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Pattern Dazzling December

James spann not considering the GFS
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No one will ever pass the January 8th 1973 ice storm in Atlanta,,,It was a very compact isolated event basically right over the core of metro Atlanta,,,2 weeks without power,
 
SD said:
Not impossible then we are waiting for a turn to cold around new years. There are some not so subtle similarities to last December in over all evolution right now
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Agreed luckily the gfs is so useless not even the CPC aren’t even regarding it anymore.. and they know a heck of a lot more than anyone here lol
 
SD said:
We do really need the cutoff along the west coast to rex with the ridge or even retrograde under it and back toward AK. If it doesn't its likely to help entice the pv west and we end up with an ugly pattern. We need more 12z icon and less 18z gfs
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We also need more 12z ICON than 18z ICON. It appears there is a crucial period (seen in the loop) where energy moving around the Pacific ridge either consolidates with our big low that sets the Atlantic OR buckles the western ridge by digging southwest under the Pacific ridge and sets up a Rex block and wrecks the Pacific pattern.

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To get where we want to go, this may be the first crucial hurdle we have to clear (probably won't be the last).
 
AJ1013 said:
67F low with clear skies here
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think it’s what that cranky guy rain cold was talking about earlier. We like to see those higher heights through AK but the orientation is less than ideal. It extends diagonal out into the pacific instead of vertical up and down the west coast causing troughs to eject down into the west coast resulting in an unfavorable PNA. It’s a strange pattern. Something’s gonna give here soon on the modeling. I don’t think these things can all exist together unless they are only transient.
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What you’re saying is the angle of the cold is wrong? ?
TW
 
The GFS has been having 40 degree temperature swings imby from run to run since modeling started seeing the block. There's a reason why no actual forecaster is using it in the long range right now. It mishandles the beginning of its evolution and that's throwing the long range further and further off the deeper into the run you go.
 
Hypsometric said:
We also need more 12z ICON than 18z ICON. It appears there is a crucial period (seen in the loop) where energy moving around the Pacific ridge either consolidates with our big low that sets the Atlantic OR buckles the western ridge by digging southwest under the Pacific ridge and sets up a Rex block and wrecks the Pacific pattern.

View attachment 125457

To get where we want to go, this may be the first crucial hurdle we have to clear (probably won't be the last).
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You could have let me live happy and not shown the 18z Icon, I didn't look at it earlier now i feel like thishurdle-fail.gif
 
SD said:
You could have let me live happy and not shown the 18z Icon, I didn't look at it earlier now i feel like thisView attachment 125458
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Well since I'm such a nice guy, I'll share that the 18z Euro (out to 90) is much further east with the energy I was talking about than the 18z GFS AND the upper low off the western US coast is also further west.

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CaryWx said:
You will if you follow the GFS lately
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Well it is a bit insane, one run has a low of 16 the next run, is a low of 45, same night????

The latest run through the 26th is a low of 38 and a high of 73 for ATL...LMAO, WTF? Etc////,...
 
Call me once we have some consistency of cross polar flow inside 168hrs on the global ensembles, and a mechanism to lock a cyclone around the Bay of Fundy on said ensembles. Until then, 40N is favored with boarder-line PAC washed cold, vs amplitude south enough to matter. Current ? is west, let alone south.
 
I meant to share this with everyone here yesterday, but couldn't find the time to put the finishing touches on it.

I gave the December 8-10 2018 snowfall map I made a few years ago a much needed facelift. Really cool to see the mesoscale banding features on here. The most obvious one goes from northern Durham Co & the northern shore of Falls Lake to Wake Forest, then Wilson & Greenville, basically along US HWY 264 east of Raleigh. You can also see another one from about Elkin (Surry Co.) to Yadkinville & Mocksville, just west of the Triad.

December 8-10 2018 NC Snowmap Reanalyzed.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
I meant to share this with everyone here yesterday, but couldn't find the time to put the finishing touches on it.

I gave the December 8-10 2018 snowfall map I made a few years ago a much needed facelift. Really cool to see the mesoscale banding features on here. The most obvious one goes from northern Durham Co & the northern shore of Falls Lake to Wake Forest, then Wilson & Greenville, basically along US HWY 264 east of Raleigh. You can also see another one from about Elkin (Surry Co.) to Yadkinville & Mocksville, just west of the Triad.

View attachment 125465
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That's one heck of a gradient across Wake, even by Wake standards lol.
 
Hypsometric said:
That's one heck of a gradient across Wake, even by Wake standards lol.
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I personally don't recall a storm with a bigger gradient across Wake Co. Jan 1940 probably comes the closest in my mind prior to Dec 2018, but it didn't seem to have much of one across southern Wake. Big gradient between downtown Raleigh & near the airport. The northern edge of the sleet in this storm made it to about RDU/Morrisvile - Falls Lake - Louisburg. South of that, across south-central Wake to the coastal Plain, this storm was apparently primarily sleet (makes sense w/ how strong the coastal low was in reanalysis).

This is definitely another map that could use a facelift (honestly most of them could).


January 23-24 1940 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I personally don't recall a storm with a bigger gradient across Wake Co. Jan 1940 probably comes the closest in my mind prior to Dec 2018, but it didn't seem to have much of one across southern Wake. Big gradient between downtown Raleigh & near the airport. The northern edge of the sleet in this storm made it to about RDU/Morrisvile - Falls Lake - Louisburg. South of that, across south-central Wake to the coastal Plain, this storm was apparently primarily sleet (makes sense w/ how strong the coastal low was in reanalysis).

This is definitely another map that could use a facelift (honestly most of them could).


View attachment 125468
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re: 2018 storm. Wake county? Heck, how about Cary by itself. I was in the 4"accumation zone and could hop in my car for <10mins and see 8" of snow on the ground.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I meant to share this with everyone here yesterday, but couldn't find the time to put the finishing touches on it.

I gave the December 8-10 2018 snowfall map I made a few years ago a much needed facelift. Really cool to see the mesoscale banding features on here. The most obvious one goes from northern Durham Co & the northern shore of Falls Lake to Wake Forest, then Wilson & Greenville, basically along US HWY 264 east of Raleigh. You can also see another one from about Elkin (Surry Co.) to Yadkinville & Mocksville, just west of the Triad.

View attachment 125465
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Also the French broad River valley sticks out like a sore thumb from Madison county down into Greater Asheville. When I was in school for 4 years at UNCA that was brutal several times. Warm air flooding down the valley.
 
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