Nina signal and progressing from Indonesia to WPac to SAmerica. I think any slow down of the MJO in the Indian Ocean is just a blip, as this isn't a slow moving MJO that initiates in the Indian Ocean and slowly moves east. Rather, this is more of a weak MJO signal that is cycling, and it doesn't impart a significant signal on the pattern until it combines with the ongoing La Nina convection in the Maritime Continent.
The NAO is a wildcard in my mind. On one hand, we are going to be losing some of the lower stratosphere support for -NAO in the near term (-NAO is 7 times more likely when the lower stratosphere is in a weak state). On the other hand, the aforementioned +EAsia Mtn Torque and MJO progression would favor renewed blocking per historical cases. A pattern of solid western ridging combined with a heavy -NAO would move this pattern to a 5 (excellent).
Post Jan 10, I think we could see a relaxation in wintry prospects.
Those are my thoughts. As always, any long range forecasts / ideas are no better than an educated best guess.
One last thing: every single winter storm / every single cold pattern that has come to fruition has 'faced' mounds of doubters and haters on weather boards and in the cyber world. That's just the way it is. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't
You know it’s winter when the GFS is back to dropping week long shortwaves into the southwest. It’s just an embarrassment of a model.
Ultimately I think it’s going to be a bit of the blend of the two with a lean on the final outcome to the Euro/EPS. I don’t know that we ever see a true +PNA in the pattern as I suspect it will max out around neutral… between 0-.3. That’s ok though because I think the blocking will be strong enough to control the pattern for some time.