Pattern Dazzling December

[iGRXY]

Verbatim the GFS would be an ice storm for CAD areas. GFS isn’t worth a flip with CAD so areas like the upstate and NE GA likely get big sleet and ZR with backside snow. Still the GFS digs the energy the most and even that run was furthest west compared to previous runs. You likely get something in the middle so I still think the western Carolinas north Georgia, north and eastern Alabama likely look the best for something if you blended the models. Odds are it’s ice with snow back towards the Ohio valley and apps.

 

[EthanLovesWeather]

Most of this will fall on the lighter side of the totals I put up, but here’s my thoughts View attachment 126194

How did you make this map? Thanks

 

[Chazwin]

Something of note, I think it will be interesting to watch the NAM as it starts to come into range of the different features that are at play here. I distinctly remember last January with our 2nd storm how a number of models were suppressing it way east but as features on the NAM were coming into range, it was clear that suppression was being overdone by globals. Of course here we’re dealing with something different, but it will be interesting to see how the NAM handles the energy

 

[EthanLovesWeather]

Where’s the 50/50 low when you need it? It could mean the difference of 500 miles of where the SL tracks.

 

[Rain Cold]

GFS with a nice step to the other models now.

 

[Ollie Williams]

GFS with a nice step to the other models now.

Well, then the GEFS look a step away from the other models. I’m discounting it at this point.

 

[WeatherNC]

Full read here

WPC's Extended Forecast Discussion

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

 

[Chazwin]

GFS with a nice step to the other models now.

It did, but it wouldn’t shock me to see the other globals take a step towards it now. We’re inside 7 days so the we’re inside the GFS’ complete uselessness stage. Also like I mentioned earlier, that solution actually made a decent amount of sense to me. It definitely not exactly what’s gonna happen, but something close to it or between it and the other globals is probably where it’s headed.

 

[Snowfan]

Considering how whacked up the pattern is right now I would be not surprised to see more changes.

 

[Snowfan]

Also one thing we need to watch is the OBs 500 mb heights so we can see which model is right.

 

[Chazwin]

Considering how whacked up the pattern is right now I would be not surprised to see more changes.

Yeah… that’s the thing. I mentioned earlier that right now it doesn’t appear to me that any of the models are handling things well right now. Heck the piece of energy that is supposed to touch of the 22-23rd storm is near the dateline.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If you’re feeling down about the models .. try stepping away for 24-48 hours and when you come back things could be totally different.

 

[SD]

If you’re feeling down about the models .. try stepping away for 24-48 hours and when you come back things could be totally different.

Or just think you could be part of the staff

 

[Snowlove33]

Or just think you could be part of the staff

@SD how do you become a part of the staff and what are the qualifications to joining?

 

[bouncycorn]

New MMFS run. Still showing an intense low to our north. 979.5mb!

 

[SD]

@SD how do you become a part of the staff and what are the qualifications to joining?

Birth certificate, proof of insurance, 3 written recommendations, DiSC assessment, $250 application fee

 

[WeatherNC]

New MMFS run. Still showing an intense low to our north. 979.5mb!

It’s probably not done at the surface let alone upper levels given what was about to stream in just north of Lake Superior and another streamer to the west. Very similar to the EC, kudos on the run, verbatim and extrapolating a bit the MMFS would fully mature around Buffalo, maybe western PA. Sucks for many but not all on this board. I’m somewhat in chase mode as the timing works out about perfect.

Would it be possible to increase the pressure scale (-) for subsequent runs so we can better resolve the actual track and strength?

 

[bouncycorn]

It’s probably not done at the surface let alone upper levels given what was about to stream in just north of Lake Superior and another streamer to the west. Very similar to the EC, kudos on the run, verbatim and extrapolating a bit the MMFS would fully mature around Buffalo, maybe western PA. Sucks for many but not all on this board. I’m somewhat in chase mode as the timing works out about perfect.

Would it be possible to increase the pressure scale (-) for subsequent runs so we can better resolve the actual track and strength?

Thanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 950mb low!!!

 

[JHS]

Thanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 969mb!

This would be approaching superstorm 93 strength if it verified. It would still be a big event even if this is off by 20mb. It's obvious something big is coming up for much of the country east of the rockies.

 

[WeatherNC]

Thanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 969mb!

Thank you, it's still hard to dial in the actual SLP based on color scale but I assume around Culpepper VA, similar to the 18z GFS. Apologize if already shared but can you link any details/specs on documentation running in house. My assumption is mesoscale with some type of extension, you can take the reply to Whamby don't want to add clutter here.