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Pattern Dazzling December

BullCityWx said:
Just to play devils advocate, the energy at 500MB on the GEFS has moved from roughly the Maryland panhandle to Dulles-ish to roughly Yanceyville in the last three successive runs by 18z on next Friday.
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The Euro moved a 340 decameter PV 3000 miles east in 24 hours the other day.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
1 isn’t like the others View attachment 127018View attachment 127019
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But one is hanging out in between:

500h_anom.conus.png
 
CaryWx said:
That may take a weekend's worth of runs
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Oh.. I agree. Everything that I’ve ever learned about studying the climo of winter storms tells me that the first system should cut and then we get our window for a winter storm several days after. It is hard to take the GFS seriously, but now it’s ensembles come back to it.
 
Rain Cold said:
Normally, I have one foot out the door when models are showing long range great arctic cold periods and 7 day snowstorms. It makes sense to be skeptical of those things, since like was pointed out earlier, the cold always seems to back off as we head closer and the storm track always seems to shift west and north. That's pretty typical to see, so it's understandable and reasonable to not get too excited about historic patterns showing up.

That said, we have a lot of anomalous blocking showing up, which, if real, makes depictions of anomalous patterns somewhat more believable. Now I'm not going to stand ten toes down in the sand on historic stretches of cold and blizzards. But given the support in the guidance and apparent configuration of teleconnections, an unusually cold and stormy pattern is more likely to be real than normal, IMO. When you couple that with the fact that we usually can't buy a fast start to winter, it's already been plenty cold, and Christmas is just around the corner, we have some exciting times ahead.

Even if it doesn't work out like we all hope, at least we're not waiting until late January to get the party started this year.
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This really would be against climo down this way. Close, right on the edge of where climo say yes, but, yeah, it's a stand alone storm for these parts, and, like you say, given the pattern quite possible. Climo said no way to your storm, for me anyway, but you pulled it off, so strange things do happen, and in this case, make some kind of sense, lol. I remember decent storms between Xmas and New Years Day, but only your storm at Xmas and before. Larry says there were a few pretty good ones scattered in since the late 1800's, even some I should remember, but I'm pretty sure this one, as depicted would push climo pretty far. And anyway, most storms with me, if I didn't sled it, it didn't happen, lol, so it would have to stick out like snow on Xmas. This would be a Jan/Feb type storm way out ahead.
 
Hoping for system 2 to produce. The cold weather will be great for the Holiday but already seeing some moderation in temperatures reminds me of last year. But as many have said opportunities exist in the next few weeks.
 
a lot of that is because 2nd system still 9-10 days out, most non-gfs ops end at hr 240. CMC had our man right before model ended:

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GFS had our shortwave, but it got caught up in some baja low chicanery
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as it turns out... lot of kinks to work out but models to wit still have
a. a western ridge and big eastern trough
b. lot of cold air
c. at some point, a shortwave entering and diving through the rockies

which is about all you can ask for 10 days out
 
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