Pattern Dazzling December

[GaStorm]

The AO is really negative near mid month which should help dump some cold air in the deep south. A strong -AO usually suppresses storm tracks so something to watch on future runs.

 

[CaryWx]

Isn't the euro predicting the PNA to go neutral/slight positive after mid-month

 

[NCSNOW]

Hope it happens again

Not me. Over a week without power. Ruined the timber. Over inch ice accreation

 

[Stevo24]

Isn't the euro predicting the PNA to go neutral/slight positive after mid-month

Ask Logan he is a PNA genius. ?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Isn't the euro predicting the PNA to go neutral/slight positive after mid-month

Yes. The big question is if we will still have a solid -AO and -NAO


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[griteater]

Isn't the euro predicting the PNA to go neutral/slight positive after mid-month

Latest PNA and EPO charts from EPS

 

[starsfan68]

Yes. The big question is if we will still have a solid -AO and -NAO


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AO is negative NAO is negative

 

[HKY1994]

This weekend has been great for model watching. Improvement on almost every cycle. Buckle up fellas! If energy gets trapped under the block it’s gonna get interesting quickly. Gfs extended control run also had the same storm as the op gfs.

On the control run the storm hits between Friday and Saturday 17th/18th

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[LukeBarrette]

What a one run change from the CMC, possible table setter?

 

[LukeBarrette]

There is absolutely no way this changes that much in one run haha

 

[Brick Tamland]

This weekend has been great for model watching. Improvement on almost every cycle. Buckle up fellas! If energy gets trapped under the block it’s gonna get interesting quickly. Gfs extended control run also had the same storm as the op gfs.

On the control run the storm hits between Friday and Saturday 17th/18th

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Models have been hinting at something the second half of the month for a while, too. I think there is certainly a lot of noise that it's a legit chance we see a winter storm around this time.

 

[Brick Tamland]

WxSouth's thoughts.

The last two posts were about the frequent rains coming and those 2 cold shots, all of which is going as scheduled. Hope you like rain...some "La Nina" huh? We actually have a good tap to the Baja now, similar to El Nino Winters, and a lot of rain coming to the Southeast and Tennessee Valley this upcoming week. And then, all eyes turn to a MEGA block pattern.
That extreme block, the biggest in many years, is what I've been alerting my clients to for a couple of weeks now. When Greenland Blocks like this form between December to early March, it's almost always a guarantee of Winter precip hitting the ground shortly thereafter--and pretty far south. Each one is different (Does Dallas and Atlanta get in? Nashville and Raleigh, Norfolk? ) Some do, but not all of course, in the same storm, in rare cases a widespread biggie happens though..., but the point is, I see a definite, distinct turn toward Winter like Weather by Mid December and beyond. Models have a tough time adjusting the wavelengths and paths of storms when huge blocks like this show up, so if you're a model watcher--expect volatile run to run changes. But in time they must bend to fit the driver of the pattern, which is this gigantic monster of a long lasting block.....the best in a few years. Specifics will be ironed out in time on my blog site for members. Might want to ask Santa for some Winter Gear this year in some spots down South....I think eventually they'll be useful....if not on this particular round of blocking, then on the one likely in January or February.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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There is absolutely no way this changes that much in one run haha

Minor run to run change. Mostly noise. ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

00z GFS jumped so far north @Tarheel1 is now dealing with kidney beans ? ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If you’ve been watching the threads and understanding the things being shared you should come to expect these type of run to run changes. These shouldn’t surprise you and honestly shouldn’t worry you about this pattern. I still feel great about this pattern. December 10-20. Late December magic.

 

[LukeBarrette]

If you’ve been watching the threads and understanding the things being shared you should come to expect these type of run to run changes. These shouldn’t surprise you and honestly shouldn’t worry you about this pattern. I still feel great about this pattern. December 10-20. Late December magic.

Oh I get it I just love posting them because they are hilarious. I’ll do it a little less from now on

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If you’ve been watching the threads and understanding the things being shared you should come to expect these type of run to run changes. These shouldn’t surprise you and honestly shouldn’t worry you about this pattern. I still feel great about this pattern. December 10-20. Late December magic.

What GFS is showing is actually what you would expect if we’re hoping for a real pattern shift. That line is nasty around 240hr. Big washout then moderation on the tail end. Bring it ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Oh I get it I just love posting them because they are hilarious. I’ll do it a little less from now on

Hey you do you .. I’m just trying to reassure anyone that this is expected and not to worry too much about run to run variability. Gfs is a clown model that got a downgrade right before our winter season. I don’t really want to trust it at all past hour 100 lol

 

[dsaur]

I mean all of the above observations are cool, but the GEFS has some very interesting members around 252 hrs. I like #16.

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You and I might see something out of that even if it stopped right there, lol.

 

[SimeonNC]