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Pattern Dazzling December

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Much colder air spilling into the US. It'll be the literal definition of hell if we get the GFS to trend worse at 0z
 
I'm not sure of the progressive bias since the FV3 core update; but one has to wonder if the GFS is doing it's silly thing of being too fast with the Northern Branch again.
 
Another big point. The pieces we need to sample are not getting any or very little observational data to put into these models. This weekend into early next week will be crucial as more of those pieces actually come onto the playing field to have more and more data be collected on them. This will impact what the models show us. Again we have not seen the final product yet. We are 6 days out. Things will change. Models are tools not the gospel. Cheers ?
 
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