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Pattern Dazzling December

The GFS is much wetter for midweek than it had been. Looks like just rain for us and a lot, but icy in the CAD area of VA. Timing is also slower, probably because a secondary low forms over the southeast.
 
With this type of setup, some folks (primarily west of the mountains, upslope, and maybe just south --> Ga??) may do well.

I inherited a house up in Boone. We're going to start remodeling it. Plan to use it for vacations and maybe some snow chasing events.

GFS for next weekend:

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Its smoothed out ensemble means at day 7-12…. Of course it’s not gonna be very very cold yet, low-mid 40s at this lead is pretty impressive. Sheesh the expectations are crazy. It’s the SE US. Lmao
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Looks about like a perfect forecast for the Christmas season. Especially with what we’ve dealt with the past few years.
 
To be honest, the GFS has been so utterly inconsistent for quite a while now, that I have taken it out of my modelling paradigm. GEFS is a little better so I still read it but rely more on the CMC and EPS with a little ICON thrown in occasionally. The physics of that model are obviously off and we have spent billions and billions of dollars on it and it is still largely worthless
 
EmersonGA said:
Looks about like a perfect forecast for the Christmas season. Especially with what we’ve dealt with the past few years.
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Last Christmas was 70 with some twisters mixed in here. The Christmas before that had a high of like 25-28 degrees. Maybe it’s back to bone chilling cold this Christmas! I hope so because 70 degrees and hiding in the bathroom under the stairwell as tornado warnings blare out from my phone just doesn’t scream Christmas time to me.
 
At 240 on the Canadian the surface temps were mid to upper teens. Even adding some for the cold bias means mid 20’s. 925s and 850s are cold enough, 700 is where the marginal air is but it’s right at freezing. Still a snow signal if the run continued. 540 line is just a thickness indicator for where snow has better than average to form
 
iGRXY said:
At 240 on the Canadian the surface temps were mid to upper teens. Even adding some for the cold bias means mid 20’s. 925s and 850s are cold enough, 700 is where the marginal air is but it’s right at freezing. Still a snow signal if the run continued. 540 line is just a thickness indicator for where snow has better than average to form
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Thanks. I thought the 540 line and 850s correlated more tightly.
 
olhausen said:
Last Christmas was 70 with some twisters mixed in here. The Christmas before that had a high of like 25-28 degrees. Maybe it’s back to bone chilling cold this Christmas! I hope so because 70 degrees and hiding in the bathroom under the stairwell as tornado warnings blare out from my phone just doesn’t scream Christmas time to me.
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Same here last year. We live West of Nashville. It tore our Gutters and downspouts off the back of our house. Then went down Hwy 70 towards Nashville tearing up jack and one lady died.
 
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