• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

Myfrotho704_ said:
Like I said before. It’s a good thing we have a strong Aleutian low entering the picture because otherwise, we’d be on our way to failing lol View attachment 125780
Click to expand...
Definitely different from last year at this time when we had that Aleutian death ridge up. Anyway… things still looking great with teleconnections going forward… it actually appears now that we’re going to have a substantial period of -AO/-NAO/+PNA coming up… it’s been awhile
 
Hypsometric said:
100% agree. It may be our saving grace because it is slowly becoming evident we are going to have to have something to kick the tpv east vs. having it consolidate there initially.

After what happened the past couple of years, I'm still nervous about that prospect but guidance is so far pretty consistent in showing that kick happening.
Click to expand...
Yeh same. We do have +EAMT on our side which favors extension, last January had me nervous for the same aspect but that kick happened from the Aleutain low that resulted from +EAMT and it’s associated jet extension. When we should worry is if we quickly start seeing -EAMT and it return quick and feeds back quick, as that’s a retraction phase, but that kick is favored with the subseasonal pattern so there’s that
 
Not a bad look at this lead time:
prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
Robert West said:
We are definitely at least in the beginning stage of a trend to a SE ridge flex around the 20th. But the Icon shows a monster front coming down.
Click to expand...
That SER flex actually coincides with a very brief dip of the MJO into very low amp phase 3… it quickly loops back into COD and heads for low amp phase 8,1 again. We might honestly want to see a bit of a flex at that time as there has been some signals of a storm but suppressed way too far south
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 125783
Click to expand...
I'll take my chances. The bagginess in the 4 corners region could pop a storm. If not, then our favorable pattern would be slower to develop with the trough axis further west initially. It's so different than the fast flow of the previous few years, it's almost difficult to figure out what to root for. The slower the pattern to develop, the longer it may hold on when we are historically at our coldest?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top