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Pattern Dazzling December

I’ve just got a feeling we are going to trend to some type of overrunning event within the next 2-3 days. Those types of storms generally don’t even begin to start showing up until you’re in the medium range and honestly the short range. As with the first storm you’re going to see some type of NW trend , but it won’t be as pronounce with the type of cold coming out of Canada. What I’m interested in is with -NAO’s we typically get some type of 50/50 low form. I expect that to happen but it depends on how strong it is. And again, if we do trend to overrunning you can expect a much better NW expansion of precip and FGEN front end banding.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Globals struggle to bring moisture farther north while the NAMs have stronger warm air advection and FGEN and get stuff going further north. Probably excessive but the chance of a floodlight flake event is there
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We need the MMFS more than ever! .. if after all the Ls we’ve taken we get a quick thump on this initial wave that turns into a 34 degree rain… you know what I’ll just take it lmao
 
The short range guidance and even globals do hint at a period of time where if precip is falling you can crash the column enough in central NC where FGEN forcing can create a thump of sorts. I’m not getting my hopes up but if we follow trends of past in terms of precip being more expansive north and west of the low. Plus usually there is more precip with FGEN forcing than models usually pick up. Could be grasping at straws but if we only have straws to grasp might as well look wherever we can. 1671397816179.gif1671397757468.gif
 
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In terms of the big system coming please root for me to perhaps score on some CAD onset snow.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
The short range guidance and even globals do hint at a period of time where if precip is falling you can crash the column enough in central NC where FGEN forcing can create a thump of sorts. I’m not getting my hopes up but if we follow trends of past in terms of precip being more expansive north and west of the low. Plus usually there is more precip with FGEN forcing than models usually pick up. Could be grasping at straws but if we only have straws to grasp might as well look wherever we can. View attachment 127476View attachment 127475
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If there is a legitimate chance of this happening, I would expect to start showing on the HRRR as it first comes into range. The model does great FGEN forcing
 
Tuesday storm needs its own thread. It's legit. Really all we need is a little stronger forcing and expansive precip shield to the north, and these weak gulf lows usually have that. I'm all in
 
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