Pattern Dazzling December

[jackendrickwx]

It takes Western Carolinas from 40s-50s the night of the 22nd to highs in the 20s on the 23rd

 

[LukeBarrette]

I gotta say that this is even too extreme for reality. Won’t be anything close to this.

 

[accu35]

This image right here tells me that there’s gonna be some snow showers in the Deep South at the arrival of the front. Look in the gulf. Baby steps towards the gfs?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If you love the weather truly you won’t even be mad at this euro solution. To witness a front like that and get to experience it will something truly remarkable!

 

[whatalife]

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

It's not a lot, but a nice cold rain in east texas rigt now

 

[Arcc]

Unfortunately for us, as with the Icon and CMC, the Christmas storm is probably dead on this run. Not that is matters either way with these shifts.

 

[WXinCanton]

View attachment 127063
This image right here tells me that there’s gonna be some snow showers in the Deep South at the arrival of the front. Look in the gulf. Baby steps towards the gfs?

That's ocean effect in the Gulf pretty sure

 

[EthanLovesWeather]

We're really not in phase 5. The MJO doesn't have any effect on this pattern

How many days or weeks does it take for the MJO to have an affect on the pattern, assuming that Euro chart was right and it were to shift into phase 4 or 5 or 6 around the 22nd & 23rd?

 

[bouncycorn]

Euro doesn’t look very good if you’re wanting snow in the south/southeast during the 23rd system. This is getting into the range (120-168hr) where I’d like to see threats suppressed south so they have time to shift northwest (since they all do just about). Times ticking on this threat, but it’s not quite over yet.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 127065
I gotta say that this is even too extreme for reality. Won’t be anything close to this.

Welcome to the reality of thermal gradients in meteorology

 

[accu35]

Here’s what we didn’t have last night lol

 

[LukeBarrette]

Welcome to the reality of thermal gradients in meteorology

Oh I know just saying that there is no way there will be rain all the way up into Canada

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Oh I know just saying that there is no way there will be rain all the way up into Canada

WAA has done crazier things my friend.

 

[KyloG]

potential still there for 26th, probably gets smushed but not bad

 

[WeatherNC]

Regardless of no snow for the SE and most of the Eastern Seaboard, it’s still a monster. 850 circulation extends from James Bay in ON to south Florida, and the Central Plains to Nova Scotia. Euro honestly did not know what to do with the SLP after it occluded and decoupled from the upper levels while they were still not down maturing around 168-174hrs.

 

[LukeBarrette]

WAA has done crazier things my friend.

Personally you’re wrong. This storm will be a middle ground solution between GFS and CMC. You can berate me all you want if I’m wrong.

 

[Arcc]

potential still there for 26th, probably gets smushed but not bad

View attachment 127067

Honestly it’s not nearly as bad as I thought. Considering that the PV lobe normally trends weaker or northward with time, the threat is obviously still there in the weeds or delayed somewhat.

 

[Ollie Williams]

How many days or weeks does it take for the MJO to have an affect on the pattern, assuming that Euro chart was right and it were to shift into phase 4 or 5 or 6 around the 22nd & 23rd?

I'm by no means an expert on the MJO, but this pattern seems to be largely guided by the influence of jet extension associated with the -EAMT, and the blocking retrogression that has been ongoing since November. Once those influences run their courses, the MJO will likely take on more influence in early January.

 

[Stevo24]

After stewing on this for a little while, I am going to say the threats are still there for the 23rd timeframe as well as after Christmas. We will see winter weather from both. Mark my words.