You really can’t ask for a better look than the GEFS at hr 270.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Usmeagle2005
Member
Wondering how it moves coming through (if it comes through) Mississippi. I’ll take it thought.
This is how you like a good winter storm to progress in the SE … a while of pattern recognition and model waffling .. as you get closer with time the pattern seems more absolute.. snow mean begins showing up but nothing aggressive.. a possible fail in modeling (slight panic) .. progressing snow means on all global model ensemble means .. then a slow uptick in these as we get closer. Let’s cross our fingers we can cash in this December boys and girls.
Definitely lots of support for the Bouncy Corn wave. Great track as well for most of the board.
mydoortotheworld
Member
I’m pulling for the bouncycorn wave, at least for N GA
griteater
Member
So I'm experimenting a bit with putting in graphical form the number of ensemble members that show a winter storm over 2 day periods
Here is the area that I used for determining whether the member was a winter storm hit (sorry for those to the west, etc). I simply viewed the precip type maps that showed all of the ensemble members, and I kept a tally of each winter storm hit (snow or ice) in this blue zone.
Here is what I came up with for the 12z model runs - GEFS / CMCE / EPS. So, we can see from this run that the most hits showed up for Dec 22-23. The total number of hits for Dec 22-23 was 27 of the 100 ensemble members across all 3 models (i.e. 27% of the members showed a winter storm for Dec 22-23).
A few things:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total
This is the type of ensemble member precip type output that I reviewed for determining the numbers (this image is from the new 18z GEFS - I see some have already been posted)
Here is the area that I used for determining whether the member was a winter storm hit (sorry for those to the west, etc). I simply viewed the precip type maps that showed all of the ensemble members, and I kept a tally of each winter storm hit (snow or ice) in this blue zone.
Here is what I came up with for the 12z model runs - GEFS / CMCE / EPS. So, we can see from this run that the most hits showed up for Dec 22-23. The total number of hits for Dec 22-23 was 27 of the 100 ensemble members across all 3 models (i.e. 27% of the members showed a winter storm for Dec 22-23).
A few things:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total
This is the type of ensemble member precip type output that I reviewed for determining the numbers (this image is from the new 18z GEFS - I see some have already been posted)
Bangers
Great info there… thanksSo I'm experimenting a bit with putting in graphical form the number of ensemble members that show a winter storm over 2 day periods
Here is the area that I used for determining whether the member was a winter storm hit (sorry for those to the west, etc). I simply viewed the precip type maps that showed all of the ensemble members, and I kept a tally of each winter storm hit (snow or ice) in this blue zone.
Here is what I came up with for the 12z model runs - GEFS / CMCE / EPS. So, we can see from this run that the most hits showed up for Dec 22-23. The total number of hits for Dec 22-23 was 27 of the 100 ensemble members across all 3 models (i.e. 27% of the members showed a winter storm for Dec 22-23).
A few things:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total
This is the type of ensemble member precip type output that I reviewed for determining the numbers (this image is from the new 18z GEFS - I see some have already been posted)
Gefs loaded, like a bigstick and Logan Elliot diaper ! 
Worth noting the 18z euro took a step in the right direction with the stuff diving in western Canada, and more ridging in that vicinity, positive 18z trends here ! 
I’m spending Christmas in San Antonio with my sisters family so if you ask the 12z or 18z, I win either way.
Much more improved on 18z EPS !
whatalife
Moderator
Nice storm signal for the time period between the 22nd-26th.
griteater
Member
Y’all like Aleutian Lows or Aleutian Ridges?
Don’t answer that ?
Don’t answer that ?
Holy guacamole! Even the small events as modeled have a great track.
I think something else needs to be said, if the modeled snow pack on the GEFS verifies, we are gonna be looking at blistering cold. The models won’t resolve that at this range.
That's a fairly decent low they got over there in the Aleutians.
griteater
Member
Closest comparison I dug up for that big ridge ball above Alaska was Jan-Feb 1970 (Jan 1970 was on Fro’s CPC analog list)
So -4 and -5 departures for a two month avg,is kind of a big thing??