Who cares if there is no wintry precip temps mean nothing. It was obvious weeks ago that cold was coming and even said would be below normal most likely by end of month. If no wintry precip then just a waste.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
GFS generally always caves to Euro during the winter. If Euro not on board I never get excited
CMCE more active then last run, looks like a little more coastal signal 
Worth noting the airmass is so cold, even discounting the cold bias on the CMCE, wintry precip could be pretty far south. Like gulf coast south, if we do indeed get something to go our way
Next frame 
Pilotwx
Member
I know we all are hoping for snow , but when we are all checking out the wind forecast , things have really taken a turn.
It’s still pretty weak, but best run since 00z 2 days ago. it’s better than nothing. If something is gonna produce, it’s gonna be this. Having Hope with a system that has cold air in place is better then having hope in a system that could easily go bad due to bad temps, bad H5, etc
With this type of cold in place, we really don’t need a strong wave to get a solid, widespread overrunning event going, and that’s a type of event that most models won’t pick up well on until 4 or 5 days out
I’ll pay more attention to the wind forecast when we’re get into short range models territory. Globals always overdue wind by a lot
Yep won’t be one of those we track 200+ hrs out with clown maps, we will just see the pieces there and hope things trend better as we get within a few days.
and if models do start picking up on something like that, you can always expect precip to much more expansive to the north than what is shown
Yep and honestly we win with these setups more than the big dogs 7-10 days out
Honestly looking at both GFS and CMC as well as the GEFS; I wouldn’t be surprised if that is where we trend. Even a light overrunning event would bring great joy or annoyance. (1/28/14)
We have 2 options. Either speed up the vortex into eastern/SE Canada, and slow the southern stream wave, so you can dig the SS/pacific wave effectively and get some overrunning. or the more iffier way, get the TPV due north of the GLs, flex the WAR, get a southern stream wave to align with a extension/piece of energy from the TPV and phase something up. I like the 1st option better. in between sucks
To your point, KATL probably finishes at +1-3 and the Gulf states west stand no chance of being below normal. 10-12F above average halfway through December is ridiculous and insurmountable.
The biggest problem with option 2 is that if the WAR flexes you have a better chance of pushing a warm nose into the cold air mass and you see a what would be a nice little snow event turn into a sleet fest or ice storm. Hopefully we can trend to something more like February 2010 and get nice widespread snowfall across the south
Looks like the Euro may throw us a bone around the 27th.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Is the cold air still going to be there? I noticed a quick moderation in temps.