Pattern Dazzling December

[LukeBarrette]

No phase = it dies out.
Definitely need to hope for a stronger piece of energy

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Stormvista has January 1988 as the top analog and January 2011 as the third.
View attachment 125951

Both huge events for NGA

 

[Snowfan]

GFS now shows a -PNA.

 

[Brent]

Inside 200 hours!!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC looks much improved, speeding up the flow and more western ridging
Also GFS has a nice snow event across the SE

 

[BufordWX]

Definitely gotta watch early next week. Let’s see what other models show tonight.

 

[Oconeexman]

View attachment 125964

Hot off the presses!

That's the no phaser no warm nose ne ga/upstate sc special

 

[Pilotwx]

Hey, Big Frosty! guess what has already showed up on the Models?

 

[Ollie Williams]

GFS now shows a -PNA.

Not really a negative PNA. A negative PNA is characterized by the difference between highest heights over the eastern pacific. So really, you look at the difference in heights between the US, and the lower heights east of Hawaii. The lower heights are still there, there just slightly weaker than 18z.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

not terrible. Not perfect but a textbook Miller track. Big nor’easter. Through the panhandle, transfer off the coast of Savannah then up the Gulf Stream. ??

 

[Myfrotho704_]

TPV trending better, and energy around Baja trending better for the GFS storm ?????

 

[Chazwin]

That occurred during a +NAO

+NAO, +AO, and -PNA

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Glad that first one worked out under 200hr because that crap it just pulled at 240 was disgusting and Its getting tossed

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More Aleutian low, more +PNA this gefs run

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I think this is the recipe for @Tarheel1 to measure snow in feet

 

[Chazwin]

Glad that first one worked out under 200hr because that crap it just pulled at 240 was disgusting and Its getting tossedView attachment 125978View attachment 125977

So a low can move due north directly into a block… geez this model is awful after 5 days.

 

[bouncycorn]

Just fired up a 192hr medium-res MMFS run.. the 144 hr didn't really show much here. Should have output in a few hours!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

So a low can move due north directly into a block… geez this model is awful after 5 days.

What even is this? ??‍

 

[Brent]

I have no words for this run

 

[Chazwin]

Just fired up a 192hr medium-res MMFS run.. the 144 hr didn't really show much here. Should have output in a few hours!

If I remember correctly from last January, your model appeared to have a bias to suppress systems. Is this the case and if so has there been updates to it?