Models are struggling with the energy left over, whether it gets left in western Canada, or merged into the pacific trough, we need a tall western ridge for a digging and successful system. Until models resolve that feature with it either it getting stuck in W can, or retrograding back into the Aleutian low, then it’s a 50/50 shot and a game atp
Our shortwave slows down, but so does the big vortex. Can’t win.
Then again, it may be close for coastal NC on this run.
Definitely gains a lot more separation in the latest frames than earlier. Would be a heck of a thing to keep that trend going.
It's the way the first storm goes that's really messing up how our overall chances are. It seriously would be best if this first system didn't cut as much because what happens is it slows down and gets in the way of the next wave, keeping it way too positive coming in to ever do anything. Had it swept in and kept cold vs lagged the cold behind it and cut we'd be having better chances. Unfortunately neither are going to be big for anyone outside of western areas of the south like Oklahoma. Best that this will do is maybe some mountain snow showers and light flurries outside is what I'd bet most on.
still think there's a lot of room for amplification seeing that the s/w is still pretty positively tilted- i thought the ridge out west looked much better
The ensembles solutions seem to show that with improvements and a handful of runs that may depict that scenario
I will take this is the EURO come around!
Not even entertaining it until the Euro gets on board. GFS has been horrible.
