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Pattern Dazzling December

Euro has 1st storm: Its just a Nice Cold Rain unfortunately: Wheres a 50/50 lp when you need it

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0DFA18C2-E84D-4030-9887-CA1B180B5A54.jpegB1BBC904-160D-4168-8AB3-F59005A1BA48.jpegSomething that should be noted is that the MJO is going to be making a run for phase 4 & 5 around the 23rd. The precipitation correlation with that should support a strong, very far inland runner, just like the Canadian and UKMET are indicating. Phase 8 or 1 would have been very much more supportive of the kind of storm the GFS has been spitting out.
 
KyloG said:
Maybe if the Euro/CMC is right then that bodes well for the 12/26 potential...no way we miss both...right

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No there is a way. This is why I tried to let people know that even in the best patterns we can miss. Because we live in the south and no matter how you slice it it’s hard to get it to snow down here. I still like the second opportunity but anyone who is expecting major winter storms needs to temper expectations so they don’t get their heart broken.
 
EthanLovesWeather said:
View attachment 127056View attachment 127057Something that should be noted is that the MJO is going to be making a run for phase 4 & 5 around the 23rd. The precipitation correlation with that should support a strong, very far inland runner, just like the Canadian and UKMET are indicating. Phase 8 or 1 would have been very much more supportive of the kind of storm the GFS has been spitting out.
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We're really not in phase 5. The MJO doesn't have any effect on this pattern
 
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