• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

normally I would be concerned that we dig energy out too far west, but that pacific/Aleutian trough kicks everything east and cutoffs the block north of AK, which speeds up the flow under the developing cutoff and ends up popping a +PNA. A staple of our pacific fails is an Aleutian ridge or cutoff to far west in the pacific. Not seeing that this time, we could dump the energy west and due to the kick the pac trough delivers, we still win. My biggest concern is, we dump a consolidated TPV out west that’s hard to move, but all in all, It’s last January evolution all over again
 
Yeah this is a flat out impressive temp anomaly for the period around Christmas.
d752183a87b6a68b94313bb77f82e7ab.jpg


Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
 
ILMRoss said:
View attachment 125761
i think there's still a little time to trend this into a sneaky thing to track
View attachment 125762
GFS ens shows a nascent northward trend. no threat to be a big dog i'm keeping an eye on things
Click to expand...
I was just thinking in the back of my head that not too many significant periods lead off with a big dog. Usually there's a small one or two leading up to the main event. Of course, thats purely anecdotal evidence.
 
BullCityWx said:
I was just thinking in the back of my head that not too many significant periods lead off with a big dog. Usually there's a small one or two leading up to the main event. Of course, thats purely anecdotal evidence.
Click to expand...
it always does feel like we need to dip our toe into things. we have so many folks in this thread doing yeoman's work in the long range game that this little system, which is our bread and butter (little shortwave that trends into a more amped/more defined and further north solution) is sliding under the radar some. could be nothing but i'm looking forward to the 12zs. would somebody do me a favor and pull up the 0z euro ensembles for some place like, jackson ms
 
ILMRoss said:
it always does feel like we need to dip our toe into things. we have so many folks in this thread doing yeoman's work in the long range game that this little system, which is our bread and butter (little shortwave that trends into a more amped/more defined and further north solution) is sliding under the radar some. could be nothing but i'm looking forward to the 12zs. would somebody do me a favor and pull up the 0z euro ensembles for some place like, jackson ms
Click to expand...
ecmwf-ensemble-KJAN-indiv_snow-0803200.png

Tupelo looks better

ecmwf-ensemble-KTUP-indiv_snow-0803200.png
 
Hate to be the downer here, but I'm not liking at all the trends I'm seeing in regard to hurdle #2 that I discussed.
Hypsometric said:
It *appears* as though we are going to avoid the first hurdle I mentioned.

Hurdle #2 (as Fro has mentioned also) looks to be where the injection of the second TPV and consolidation of the trapped vortex under the block locates. Further east would be much more ideal as that would establish the mean trough axis further east as we head into the week of Christmas where our first real potential likely exists.

Last night's 00z EPS was dumping in the west, but today's 12z took a step east. We need another one or two of those to match the 12z GEFS.

View attachment 125607

View attachment 125608

View attachment 125609

This may be the next crucial hurdle to traverse to get where we want to go.
Click to expand...

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_fh126_trend (1).gif

eps_z500_vort_namer_fh120_trend (1).gif

The 6z GFS just as an example also took another step in that direction at 138 (a borderline usable deterministic forecast hour):

gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh138_trend.gif

Which translated to this trend later:

gfs_z500_vort_namer_fh180_trend.gif

If this energy is going to dig southwest off the Pacific NW instead of congealing with our first system sliding east, it's at best going to delay setting up the favorable west-based -NAO. Not a fan and hope this changes, but once we start getting towards D5 you have to be alarmed at least somewhat at such trends suddenly appearing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top