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Pattern Dazzling December

Chazwin said:
Yes it could… and I wouldn’t be shocked to see some CAD ice In favored area east of the mountains. It’s not exactly a warm airmass ahead of this system
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Yeah, all the talk of severe is honestly weird to me considering we're running sightly below normal temps through the whole week.

Another severe event for the deep south/gulf coast could happen but up here, not really.

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jrips27 said:
Messy View attachment 127106
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Even though it’s the GFS, this solution is believable. Apps runner with a Miller B transfer to the north. CAD in place brings an ice event to NC Foothills and the escarpment and then a backside NWFS for the mountains and some mood flakes east.
 
Afternoon disco from FFC fwiw:

Run-to-run consistency, while improving, still differs by model and
between models. Weekend high pressure ridge will shift east of the
area by late Monday as wave traverses the area in near-zonal flow
aloft. Good rain chances are largely limited to middle and south
Georgia with rainfall amounts generally an inch or less and coming
to an end early Wednesday. In the wake of this mid-week event, large
long-wave trough ushers cold continental airmass into the central US
and by early Friday, both the 12Z GFS and Euro show deepening closed
cut off impacting the southeast US. The placement of the low will
greatly dictate the potential for winter precip, with the farther
south GFS showing a more favorable snow setup than the more northern
Euro. Given the wintry precip potential is at Day 7 with a
tremendous amount of uncertainty, at this time, little attention was
provided to detailed snow accumulations.

The more certain forecast concern is with the much-below-normal
temperature potential seems very likely with probabilistic guidance
suggesting 15-25 degree (or more) below normal temperatures and
single-digit wind chills by Friday.

In summary, below-normal, possible record-flirting temperatures look
likely late in the week, and while rain is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday, confidence in any winter precip after Wednesday is
extremely low. Stay tuned.
 
Chazwin said:
Even though it’s the GFS, this solution is believable. Apps runner with a Miller B transfer to the north. CAD in place brings an ice event to NC Foothills and the escarpment and then a backside NWFS for the mountains and some mood flakes east.
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Close to being big problems about 40 miles either side of a Greenville SC to MT Airy NC line, 1st due to ice and then high winds and cold. Could be 1 million plus without power in that zone if this plays out just right.
 
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