Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Now the euro is trying to bring the CAD storm back for next week.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Meh let’s see how the EPS is
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iGRXY
Member
EURO at the end of its run. Looked to be heading towards something frozen
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
- Top map; inch that H up to about a 1032, 1033 and anchor it in place
-Bottom map; that's the monkey in wrench there for most
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
12z EPS is still decent but not as cold as 0z
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SWVAwxfan
Member
Damn. Lights out if that verifies for SW VA
severestorm
Member
lol this is the tops CIPS analog for next week's system
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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Man we are always in the thick of it
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not bad for Christmas morning. I would love if the west could torch for Christmas
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I’m back and just looked at the EPS and I can’t unsee it…. Monster Cutoff ridge north of Alaska unleashing some of the coldest air possible into NA, absolutely fantastic run 
Where does it go from there.
What’s the timeframe for NE Georgia and Upstate SC to start focusing in on having a chance at some winter weather? Asking those of you who really understand what’s going on. Will it be end of December or more likely January?
Somebody probably already shared this but the end of the Canadian was about to be a ? party
Looks like 2-4 C below normal across the SE. It's better than warm. I don't see anything at H5 to make me think it's going to drive the really cold air farther south.
The Euro op took a step back. The top of ridge out west rolled over, which, as expected, drives the trough axis back west. It is becoming clear that we're going to be fighting this for a long time. Sigh.
I do not see a step back at all tbh we don’t want that really cold air diving south or we’re going to get cold and dry. This is a perfect set up to have the cold air close enough to get winter weather but far enough away to get a decent storm track.
That’s a steep ridge extending into and well north of AK. If we can shift that thing east a bit and keep it extended we could drive some vodka cold into the eastern half of NA.
In the short term, I agree with you. In the D10 time frame, I don't want to already be just on the edge of the cold air.
Hypsometric
Member
There is no way anything is clear right now if you actually look at the evolution. The precise track of the first system and potential interaction with the tpv piece diving south is going to make a world of difference for where we sit. The ICON and UKMET would be very favorable but we will just have to see how it all unfolds.
Edit: I’m in no way saying you won’t be correct, I just don’t see where it’s clear or even tilting one way or the other yet. It certainly could, but I hope it doesn’t.
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We keep seeing it shown a bit too far west and rolling over. I like the concept of it, but it needs to get and remain better positioned and not just for a run or two.
If this is indeed another Niña year all we really want is a transient +PNA coupled with an active northern stream. We can usually sneak some quiet energy underneath a tall pac ridge to provide the fireworks.
NCSNOW
Member
Gonna have to wait 1 more model cycle before the nam and rgem get the table setter storm in their range. Right now Euro is coldest at surface here. Literally 33 to 34 degree rain. GFS op is really useless, back n forth, all over place.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The very end of the 18Z NAM run looked like it would be pretty cold too, but extrapolating the NAM is dangerous.
These run to run changes are straight up insane. This looks like a day 8-10 run to run change not a day 4-5 run to run change 
I personally think there is a chance of something in the 18-22nd timeframe. I’m basing that on ensemble guidance some, but especially on the teleconnections being favorable for a southeast winter storm
The GFS is ass 
iGRXY
Member
GFS is a useless model. Idc if it shows a snowstorm. Don’t hold your breath. It’s pitiful how much this thing Changes every run and that’s in the medium range
iGRXY
Member
CAD for days
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Fwiw the 12Z CFS was MUCH better
Looking for someone way more versed than me. If there is an Alaskan ridge present, why is the GFS so flat or zonal through the midwest to the east on the 18z? Maybe im missing something.
WXinCanton
Member
Very Very wet through 200 on the 18z for N GA N AL 
AJ1013
Member
81/67 today here with wall to wall sunshine. Dews around 60F.
AJ1013
Member
TWC says 44F and rain when I land in Tucson early afternoon Monday. Colder per models. Gonna be a little bit of a shock to the system after endless 70’s/80’s and sunshine here.
iGRXY
Member
GFS is stank
I think it’s what that cranky guy rain cold was talking about earlier. We like to see those higher heights through AK but the orientation is less than ideal. It extends diagonal out into the pacific instead of vertical up and down the west coast causing troughs to eject down into the west coast resulting in an unfavorable PNA. It’s a strange pattern. Something’s gonna give here soon on the modeling. I don’t think these things can all exist together unless they are only transient.
The EPO ridge up into Alaska has to be oriented right to dump the cold south and east. On the 18z is positive tilted and dumping in the west. The EPO is known to flex the southeast ridge. We either freeze or fail with it. The 18z shows how we can fail.
Thank you both for the replies, I always thought that ridging/warmer Alaska meant cooler in the east but to see the zonal flow through me off, still got a lot to learn I guess.
I mean it’s not nothing. A couple ingredients on the table this run 
A lot of times it does. It may this time as well. But really all it guarantees is cold will come to the lower 48 somewhere.