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Pattern Dazzling December

Loganelliott99 said:
It feels like the last couple years the EURO has been performing horridly. But they are both really bad imo
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I personally think oversaturation of weather resources has clouded the picture; with every storm, every pattern change, you have a breadth of Ops and Ensembles, a ton of websites to look through things, all fed through forums and twitter where people are trying to contextualize everything in real time. The truth is the models are fine, they have not degraded; I think the Euro has a slight edge and i prefer for it to be on my side in big ticket events, but the GFS is plenty useful too. GFS is the Kirk Cousins of weather models.
 
ILMRoss said:
I personally think oversaturation of weather resources has clouded the picture; with every storm, every pattern change, you have a breadth of Ops and Ensembles, a ton of websites to look through things, all fed through forums and twitter where people are trying to contextualize everything in real time. The truth is the models are fine, they have not degraded; I think the Euro has a slight edge and i prefer for it to be on my side in big ticket events, but the GFS is plenty useful too. GFS is the Kirk Cousins of weather mode
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I thought you must mean that he is over paid and under performing... then I looked up his work..i saw the Vikings paid 90 million dollars to get him, but they are 10-2 and 1st in their division. Surely we didn't pay 90 million dollars for the new GFS. IF so, we could have hired Kirk Cousins throw darts at the weather charts to come up with days 7 through16.
 
See if the op can keep this inside Day 10 now.

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ILMRoss said:
I personally think oversaturation of weather resources has clouded the picture; with every storm, every pattern change, you have a breadth of Ops and Ensembles, a ton of websites to look through things, all fed through forums and twitter where people are trying to contextualize everything in real time. The truth is the models are fine, they have not degraded; I think the Euro has a slight edge and i prefer for it to be on my side in big ticket events, but the GFS is plenty useful too. GFS is the Kirk Cousins of weather models.
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By and large, I agree with virtually everything you said. Instant access to data, which is instantaneously filtered through ignorance or bias, is responsible for a large portion of the overall dissatisfaction. Sometimes I think it was more fun to just look at the 5 day forecast and watch for Day 5 to get cold. That said, a few years ago, before they made the change to the Euro, it seemed to be more stable/reliable in the mid to extended range. I mean nothing is, really. But it feels like it didn't bounce nearly as much. I know it scores the best, but the eye test is unsatisfying.
 
EPS mean basically has what we are looking for post Dec 15th. 2 high pressure cold surges into E Asia (+EAsia Mtn Torque). Pac Jet extends. Aleutian Low builds. NE Siberia low stays out of Alaska. -EPO / +PNA ridging. High pressures dropping down east of the Rockies. -NAO episode may be in its later stages but hopefully it can hang on or at least provide some weakness in that region

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CaryWx said:
Is that in advance of a pa...patt..ern change?
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It would definitely make sense. The blocking patterns of late January/February 2010 and December 2010 saw severe weather across parts of the southeast as the pattern switched
 
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