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Pattern Dazzling December

Looking at the 0z CMC ensemble, looks like a few members with a gulf/SE coastal wave around the 27th or day 9
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What's it gonna take to get upstate involved this weekend?

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3km NAM is showing potential too. High is in perfect position for CAD.. if dew points verify a little lower than progged and we get enough precip this could turn in to a decent event. Especially for the Southern escarpment with some elevation(1500-2000ft). Screen Shot 2022-12-18 at 9.52.06 AM.png
 
Just looking for the key the differences from the last NAM run and it appears it's a decent shift north with the precip shield Tuesday afternoon that's allowing places in to wetbulb below freezing.

Another similar sized shift north with the precip and we'd be cooking with grease. The globals trended north with the precip shield overnight as well, they just a little too warm at the surface for freezing rain,(but with established CAD setup they may be too warm).
 
Spc mentioning a low severe threat right now late this week for eastern areas (most likely NC/SC/GA)

Looks more likely that we're gonna see some thunderstorms & severe weather ahead of the front than snow/ice behind it on Thu-Fri.
What are your thoughts about getting the 2nd system to materialize?
 
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