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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Euro is looking worse. 
Another Seattle TPV… how are they doing this 
Initially yes but when everything gets kicked out .. we will get the cold hammer .. then we see if we can do anything with that cold
By the time everything gets kicked out, a new one will be moving back into the kick-out position, at least the way it looks to me.
a few more moves like this and somebody might be in business 
This is almost the exact progression as last January to the +PNA, AK ridge gets squished and pushed poleward and cuts off, flow speeds up under 
Once the pac block gets north of barrow we should be fine. It's the same progression as the last few ninas
The ridge axis is still too far west. The top rolls over and directs the flow back westward. The ULL NW of HI is no good. It needs to be farther east. All of this argues for lower heights in the west or maybe central US eventually. The block in NE Canada should squash the SE ridge, but the storm track is still not going to be favorable until you move the western ridge axis quite a bit east. There are ways to get there. But we keep wanting to get drawn back to maps that look like this, for some reason.
packfan98
Moderator
Here's where the Euro ended:
Very similar evolution to last year/January, basically how I mentioned it above, I like it
The week of Christmas, especially close to Christmas still holds tons of potential...Here's where the Euro ended:
Yep even with the fail factor in play we end up with this. Blocking forcing storm track south and a 1070 high pressure drilling in from the NW .. I will take this especially being shown on king euroHere's where the Euro ended:
Absolutely fine with failing on the 20 system if we get this look a few days later. I mean this is just tremendous this ain’t going to cut into that HIGH (and while I know there will be a lot of people who say oh nooo delayed and denied coming.. it’s just not the same here in this scenario as what people have alluded to before the progression of a pattern like this is something we’ve seen and it has support from exactly what we went through last year) 
A 1070? I know it's on the 10-day but that's a baller
late dec 2021 and next week… 
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
The differences between GEFS and GFS are interesting.. GFS op being more similar to the ECMWF op and the GEFS having much more blocking.
Main difference begins around 144-156 hrs. GEFS has a strong blocking high pressure connecting from the pacific Northwest thru the plains and into the southeast.. this keeps cutters 'at bay' and allows the blocking to become much more pronounced later in the run across the US, eventually forcing a very conducive storm track along the gulf coast.
GFS and ECMWF ops both have weaker blocking during that first period which allows a cutter to form in the lee of the rockies and push thru the midwest and into Canada, essentially preventing or delaying the blocking from becoming established.
One thing to note, however, is that regardless of this behavior, they all eventually have a strong blocking pattern across much of the US.
Main difference begins around 144-156 hrs. GEFS has a strong blocking high pressure connecting from the pacific Northwest thru the plains and into the southeast.. this keeps cutters 'at bay' and allows the blocking to become much more pronounced later in the run across the US, eventually forcing a very conducive storm track along the gulf coast.
GFS and ECMWF ops both have weaker blocking during that first period which allows a cutter to form in the lee of the rockies and push thru the midwest and into Canada, essentially preventing or delaying the blocking from becoming established.
One thing to note, however, is that regardless of this behavior, they all eventually have a strong blocking pattern across much of the US.
But let’s add a sprinkle more -NAO and a pinch of stronger -AO/-EPO in the mix so we can add some gasoline to explosion
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 1070mb sfc high over western Canada on today's 12z ECMWF run completely obliterates previous SLP records for December.
