griteater
Member
I was just translating the Cold Rain vibe, I'm good with the pattern, haha. CR always remains balanced, we need that
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Well thats a wrap, see yall next yr.
I remember this as models were all predicting a block around New Years but it didn’t come until around the 13th right before our storm on the 16th. It seems like they are off on pattern changes by 2-3 weeks. Somewhere somebody has the data that can prove this.
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bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Don't discount the possibility for some changes with the Dec 18 suppressed system.. We've had our fair share of these things trending NW at this timeframe. Left image is GFS forecast 144 hours ahead of the December 2017 snowstorm.
It's a beaut, Clark. It's a beaut. It does match Allan Huffmans analog as of yesterday which showed the best cold shifting east around Christmas. I'm not sold on the 20th-23rd.
This seems to be evolving exactly like the 2018 cold outbreak! As Jimmy alluded to earlier! The head fakes with the ‘too quick’ pattern changes on the models, almost same exact time around the holidays and then it finally happened after the New Year, and was one of the greatest week to 10 days of cold I can remember in my lifetime! So try to stay positive and ride the ensembles!
Hypsometric
Member
Just for score keeping, the UKMET has performed well at D7 recently. It also performed quite well with Ian and upper level interactions that ultimately pulled it further east that many other modeling suites were missing for some time, including most of the EPS (although a subset of it's members did pick up on that earlier).
UKMET - 12/11 | 00z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
ECMWF - 12/11 | 00z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
Compared to today's 12z runs....
UKMET - 12/12 | 12z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
ECMWF - 12/12 | 12z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
UKMET - 12/11 | 00z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
ECMWF - 12/11 | 00z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
Compared to today's 12z runs....
UKMET - 12/12 | 12z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
ECMWF - 12/12 | 12z run, valid: 12/18 @ 00z:
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
18z GFS looking more suppressed thru 138 hours, similar to ECMWF/Ukmet
Hypsometric
Member
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
1052mb+ high rolling into the plains with a low forming in Mexico... decent look so far @ hour 159
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Aw man so close
WXinCanton
Member
So close for North GA.
Brent
Member
Where do I sign up?
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Love the little random 2" snow near Peachtree City.So close for North GA.
Chilly rain. Mountains could score bigly with this look. Timing is everything for everyone else.
Can't have the high pressure in Barrow and expect to get snow here, even if it is 3729 mb strong. Storms are not going to track due east along the Gulf coast and off the eastern seaboard with that kind of setup.
Chilly rain. Mountains could score bigly with this look. Timing is everything for everyone else.View attachment 125860
I think this storm will continue to shift south with future runs feeling block up above.
I think this storm will continue to shift south with future runs feeling block up above.
Ignore the snow, the GEFS and GFS have improved at H5 from there prior runs 
As Myfrotho704 said, The 18z GFS was much improved! +PNA is stronger and the Aleutian low is further east. I know a lot of people have been bringing up February 2021, but remember that pattern had an Aleutian ridge.
griteater
Member
No way man, you miss out on all the fun if you do that. Classic Manitoba Mauler storm here on the GFS
