Pattern Dazzling December

[LukeBarrette]

Real reason things looked great on that run is because of an improved pacific

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Day 6 we’re already undercutting energy ? We’re finally going places

 

[LukeBarrette]

Real reason things looked great on that run is because of an improved pacific

Ridge builds much farther west which allows cold and storm chances to come farther southeast. Love seeing this, but it’s just one run…

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Gatlinburg trip is a go

 

[starsfan68]

Yeah that exact solution will probably never happen, but that is right at the beginning of the timeframe I think we might have potential. -AO holding strong, intensity of the -NAO relaxes slightly, PNA just about neutral, and the MJO in a good position. I know Fro likes this time frame as well.

PNA is going down slightly.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The trend around day 5-7 has been less southeast ridge and more pacific polar source waves to pass and undercut the Atlantic block which effectively kickstarts the progression and step down process of the pattern

 

[Chazwin]

PNA is going down slightly.

The next several days yes, which coincides with the torch this week,but the teleconnection updates on weather.gov have been very consistent on moving the PNA very close to neutral by the 15th. After that it’s showing signs of going slightly positive.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gatlinburg trip is a go View attachment 124797

Is it time to bring up soil temps?

 

[starsfan68]

The next several days yes, which coincides with the torch this week,but the teleconnection updates on weather.gov have been very consistent on moving the PNA very close to neutral by the 15th. After that it’s showing signs of going slightly positive.

I live in Texas

 

[J.C.]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Pacific did show flashes of better progressions vs past few days which is interesting per webbers new product put out earlier today showing there was much less confidence in the pacific pattern which in turn gives you wild swings in model output ..as you can see with the most recent model runs how much it impacts our weather. What it was confident about was that Greenland block which is a great piece to have locked in right now.

 

[Hypsometric]

The trend around day 5-7 has been less southeast ridge and more pacific polar source waves to pass and undercut the Atlantic block which effectively kickstarts the progression and step down process of the pattern View attachment 124798View attachment 124799

Absolutely. If we can keep this trend of strengthening the block and the strength of the undercutting waves, we may get somewhere sooner than later...nevertheless, great signs to at least see a real wintery pattern by the week of Christmas if we can just hold the line. Last time I said that, everything went to crap afterwards lol.

 

[Chazwin]

Pacific did show flashes of better progressions vs past few days which is interesting per webbers new product put out earlier today showing there was much less confidence in the pacific pattern which in turn gives you wild swings in model output ..as you can see with the most recent model runs how much it impacts our weather. What it was confident about was that Greenland block which is a great piece to have locked in right now.

It’s also important to point that some of the improvement in the Pacific was a result of the blocking beginning to back up the flow.

 

[starsfan68]

It’s also important to point that some of the improvement in the Pacific was a result of the blocking beginning to back up the flow.

I hope it continues to improve in the next coming days.

 

[Itryatgolf]

I know it may come later, but would like to see a +EAMT and really shake thing up

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Meh the GEFS is not similar to the GFS at all

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[weatherfide]

I mean all of the above observations are cool, but the GEFS has some very interesting members around 252 hrs. I like #16.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I have my reservations about this but I love model watching so I won’t be a doom and gloomer

 

[griteater]

I have my reservations about this but I love model watching so I won’t be a doom and gloomer

Never seen anyone explicitly state it that way, but I'm with you, "I love model watching"

Here is yesterday's happy hour GEFS vs today's at day 11-12. Better pattern across the CONUS, better block, more ridging in NW Asia (breeding ground for retrograding blocks and good location for weakening the Strat PV). Not quite where we need to be in the Aleutians / Alaska.

Overall, the GFS has been trending toward the CMC and Euro over the past day or so with respect to moving Pac waves east up under the block out in time.

 

[griteater]

Why does it gotta be hour 312 that’s so beautiful. Pacific looks great with a extended pacific jet and a ridge above AK View attachment 124790View attachment 124791

The EPS continues to progress nicely. Sfc charts here on first loop for days 6 to 15 on the EPS show high pressure and cold surge moving into E Asia (adding +EAsia Mtn Torque and helps to excite the Maritime Continent > West Pacific MJO related convection)...with associated Pac jet extension as you mentioned. 2nd map is the Euro Control run showing the surge in the Pac Jet days 7 to 15