Pattern Dazzling December

[NCSNOW]

Does the NAM and RDPS suport GFS in 36 hours seperating that northern stream energy in Canada?

 

[NWMSGuy]

Atleast from the latest GEFS run, there are some nice hits for the Mid-South. Not holding my breath though.

 

[griteater]

After the Arctic cutter, 13 of the 20 CMC Ensemble members have at least one winter storm in the SE (snow or ice) in the Dec 25-28 period. That’s all I got

Here is a snippet of some cases

 

[whatalife]

I know it is the euro control and it has the 2nd system nicely suppressed.

 

[Stormsfury]

I know it is the euro control and it has the 2nd system nicely suppressed.View attachment 127084

Honestly, with so much energy flying around and models really don't have a clue which ones to key more on.

These can easily shift drastically for or against us on the next cycles...

 

[CaryWx]

I know it is the euro control and it has the 2nd system nicely suppressed.View attachment 127084

This is where it is an advantage to say---"200+ hours out and suppressed. What could go wrong?"

 

[jrips27]

Busy map

 

[Shaggy]

After the Arctic cutter, 13 of the 20 CMC Ensemble members have at least one winter storm in the SE (snow or ice) in the Dec 25-28 period. That’s all I got

Here is a snippet of some cases

View attachment 127082

Rather it be snow or nothing just like we see here

 

[BHS1975]

Rather it be snow or nothing just like we see here

Yeap go big or go home.

 

[rburrel2]

Tuesday morning still has potential for NE Ga and Upstate SC, imo. NAM thermal profiles are cold at 84hrs and sim radar looks decent. GFS also marginally conducive for snow Tuesday morning and precip shield is very close and trending better. High placement(albeit a weak high) is ideal for CAD as well.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Tuesday morning still has potential for NE Ga and Upstate SC, imo. NAM thermal profiles are cold at 84hrs and sim radar looks decent. GFS also marginally conducive for snow Tuesday morning and precip shield is very close and trending better. High placement(albeit a weak high) is ideal for CAD as well.

Latest icon run looks decent for it too

 

[rburrel2]

Also, FWIW, 18z ICON trended slightly towards the GFS with the main storm. Not anywhere near as extreme as the GFS but it definitely trended in that direction compared to the 12z run.

 

[SD]

Icon looks better over the top. Similar to last night's euro splits the difference between the far left and right looks

 

[WeatherNC]

Icon looks better over the top. Similar to last night's euro splits the difference between the far left and right looks

That’s funny because I was thinking the 12z Euro splits the difference between the 12z Canadian and GFS.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯​

 

[Shaggy]

Icon looks better over the top. Similar to last night's euro splits the difference between the far left and right looks

Icon has pulled one or two rabbits out if it's hat and certainly shouldn't be discounted entirely. Just alot of model confusion currently and with all the energy dumping into this I suspect this will continue for another few days.

 

[SD]

Personally I don't think the over amplified and left models are right and I don't think the gfs right. There should be energy drawn east under the block in Canada but I doubt it's enough for us to get a gfs like solution. The good thing is think if you still want to believe the gfs isn't backing down fully

 

[BHS1975]

Personally in don't think the over amplified and left models are right and I don't think the gfs right. There should be energy drawn east under the block in Canada but I doubt it's enough for us to get a gfs like solution. The good thing is think if you still want to believe the gfs isn't backing down fully

I'm all in on the GFS.

 

[CaryWx]

GFS standing on it's own mountain still?

 

[Chazwin]

Personally in don't think the over amplified and left models are right and I don't think the gfs right. There should be energy drawn east under the block in Canada but I doubt it's enough for us to get a gfs like solution. The good thing is think if you still want to believe the gfs isn't backing down fully

Yeah I agree with this. I’ve had a hard time believing that the low plows into the block like the Ukie has been trying to do. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up a Miller B with the low cutting up west of the Apps and the energy transfer occurring to a new low near the Delmarva peninsula

 

[jrips27]

GFS standing on it's own mountain still?

Yep I think it’s going to give it another go. Still early though