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Pattern Dazzling December

This is a very ugly map lol
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Loganelliott99 said:
I truly thought I posted in whamby thread. You know if it showed record cold and snow it would be posted no Matter what the time stamp was lol


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It's kind of hard to worry too much about the LR GFS this year. We honestly don't know what we've got there, in terms of usefulness. Word is, it's not very good out in time. I know that's not really news, but that was called out specifically wrt this new version. We've already seen its propensity for bouncing around.

Looking at the Euro op and its ensembles and the Canadian ensembles is probably the right way to go. If they continue to stiff arm the pattern change or undo it altogether, then it will be time to worry.
 
Rain Cold said:
It's kind of hard to worry too much about the LR GFS this year. We honestly don't know what we've got there, in terms of usefulness. Word is, it's not very good out in time. I know that's not really news, but that was called out specifically wrt this new version. We've already seen its propensity for bouncing around.

Looking at the Euro op and its ensembles and the Canadian ensembles is probably the right way to go. If they continue to stiff arm the pattern change or undo it altogether, then it will be time to worry.
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I absolutely agree with you


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Can someone tell me over the past, let’s say 5-10 years, which model has been more consistent with patterns and winter storms? I’m just curious as to how often the euro caves to the gfs and vice versa.
 
Stevo24 said:
Can someone tell me over the past, let’s say 5-10 years, which model has been more consistent with patterns and winter storms? I’m just curious as to how often the euro caves to the gfs and vice versa.
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It feels like the last couple years the EURO has been performing horridly. But they are both really bad imo
 
Stevo24 said:
Can someone tell me over the past, let’s say 5-10 years, which model has been more consistent with patterns and winter storms? I’m just curious as to how often the euro caves to the gfs and vice versa.
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The Euro used to be regarded as Dr. No, Killer of GFS dreams. Not so much anymore.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
It feels like the last couple years the EURO has been performing horridly. But they are both really bad imo
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The Euro has had the best verification scores by a wide margin, but you’re right that it has probably had more misses the last couple years than what we’re accustomed to. One thing that I remember Grit saying last week is that the Euro has historically performed better in periods of high latitude blocking. I looked back at some of the periods in past years that had similar blocking to what we are seeing develop and the Euro did indeed do very well. A couple storms that I noticed it latched onto nearly 10 days out were 1/28-29/2010, 12/25-26/2010, and 2/12-13/2014.
 
Chazwin said:
The Euro has had the best verification scores by a wide margin, but you’re right that it has probably had more misses the last couple years than what we’re accustomed to. One thing that I remember Grit saying last week is that the Euro has historically performed better in periods of high latitude blocking. I looked back at some of the periods in past years that had similar blocking to what we are seeing develop and the Euro did indeed do very well. A couple storms that I noticed it latched onto nearly 10 days out were 1/28-29/2010, 12/25-26/2010, and 2/12-13/2014.
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So basically we really have no clue lol could be warm could be cold.
 
jeremyt said:
How much is the area in the Atlantic throwing off the models?
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That's a great question. It may be having a downstream effect, but I'm not sure it's the main problem - I think it's just the poor resolution of the GEFS beyond truncation. Look at how much more poorly resolved the SLP field is everywhere at 192 and beyond. It's the reason why we see these dramatic changes at this time interval so often.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_fh180_trend.gif
 
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