SWVAwxfan
Member
Only 7 mb higher than Hurricane Charlie when it made landfall near Ft Myers FLThanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 950mb low!!!
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Also at least the future doesn’t look too terrible either! Just have to roll with the punches!
NoSnowATL
Member
I’m sure we will get plenty of monsters 10 days out again.
We are missing the sub-tropical jet, some play before and after but clearly phasing of the polar streams with robust vent setup to the north and east of wherever it occludes. Temper down the 93 strength, at this range verification likely splits the difference, not as extreme as day 7 progged.
It does though have the hallmarks of a major cyclone in the eastern half of US. All one has to do is look at what is modeled over the Bering Straight in about 48-72hrs, and work your way east splitting fine differences. Blocking in the Labrador Sea. It's a significant signal for a system and splitting differences between OH Valley, TN Valley, MA, NE, we are still a couple days out from better resolution.
Why do I find no comfort in that thought
severestorm
Member
For 5 more days lol
I'm going to be honest I just don't feel it I feel like it's either the 23rd system or nothing and it's barely standing on legs. Others have gotten bashed for saying this but with that type of cold that is cold and dry and suppression city all day long. Yes you want the cold in the South but not that kind of cold most of the time it's a marginal setup with a 50/50 banana high. I'd seriously temper expectations honestly I don't think we see a significant storm until after the first of the year which is climatology around here so that's perfectly fine.
iGRXY
Member
27th has much better odds of happening over the 23rd.
smast16
Member
12z Euro was cold, but for my locations verbatim wouldn't be colder than the November cold spell. Turning north west of the apps really kills the cold push into NC and VA.
What's causing the upper low to head north in MO? I've only seen that kind of abrupt turn when theres an SER / WAR. But absent both of those, what's the driver?
What's causing the upper low to head north in MO? I've only seen that kind of abrupt turn when theres an SER / WAR. But absent both of those, what's the driver?
EthanLovesWeather
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DT from Wxrisk talking about the importance of the 50/50 / Southeast Canada low…
I was thinking a bit more about this pattern, and to put things in perspective, not a lot has really changed.
- Wave #1 never looked great for us in the first place (We just got sucked in with the GFS)
- The cold air is still coming, and we're looking to have the coldest Christmas since 2000
- It's looking probable that many of us have a rare below average December
- Wave #2 still looks favorable from a global scale (it's 9-10 days, so the signal is not going to be extreme)
NCSNOW
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You dont have a 50/50. The HP from the block gets between it and us while storm is digging down and without confluence it just cuts.
See the 18z gfs. That little red/yellowish tail cutting it off some. That caused gfs to do apps runner. On the euro that red tail is all the way down eastern seaboard of NE,MA to NC. Only saving grace on the gfs is how it shoots a piece of the northern stream vort east north of canadian line and it tries to Make up for the 50/50 low Euro and foreign guidance keep northern vort energy consolidated as it comes down stovepipe front range of Rockies,plains.
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Yeah control run was somehow west of 12
Typical DT caving to a more favorable solution for his audience. For us in the SE two solutions work based on my experience, a TPV with confluence over southern Quebec for an undercut or a pseudo 50/50 displaced south of the benchmark position, generally its the same solution but can evolve differently for money shot. Right now our money should be on the TPV ejecting east through southern Canada. We have a GoM low at day 4-5, it's determination is still TBD. Does it fizzle, lerk, work its way slowly up the coast, regardless a coastal front should be in place along the eastern seaboard as the hammer drops.
NCSNOW
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Only hope we have is for the northern stream vort to shoot a piece due east as it comes down. Otherwise it will be Table setter storm #2. #1 was this past wednesdays 36 degree rain here. Think back about 7 days ago, when it went kapoof/cut on models and we said that would set the table for the next one (Dec 23).
SimeonNC
Member
I feel like as soon as this current storm up in the NE is gone, models will start to have a better handling of everything. Whether that leads to more wintry solutions or not remains to be unseen but I still think our current "tablesetter is mucking things up a little.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Keep in mind that the wave forecast for the 23rd is barely a energy lobe between Alaska and Russia right now.. an area that has hardly any direct obs data going into the models.
Aka "get the first storm out of the way to see what the second one will do" on your Winter Storm Fail Bingo cards.